Mixture models for distance sampling detection functions

Funding: EPSRC DTGWe present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Prevalence and Determinants of Obesity among Primary School Children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Childhood obesity has increased dramatically and has become a public health concern worldwide. Childhood obesity is likely to persist through adulthood and may lead to early onset of NCDs. However, there is paucity of data on obesity among primary school children in Tanzania. This study assessed the prevalence and determinants of obesity among primary school children in Dar es Salaam. A cross sectional study was conducted among school age children in randomly selected schools in Dar es Salaam. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were taken using standard procedures. Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters (kg/m2). Child obesity was defined as BMI at or above 95th percentile for age and sex. Socio-demographic characteristics of children were determined using a structured questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to determine association between independent variables with obesity among primary school children in Dar es Salaam. A total of 446 children were included in the analysis. The mean age of the participants was 11.1±2.0 years and 53.1% were girls. The mean BMI, SBP and DBP were 16.6±4.0 kg/m2, 103.9±10.3mmHg and 65.6±8.2mmHg respectively. The overall prevalence of child obesity was 5.2% and was higher among girls (6.3%) compared to boys (3.8%). Obese children had significantly higher mean values for age (p=0.042), systolic and diastolic blood pressures (all p<0.001). Most obese children were from households with fewer children (p=0.019) and residing in urban areas (p=0.002). Controlling for other variables, age above 10 years (AOR=3.3, 95% CI=1.5-7.2), female sex (AOR=2.6, 95% CI=1.4-4.9), urban residence (AOR=2.5, 95% CI=1.2-5.3) and having money to spend at school (AOR=2.6, 95% CI=1.4-4.8) were significantly associated with child obesity. The prevalence of childhood obesity in this population was found to be low. However, children from urban schools and girls were proportionately more obese compared to their counterparts. Primary preventive measures for childhood obesity should start early in childhood and address socioeconomic factors of parents contributing to childhood obesity

Protocol for: Sheffield Obesity Trial (SHOT): A randomised controlled trial of exercise therapy and mental health outcomes in obese adolescents [ISRCNT83888112]

Background While obesity is known to have many physiological consequences, the psychopathology of this condition has not featured prominently in the literature. Cross-sectional studies have indicated that obese children have increased odds of experiencing poor quality of life and mental health. However, very limited trial evidence has examined the efficacy of exercise therapy for enhancing mental health outcomes in obese children, and the Sheffield Obesity Trial (SHOT) will provide evidence of the efficacy of supervised exercise therapy in obese young people aged 11–16 years versus usual care and an attention-control intervention. Method/design SHOT is a randomised controlled trial where obese young people are randomised to receive; (1) exercise therapy, (2) attention-control intervention (involving body-conditioning exercises and games that do not involve aerobic activity), or (3) usual care. The exercise therapy and attention-control sessions will take place three times per week for eight weeks and a six-week home programme will follow this. Ninety adolescents aged between 11–16 years referred from a children's hospital for evaluation of obesity or via community advertisements will need to complete the study. Participants will be recruited according to the following criteria: (1) clinically obese and aged 11–16 years (Body Mass Index Centile > 98th UK standard) (2) no medical condition that would restrict ability to be active three times per week for eight weeks and (3) not diagnosed with insulin dependent diabetes or receiving oral steroids. Assessments of outcomes will take place at baseline, as well as four (intervention midpoint) and eight weeks (end of intervention) from baseline. Participants will be reassessed on outcome measures five and seven months from baseline. The primary endpoint is physical self-perceptions. Secondary outcomes include physical activity, self-perceptions, depression, affect, aerobic fitness and BMI

Role of thoracic ultrasonography in pleurodesis pathways for malignant pleural effusions (SIMPLE): an open-label, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Pleurodesis is done as an in-patient procedure to control symptomatic recurrent malignant pleural effusion (MPE) and has a success rate of 75-80%. Thoracic ultrasonography has been shown in a small study to predict pleurodesis success early by demonstrating cessation of lung sliding (a normal sign seen in healthy patients, lung sliding indicates normal movement of the lung inside the thorax). We aimed to investigate whether the use of thoracic ultrasonography in pleurodesis pathways could shorten hospital stay in patients with MPE undergoing pleurodesis. METHODS: The Efficacy of Sonographic and Biological Pleurodesis Indicators of Malignant Pleural Effusion (SIMPLE) trial was an open-label, randomised controlled trial done in ten respiratory centres in the UK and one respiratory centre in the Netherlands. Adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with confirmed MPE who required talc pleurodesis via either a chest tube or as poudrage during medical thorascopy were eligible. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to thoracic ultrasonography-guided care or standard care via an online platform using a minimisation algorithm. In the intervention group, daily thoracic ultrasonography examination for lung sliding in nine regions was done to derive an adherence score: present (1 point), questionable (2 points), or absent (3 points), with a lowest possible score of 9 (preserved sliding) and a highest possible score of 27 (complete absence of sliding); the chest tube was removed if the score was more than 20. In the standard care group, tube removal was based on daily output volume (per British Thoracic Society Guidelines). The primary outcome was length of hospital stay, and secondary outcomes were pleurodesis failure at 3 months, time to tube removal, all-cause mortality, symptoms and quality-of-life scores, and cost-effectiveness of thoracic ultrasonography-guided care. All outcomes were assessed in the modified intention-to-treat population (patients with missing data excluded), and a non-inferiority analysis of pleurodesis failure was done in the per-protocol population. This trial was registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN16441661. FINDINGS: Between Dec 31, 2015, and Dec 17, 2019, 778 patients were assessed for eligibility and 313 participants (165 [53%] male) were recruited and randomly assigned to thoracic ultrasonography-guided care (n=159) or standard care (n=154). In the modified intention-to-treat population, the median length of hospital stay was significantly shorter in the intervention group (2 days [IQR 2-4]) than in the standard care group (3 days [2-5]; difference 1 day [95% CI 1-1]; p<0·0001). In the per-protocol analysis, thoracic ultrasonography-guided care was non-inferior to standard care in terms of pleurodesis failure at 3 months, which occurred in 27 (29·7%) of 91 patients in the intervention group versus 34 (31·2%) of 109 patients in the standard care group (risk difference -1·5% [95% CI -10·2% to 7·2%]; non-inferiority margin 15%). Mean time to chest tube removal in the intervention group was 2·4 days (SD 2·5) versus 3·1 days (2·0) in the standard care group (mean difference -0·72 days [95% CI -1·22 to -0·21]; p=0·0057). There were no significant between-group differences in all-cause mortality, symptom scores, or quality-of-life scores, except on the EQ-5D visual analogue scale, which was significantly lower in the standard care group at 3 months. Although costs were similar between the groups, thoracic ultrasonography-guided care was cost-effective compared with standard care. INTERPRETATION: Thoracic ultrasonography-guided care for pleurodesis in patients with MPE results in shorter hospital stay (compared with the British Thoracic Society recommendation for pleurodesis) without reducing the success rate of the procedure at 3 months. The data support consideration of standard use of thoracic ultrasonography in patients undergoing MPE-related pleurodesis. FUNDING: Marie Curie Cancer Care Committee

Supranuclear eye movements and nystagmus in children: A review of the literature and guide to clinical examination, interpretation of findings and age-appropriate norms.

Abnormal eye movements in children present a significant challenge to Ophthalmologists and other healthcare professionals. Similarly, examination of supra-nuclear eye movements in children and interpretation of any resulting clinical signs can seem very complex. A structured assessment is often lacking although in many cases, simple clinical observations, combined with a basic understanding of the underlying neurology, can hold the key to clinical diagnosis. As the range of underlying diagnoses for children with abnormal eye movements is broad, recognising clinical patterns and understanding their neurological basis is also imperative for ongoing management. Here we present a review and best practice guide for a structured, methodical clinical examination of supranuclear eye movements in children, a guide to clinical interpretation and age-appropriate norms. We also detail the more common specific clinical findings and how they should be interpreted and used to guide further management. In summary, this review will encourage clinicians to combine a structured assessment and a logical interpretation of the resulting clinical signs, in order to recognise patterns of presentation and avoid unnecessary investigations and protracted delays in diagnosis and clinical care

A new insight for monitoring ungulates : density surface modelling of roe deer in a Mediterranean habitat

We would like to thank the University of Aveiro (Department of Biology) and FCT/MEC for the financial support to CESAM RU (UID/AMB/50017) through national funds and, where applicable, co-financed by the FEDER, within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement. TAM is partially funded by FCT, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UID/MAT/00006/2013.Ungulates are especially difficult to monitor, and population estimates are challenging to obtain; nevertheless, such information is fundamental for effective management. This is particularly important for expanding species such as roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), whose populations dramatically increased in number and geographic distribution over the last decades. In an attempt to follow population trends and assess species ecology, important methodological advances were recently achieved by combining line or point sampling with geographic information systems (GIS). In this study, we combined density surface modelling (DSM) with line transect survey to predict roe deer density in northeastern Portugal. This was based on modelling pellet group counts as a function of environmental factors while taking into account the probability of detecting pellets and conversion factors to relate pellet density to animal density. We estimated a global density of 3.01 animals/100 ha (95 % CI 0.37–3.51) with a 32.82 % CV. Roe deer densities increased with increasing distance to roads as well as with higher percentage of cover areas and decreased with increasing distance to human populations. This recently developed spatial method can be advantageous to predict density over space through the identification of key factors influencing species abundance. Furthermore, surface maps for subset areas will enable to visually depict abundance distribution of wild populations. This will enable the assessment of areas where ungulate impacts should be minimized, allowing an adaptive management through time.PostprintPeer reviewe

Whale, whale, everywhere: increasing abundance of western South Atlantic humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in their wintering grounds

The western South Atlantic (WSA) humpback whale population inhabits the coast of Brazil during the breeding and calving season in winter and spring. This population was depleted to near extinction by whaling in the mid-twentieth century. Despite recent signs of recovery, increasing coastal and offshore development pose potential threats to these animals. Therefore, continuous monitoring is needed to assess population status and support conservation strategies. The aim of this work was to present ship-based line-transect estimates of abundance for humpback whales in their WSA breeding ground and to investigate potential changes in population size. Two cruises surveyed the coast of Brazil during August-September in 2008 and 2012. The area surveyed in 2008 corresponded to the currently recognized population breeding area; effort in 2012 was limited due to unfavorable weather conditions. WSA humpback whale population size in 2008 was estimated at 16,410 (CV = 0.228, 95% CI = 10,563–25,495) animals. In order to compare abundance between 2008 and 2012, estimates for the area between Salvador and Cabo Frio, which were consistently covered in the two years, were computed at 15,332 (CV = 0.243, 95% CI = 9,595–24,500) and 19,429 (CV = 0.101, 95% CI = 15,958–23,654) whales, respectively. The difference in the two estimates represents an increase of 26.7% in whale numbers in a 4-year period. The estimated abundance for 2008 is considered the most robust for the WSA humpback whale population because the ship survey conducted in that year minimized bias from various sources. Results presented here indicate that in 2008, the WSA humpback whale population was at least around 60% of its estimated pre-modern whaling abundance and that it may recover to its pre-exploitation size sooner than previously estimated.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Spatial Models of Abundance and Habitat Preferences of Commerson’s and Peale’s Dolphin in Southern Patagonian Waters

Funding: This research was possible with the support of the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Funding for travel to and accommodation for NAD in Aberdeen, Scotland was provided by CONICET and Cetacean Society International. The work of NAD was part of a postdoctoral fellowship funded by CONICET. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

TGFβ pathway limits dedifferentiation following WNT and MAPK pathway activation to suppress intestinal tumourigenesis

Recent studies have suggested increased plasticity of differentiated cells within the intestine to act both as intestinal stem cells (ISCs) and tumour-initiating cells. However, little is known of the processes that regulate this plasticity. Our previous work has shown that activating mutations of Kras or the NF-κB pathway can drive dedifferentiation of intestinal cells lacking Apc. To investigate this process further, we profiled both cells undergoing dedifferentiation in vitro and tumours generated from these cells in vivo by gene expression analysis. Remarkably, no clear differences were observed in the tumours; however, during dedifferentiation in vitro we found a marked upregulation of TGFβ signalling, a pathway commonly mutated in colorectal cancer (CRC). Genetic inactivation of TGFβ type 1 receptor (Tgfbr1/Alk5) enhanced the ability of KrasG12D/+ mutation to drive dedifferentiation and markedly accelerated tumourigenesis. Mechanistically this is associated with a marked activation of MAPK signalling. Tumourigenesis from differentiated compartments is potently inhibited by MEK inhibition. Taken together, we show that tumours arising in differentiated compartments will be exposed to different suppressive signals, for example, TGFβ and blockade of these makes tumourigenesis more efficient from this compartment