Challenges to estimating vaccine impact using hospitalization data.

Because the real-world impact of new vaccines cannot be known before they are implemented in national programs, post-implementation studies at the population level are critical. Studies based on analysis of hospitalization rates of vaccine-preventable outcomes are typically used for this purpose. However, estimates of vaccine impact based on hospitalization data are particularly prone to confounding, as hospitalization rates are tightly linked to changes in the quality, access and use of the healthcare system, which often occur simultaneously with introduction of new vaccines. Here we illustrate how changes in healthcare delivery coincident with vaccine introduction can influence estimates of vaccine impact, using as an example reductions in infant pneumonia hospitalizations after introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in Brazil. To this end, we explore the effect of changes in several metrics of quality and access to public healthcare on trends in hospitalization rates before (2008-09) and after (2011-12) PCV10 introduction in 2010. Changes in infant pneumonia hospitalization rates following vaccine introduction were significantly associated with concomitant changes in hospital capacity and the fraction of the population using public hospitals. Importantly, reduction of pneumonia hospitalization rates after PCV10 were also associated with the expansion of outpatient services in several Brazilian states, falling more sharply where primary care coverage and the number of health units offering basic and emergency care increased more. We show that adjustments for unrelated (non-vaccine) trends commonly employed by impact studies, such as use of single control outcomes, are not always sufficient for accurate impact assessment. We discuss several ways to identify and overcome such biases, including sensitivity analyses using different denominators to calculate hospitalizations rates and methods that track changes in the outpatient setting. Employing these practices can improve the accuracy of vaccine impact estimates, particularly in evolving healthcare settings typical of low- and middle-income countries

Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines on Pneumonia Hospitalizations in High- and Low-Income Subpopulations in Brazil.

BackgroundPneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are being used worldwide. A key question is whether the impact of PCVs on pneumonia is similar in low- and high-income populations. However, most low-income countries, where the burden of disease is greatest, lack reliable data that can be used to evaluate the impact. Data from middle-income countries that have both low- and high-income subpopulations can provide a proxy measure for the impact of the vaccine in low-income countries.MethodsWe evaluated the impact of PCV10 on hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in Brazil, a middle-income country with localities that span a broad range of human development index (HDI) levels. We used complementary time series and spatiotemporal methods (synthetic controls and hierarchical Bayesian spatial regression) to test whether the decline in pneumonia hospitalizations associated with vaccine introduction varied across the socioeconomic spectrum.ResultsWe found that the declines in all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations in children and young and middle-aged adults did not vary substantially across low and high HDI subpopulations. Moreover, the estimated declines seen in infants and young adults were associated with higher levels of uptake of the vaccine at a local level.ConclusionsThese results suggest that PCVs have an important impact on hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in both low- and high-income populations

In for a penny, in for a pound: methylphenidate reduces the inhibitory effect of high stakes on persistent risky choice

Methylphenidate (MPH) is a stimulant that increases extracellular levels of dopamine and noradrenaline. It can diminish risky decision-making tendencies in certain clinical populations. MPH is also used, without license, by healthy adults, but the impact on their decision-making is not well established. Previous work has found that dopamine receptor activity of healthy adults can modulate the influence of stake magnitude on decisions to persistently gamble after incurring a loss. In this study, we tested for modulation of this effect by MPH in 40 healthy human adults. In a double-blind experiment, 20 subjects received 20 mg of MPH, while 20 matched controls received a placebo. All were provided with 30 rounds of opportunities to accept an incurred loss from their assets or opt for a "double-or-nothing" gamble that would either avoid or double it. Rounds began with a variable loss that would double with every failed gamble until it was accepted, recovered, or reached a specified maximum. Probability of recovery on any gamble was low and ambiguous. Subjects receiving placebo gambled less as the magnitude of the stake was raised and as the magnitude of accumulated loss escalated over the course of the task. In contrast, subjects treated with MPH gambled at a consistent rate, well above chance, across all stakes and trials. Trait reward responsiveness also reduced the impact of high stakes. The findings suggest that elevated catecholamine activity by MPH can disrupt inhibitory influences on persistent risky choice in healthy adults

Wnt3a nanodisks promote ex vivo expansion of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells

BACKGROUND: Wnt proteins modulate development, stem cell fate and cancer through interactions with cell surface receptors. Wnts are cysteine-rich, glycosylated, lipid modified, two domain proteins that are prone to aggregation. The culprit responsible for this behavior is a covalently bound palmitoleoyl moiety in the N-terminal domain. RESULTS: By combining murine Wnt3a with phospholipid and apolipoprotein A-I, ternary complexes termed nanodisks (ND) were generated. ND-associated Wnt3a is soluble in the absence of detergent micelles and gel filtration chromatography revealed that Wnt3a co-elutes with ND. In signaling assays, Wnt3a ND induced β-catenin stabilization in mouse fibroblasts as well as hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPC). Prolonged exposure of HSPC to Wnt3a ND stimulated proliferation and expansion of Lin(−) Sca-1(+) c-Kit(+) cells. Surprisingly, ND lacking Wnt3a contributed to Lin(−) Sca-1(+) c-Kit(+) cell expansion, an effect that was not mediated through β-catenin. CONCLUSIONS: The data indicate Wnt3a ND constitute a water-soluble transport vehicle capable of promoting ex vivo expansion of HSPC. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12951-016-0218-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users