Assessing Barriers and Opportunities for Ecosystem Based Approach to Adaptation in High Altitude City of Thimphu

Scientific studies to understand challenges and opportunities for adaptation are crucial for adapting to climate impacts and averting disasters in cities. In this study, we attempt to assess baseline social and environmental conditions, identify challenges and barriers, and recommend ecosystem based opportunities for adaptation. The city’s infrastructure is poorly planned triggering congestion (which leads to increased carbon emission, road rage, etc.), flooding of sewage systems exposing humans to infections. Majority of the poor who live in informal settlements lack adequate access to basic facilities turn to natural resources thereby depleting the environment around the city. This leads to the loss of ecosystem services and protection against natural hazards such as flash floods, landslides, and forest fires which affects the vulnerable groups disproportionately. To improve socio-ecological resilience to cope with changing climate, the study also identified ecosystem based adaptation interventions such as urban agriculture, agroforestry, greening projects, resettlement of informal settlements, education on coping strategies, and building institutional, technical, and individual capacities to be integrated into climate adaptation strategies into development plans. The study also recommended that the city authority secure adequate funds and build capacity to plan ecosystem based adaptation and implement interventions

The use of camera traps for estimating tiger and leopard populations in the high altitude mountains of Bhutan

We used camera traps in combination with capture-recapture data analysis to provide the first reliable density estimates for tigers and leopards from the high altitude and rugged terrain in Bhutan's Jigme Singye Wangchuck National Park. Fifty days of camera trapping in each of five study zones collapsed into two trapping blocks, resulted in a sampling effort of 4050 trap days. Camera trapping yielded 17 tiger photos (14 left flanked and 3 right flanked) and 48 leopard photos (25 left flanked and 23 right flanked). Using photos of these left flank, the closed heterogeneous Jackknife Model Mh was the best fit for the capture history data. A capture probability (̑ p) of 0.04 was obtained for both tigers and leopards, thus generating population size (N) of 8 tigers (SE=2.12) and 16 leopards (SE=2.91) with densities of 0.52 tiger 100 km⁻² and 1.04 leopard 100 km⁻². Photographic evidence indicates that tigers and leopards did not overlap in their spatial use of space. Tigers preferred less disturbed areas located further away from settlements, while leopards appeared to be more resilient to disturbances in so far as they were found nearer to human settlements. Camera trapping using a capture-recapture framework was an effective tool for assessing population sizes for tiger and leopard in low density areas such as Bhutan

Multi-Temporal Analysis of Past and Future Land-Cover Changes of the Third Pole

In the past few decades, both natural and human influences have contributed to the unpredictable rates of land use and land-cover change (LUCC) in glacially devastated places. Monitoring and identifying the geographic and temporal land-cover changes and driving forces in this unique type of area may help to give the scientific basis needed to understand the effects of climate change and human activities on LUCC. The Third Pole is one such landscape that provides inevitable key ecosystem services to over 2 billion people in Asia. However, this important landscape is increasingly being threatened by the impacts of climate change. Policy and program responses to the Third Pole’s mounting socioeconomic challenges are inadequate and lack scientific evidence. Using the land-change model (LCM) and historical data from 1992 onwards, our study attempted to (i) detect the spatial patterns of land use and land-cover changes in the Third Pole from 1992 to 2020; and (ii) project them into 2060. Our analysis shows that the land use and land-cover types in the Third pole are undergoing changes. About 0.07% of the snow and ice have melted in the last three decades, indicating global warming. This melt has resulted in increasing water bodies (0.08%), especially as glacial lakes. This has significantly increased the risk of glacial outburst floods. Other key alpine land-cover types that decreased are bare land (0.6%) and agricultural land (0.05%). These land types represent important habitats for wild flora and fauna, grazing land for livestock, and food for nomads, and their loss will directly degrade ecological services and the health and wellbeing of the nomads. Land cover of forest, shrubs, and scanty vegetation have all increased by 0.3%, 0.02%, and 0.77%, respectively, inducing socio-ecological changes in the Third pole mountains. Further predication analysis showed that snow and ice, along with bare land, will continue to recede whereas forest, grassland, water bodies, shrubland, sparse vegetation, and settlement will increase. These results indicate the increasing impact of global warming that will continue to change the Third Pole. These changes have serious implications for designing adaptation and mitigation interventions in the mountains. We recommend more detailed research to investigate the underlying factors that are changing the Third Pole to develop policy and programs to help humans, livestock, and biodiversity adapt to the changes in these remote and harsh mountains. This will also help to mitigate the effects on downstream communities

Multi-Temporal Analysis of Past and Future Land-Cover Changes of the Third Pole

In the past few decades, both natural and human influences have contributed to the unpredictable rates of land use and land-cover change (LUCC) in glacially devastated places. Monitoring and identifying the geographic and temporal land-cover changes and driving forces in this unique type of area may help to give the scientific basis needed to understand the effects of climate change and human activities on LUCC. The Third Pole is one such landscape that provides inevitable key ecosystem services to over 2 billion people in Asia. However, this important landscape is increasingly being threatened by the impacts of climate change. Policy and program responses to the Third Pole’s mounting socioeconomic challenges are inadequate and lack scientific evidence. Using the land-change model (LCM) and historical data from 1992 onwards, our study attempted to (i) detect the spatial patterns of land use and land-cover changes in the Third Pole from 1992 to 2020; and (ii) project them into 2060. Our analysis shows that the land use and land-cover types in the Third pole are undergoing changes. About 0.07% of the snow and ice have melted in the last three decades, indicating global warming. This melt has resulted in increasing water bodies (0.08%), especially as glacial lakes. This has significantly increased the risk of glacial outburst floods. Other key alpine land-cover types that decreased are bare land (0.6%) and agricultural land (0.05%). These land types represent important habitats for wild flora and fauna, grazing land for livestock, and food for nomads, and their loss will directly degrade ecological services and the health and wellbeing of the nomads. Land cover of forest, shrubs, and scanty vegetation have all increased by 0.3%, 0.02%, and 0.77%, respectively, inducing socio-ecological changes in the Third pole mountains. Further predication analysis showed that snow and ice, along with bare land, will continue to recede whereas forest, grassland, water bodies, shrubland, sparse vegetation, and settlement will increase. These results indicate the increasing impact of global warming that will continue to change the Third Pole. These changes have serious implications for designing adaptation and mitigation interventions in the mountains. We recommend more detailed research to investigate the underlying factors that are changing the Third Pole to develop policy and programs to help humans, livestock, and biodiversity adapt to the changes in these remote and harsh mountains. This will also help to mitigate the effects on downstream communities

Low Carbon Development Pathways in Indian Agriculture

Indian agriculture sector is a significant emitter of Green House Gas (GHG), which is projected to increase by 47% between 2011 and 2020. In response to this, India has committed itself to voluntarily reduce its emissions intensity (emissions per unit GDP) between 20 to 25 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. This would require rapid and significant scaling up of mitigation efforts including the agriculture sector, which remains a challenge, as mitigation is not a priority in Indian agriculture. The study found out that in-spite of numerous mitigation technologies that are readily available for takeoff, the scale of adoption and deployment is far from sufficient to meet the emission targets set by the Government of India, mainly due to lack of financial incentives, capacity building of farmers, and an enabling policy at different levels. This study identified a suite of feasible interventions for promoting low carbon agriculture such as: low tillage systems as it has negative costs due to savings on tillage and fuel; introduction of superior livestock breeds to reduce numbers (especially unproductive cattle) and increase yield; use of livestock wastes to produce energy for cooking and heating through bio-gas technology can not only reduce methane emission but also save electricity costs for the households and; introduction of carbon credits and exploration of domestic carbon markets. An enabling policy environment must be created for these interventions to take off

Land Use and Land Cover Change Detection and Prediction in the Kathmandu District of Nepal Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Understanding land use and land cover changes has become a necessity in managing and monitoring natural resources and development especially urban planning. Remote sensing and geographical information systems are proven tools for assessing land use and land cover changes that help planners to advance sustainability. Our study used remote sensing and geographical information system to detect and predict land use and land cover changes in one of the world’s most vulnerable and rapidly growing city of Kathmandu in Nepal. We found that over a period of 20 years (from 1990 to 2010), the Kathmandu district has lost 9.28% of its forests, 9.80% of its agricultural land and 77% of its water bodies. Significant amounts of these losses have been absorbed by the expanding urbanized areas, which has gained 52.47% of land. Predictions of land use and land cover change trends for 2030 show worsening trends with forest, agriculture and water bodies to decrease by an additional 14.43%, 16.67% and 25.83%, respectively. The highest gain in 2030 is predicted for urbanized areas at 18.55%. Rapid urbanization—coupled with lack of proper planning and high rural-urban migration—is the key driver of these changes. These changes are associated with loss of ecosystem services which will negatively impact human wellbeing in the city. We recommend city planners to mainstream ecosystem-based adaptation and mitigation into urban plans supported by strong policy and funds

Long-term trend of and correlation between vegetation greenness and climate variables in Asia based on satellite data

Satellite data has been used to ascertain trends and correlations between climate change and vegetation greenness in Asia. Our study utilized 33-year (1982–2014) AVHRR-GIMMS (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer–Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies) NDVI3g and CRU TS (Climatic Research Unit Time Series) climate variable (temperature, rainfall, and potential evapotranspiration) time series. First, we estimated the overall trends for vegetation greenness and climate variables and analyzed trends during summer (April–October), winter (November–March), and the entire year. Second, we carried out correlation and regression analyses to detect correlations between vegetation greenness and climate variables. Our study revealed an increasing trend (0.05–0.28) in temperature in northeastern India (bordering Bhutan), Southeast Bhutan, Yunnan Province of China, Northern Myanmar, Central Cambodia, northern Laos, southern Vietnam, eastern Iran, southern Afghanistan, and southern Pakistan. However, a decreasing trend in temperature (0.00 to −0.04) was noted for specific areas in southern Asia including Central Myanmar and northwestern Thailand and the Guangxi, Southern Gansu, and Shandong provinces of China. The results also indicated an increasing trend for evapotranspiration and air temperature accompanied by a decreasing trend for vegetation greenness and rainfall. Increases in both the mean annual signal and annual cycle occurred in the forest, herbaceous, and cropland areas of India, Northwest China, and eastern Kazakhstan. The temperature was found to be the main driver of the changing vegetation greenness in Kazakhstan, northern Mongolia, Northeast and Central China, North Korea, South Korea, and northern Japan, showing an indirect relationship (R = 0.84–0.96). • Temperature is the main climatic variable affecting vegetation greenness. • A downward trend in vegetation greenness was observed during summer (April–October). • Temperature showed an upward trend across many areas of Asia during the study period. • In winter, rainfall showed downward and upward trends in different parts of Asia. Method name: Temporal trend analysis, Statistical analysis, Keywords: Vegetation greenness, Precipitation, Evaporation, Temperature, Correlation, Tren

Assessing the Vulnerability of Nomadic Pastoralists’ Livelihoods to Climate Change in the Zhetysu Region of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is historically a livestock-producing country. For the first time in this study, we attempted to assess the vulnerability of nomadic pastoralists in Kazakhstan to climate change using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI). To collect data, a survey of 100 household heads was conducted on fourteen main components and fifty-six sub-components. The study was conducted in the period from May to July 2022 in the Panfilov (PD) and Kerbulak (KD) districts of the Zhetysu region, where the Altyn-Emel State National Nature Park is located. The results of the study were combined using a composite index method and comparing different vulnerability indicators. Natural disasters, which manifest as the effects of drought, temperature fluctuations, and precipitation, contribute most to the vulnerability of nomads living in remote mountain areas with a complex infrastructure. According to the results of the study, nomads of both regions have high vulnerability in such components as natural resources, human–wildlife conflict, housing type, agriculture and food security, and social networks. High vulnerability in the “Finances and incomes” component was found only in the pastoralists of the PD. Identifying the levels of vulnerability of nomadic households to climate change, as well as understanding their adaptation strategies, will enable pastoralists to gain access to new ways of reducing the vulnerability of their livelihoods. Currently, the country practices a strategy to reduce the vulnerability of pastoral nomads’ livelihoods by insuring livestock against natural or natural hazards and other risks; involving the population in environmental-protection activities and helping them to obtain sustainable financial resources when they refuse to hunt endangered animals; non-agricultural diversification of high-altitude ecotourism in rural areas in their area of residence; and improving financial literacy by providing training and providing information on low-interest loans under state projects and livestock subsidy mechanisms, as well as training in organizing cooperatives within the framework of legal status, which will ensure them stable sales of products and income growth. The results of software research serve as a basis for taking measures within the framework of the development and implementation of state programs for climate change adaptation of the Environmental Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan, where agriculture is one of the priority areas of management