Workforce predictive risk modelling: development of a model to identify general practices at risk of a supply−demand imbalance

Objective: This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model identifying general practices at risk of workforce supply–demand imbalance. Design: This is a secondary analysis of routine data on general practice workforce, patient experience and registered populations (2012 to 2016), combined with a census of general practitioners’ (GPs’) career intentions (2016). Setting/Participants: A hybrid approach was used to develop a model to predict workforce supply–demand imbalance based on practice factors using historical data (2012–2016) on all general practices in England (with over 1000 registered patients n=6398). The model was applied to current data (2016) to explore future risk for practices in South West England (n=368). Primary outcome measure: The primary outcome was a practice being in a state of workforce supply–demand imbalance operationally defined as being in the lowest third nationally of access scores according to the General Practice Patient Survey and the highest third nationally according to list size per full-time equivalent GP (weighted to the demographic distribution of registered patients and adjusted for deprivation). Results: Based on historical data, the predictive model had fair to good discriminatory ability to predict which practices faced supply–demand imbalance (area under receiver operating characteristic curve=0.755). Predictions using current data suggested that, on average, practices at highest risk of future supply–demand imbalance are currently characterised by having larger patient lists, employing more nurses, serving more deprived and younger populations, and having considerably worse patient experience ratings when compared with other practices. Incorporating findings from a survey of GP’s career intentions made little difference to predictions of future supply–demand risk status when compared with expected future workforce projections based only on routinely available data on GPs’ gender and age. Conclusions: It is possible to make reasonable predictions of an individual general practice’s future risk of undersupply of GP workforce with respect to its patient population. However, the predictions are inherently limited by the data available

Screening for Acute Childhood Malnutrition during the National Nutrition Week in Mali Increases Treatment Referrals

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a pilot intervention designed to integrate mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) screening for acute malnutrition into the semi-annual Child Nutrition Week (Semaine d'Intensification des Activités de Nutrition, or "SIAN") activities carried out in June 2008. DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Kolokani and Nara, two health districts in the Koulikoro region of Mali, 4-5 months after the SIAN, using a population-proportionate, multi-stage random sample of: 1) health centers, and 2) households in communities linked to each of the selected health centers. Caregivers of 1543 children who were 6-59 months of age at the time of the SIAN, 17 community-based volunteers and 45 health center staff members were interviewed. RESULTS: A total of 1278 children 6-59 months (83% of those studied) reportedly participated in SIAN. Of the participating children, 1258 received vitamin A (98% of SIAN participants; 82% of all eligible children), 945 received anti-helminth tablets (84% of participants; 71% of eligibles), and 669 were screened for acute malnutrition (52% of participants; 43% of eligibles). 186 of the children screened (27%) were reportedly identified as acutely malnourished. SIAN screening covered a significantly greater proportion of children than were examined in both community-based (22% of children) and health center-based screening activities (5% of children) combined during the 4-5 months after the SIAN (P<0.0001). In general, community volunteers and health personnel positively evaluated their experience adding MUAC screening to SIAN. CONCLUSION: Integrating MUAC screening for acute malnutrition in SIAN permits the assessment of a large number of children for acute malnutrition, and should be continued

Definitions for Loss of Domain: An International Delphi Consensus of Expert Surgeons

BACKGROUND: No standardized written or volumetric definition exists for 'loss of domain' (LOD). This limits the utility of LOD as a morphological descriptor and as a predictor of peri- and postoperative outcomes. Consequently, our aim was to establish definitions for LOD via consensus of expert abdominal wall surgeons. METHODS: A Delphi study involving 20 internationally recognized abdominal wall reconstruction (AWR) surgeons was performed. Four written and two volumetric definitions of LOD were identified via systematic review. Panelists completed a questionnaire that suggested these definitions as standardized definitions of LOD. Consensus on a preferred term was pre-defined as achieved when selected by ≥80% of panelists. Terms scoring <20% were removed. RESULTS: Voting commenced August 2018 and was completed in January 2019. Written definition: During Round 1, two definitions were removed and seven new definitions were suggested, leaving nine definitions for consideration. For Round 2, panelists were asked to select all appealing definitions. Thereafter, common concepts were identified during analysis, from which the facilitators advanced a new written definition. This received 100% agreement in Round 3. Volumetric definition: Initially, panelists were evenly split, but consensus for the Sabbagh method was achieved. Panelists could not reach consensus regarding a threshold LOD value that would preclude surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Consensus for written and volumetric definitions of LOD was achieved from 20 internationally recognized AWR surgeons. Adoption of these definitions will help standardize the use of LOD for both clinical and academic activities

Predisposing factors for bacterial vaginosis, treatment efficacy and pregnancy outcome among term deliveries; results from a preterm delivery study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Bacterial vaginosis (BV) during pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of preterm delivery but little is known about factors that could predict BV. We have analyzed if it is possible to identify a category of pregnant women that should be screened for BV, and if BV would alter the pregnancy outcome at term; we have also studied the treatment efficacy of clindamycin.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prospective BV screening and treatment study of 9025 women in a geographically defined region in southeast Sweden. BV was defined as a modified Nugent score of 6 and above. Data was collected from the Swedish Medical Birth Register. Women allocated to treatment were supplied with vaginal clindamycin cream. The main outcome goals were to identify factors that could predict BV.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Vaginal smears were consistent with BV criteria in 9.3%. Logistic regression indicates a significant correlation between smoking and BV (p < 0.001) and a greater prevalence of BV in the lower age groups (p < 0.001). We found no correlation between BV and history of preterm deliveries, previous miscarriages, extra-uterine pregnancies, infertility problems or reported history of urinary tract infections–factors that earlier have been associated with BV. Treatment with clindamycin cream showed a cure rate of 77%. Less than 1% of women with a normal vaginal smear in early pregnancy will develop BV during the pregnancy. There was no association between BV and the obstetric outcome among women who delivered at term. Women with BV, both treated patients and nontreated, had the same obstetric outcome at term as women with normal vaginal flora.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>BV is more than twice as common among smokers, and there is a higher prevalence in the younger age group. However these two markers for BV do not suffice as a tool for screening, and considering the lack of other risk factors associated with BV, screening of all pregnant women might be a strategy to follow in a program intended to reduce the number of preterm births.</p

The effects of beta-blockers on dobutamine-atropine stress echocardiography: early protocol versus standard protocol

BACKGROUND: To study the effects of Beta-blockers during Dobutamine Stress Echocardiography (DSE) comparing the hemodynamic benefits of an early administration of atropine in patients taking or not Beta-blockers. METHODS: One hundred and twenty-one patients were submitted to dobutamine stress echocardiography for the investigation of myocardial ischemia. The administration of atropine was randomized into two groups: A or B (early protocol when atropine was administered at 10 and 20 mcg/kg/min of dobutamine, respectively) and C (standard protocol with atropine at 40 mcg/kg/min of dobutamine). Analysis of the effects of Beta-blockers was done regarding the behavior pattern of heart rate and blood pressure, test time, number of conclusive and inconclusive (negative sub-maximum test) results, total doses of atropine and dobutamine, and general complications. RESULTS: Beta-blocked patients who received early atropine (Group A&B) had a significantly lower double product (p = 0.008), a higher mean test time (p = 0.010) and required a higher dose of atropine (p = 0.0005) when compared to the patients in this group who were not Beta-blocked. The same findings occurred in the standard protocol (Group C), however the early administration of atropine reduced test time both in the presence and absence of this therapy (p = 0.0001). The patients with Beta-blockers in Group A&B had a lower rate of inconclusive tests (26%) compared to those in Group C (40%). Complications were similar in both groups. CONCLUSION: The chronotropic response during dobutamine stress echocardiography was significantly reduced with the use of Beta-blockers. The early administration of atropine optimized the hemodynamic response, reduced test time in patients with or without Beta-blockers and reduced the number of inconclusive tests in the early protocol

Search for sterile neutrino mixing in the MINOS long-baseline experiment

A search for depletion of the combined flux of active neutrino species over a 735 km baseline is reported using neutral-current interaction data recorded by the MINOS detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. Such a depletion is not expected according to conventional interpretations of neutrino oscillation data involving the three known neutrino flavors. A depletion would be a signature of oscillations or decay to postulated noninteracting sterile neutrinos, scenarios not ruled out by existing data. From an exposure of 3.18×1020 protons on target in which neutrinos of energies between ~500¿¿MeV and 120 GeV are produced predominantly as ¿µ, the visible energy spectrum of candidate neutral-current reactions in the MINOS far detector is reconstructed. Comparison of this spectrum to that inferred from a similarly selected near-detector sample shows that of the portion of the ¿µ flux observed to disappear in charged-current interaction data, the fraction that could be converting to a sterile state is less than 52% at 90% confidence level (C.L.). The hypothesis that active neutrinos mix with a single sterile neutrino via oscillations is tested by fitting the data to various models. In the particular four-neutrino models considered, the mixing angles ¿24 and ¿34 are constrained to be less than 11° and 56° at 90% C.L., respectively. The possibility that active neutrinos may decay to sterile neutrinos is also investigated. Pure neutrino decay without oscillations is ruled out at 5.4 standard deviations. For the scenario in which active neutrinos decay into sterile states concurrently with neutrino oscillations, a lower limit is established for the neutrino decay lifetime t3/m3&gt;2.1×10-12¿¿s/eV at 90% C.L

First observations of separated atmospheric nu_mu and bar{nu-mu} events in the MINOS detector

The complete 5.4 kton MINOS far detector has been taking data since the beginning of August 2003 at a depth of 2070 meters water-equivalent in the Soudan mine, Minnesota. This paper presents the first MINOS observations of nuµ and [overline nu ]µ charged-current atmospheric neutrino interactions based on an exposure of 418 days. The ratio of upward- to downward-going events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation in the absence of neutrino oscillations, giving Rup/downdata/Rup/downMC=0.62-0.14+0.19(stat.)±0.02(sys.). An extended maximum likelihood analysis of the observed L/E distributions excludes the null hypothesis of no neutrino oscillations at the 98% confidence level. Using the curvature of the observed muons in the 1.3 T MINOS magnetic field nuµ and [overline nu ]µ interactions are separated. The ratio of [overline nu ]µ to nuµ events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation assuming neutrinos and antineutrinos oscillate in the same manner, giving R[overline nu ][sub mu]/nu[sub mu]data/R[overline nu ][sub mu]/nu[sub mu]MC=0.96-0.27+0.38(stat.)±0.15(sys.), where the errors are the statistical and systematic uncertainties. Although the statistics are limited, this is the first direct observation of atmospheric neutrino interactions separately for nuµ and [overline nu ]µ

Policies and strategies to retain and support the return of experienced GPs in direct patient care: the ReGROUP mixed-methods study

Background: UK general practice faces a workforce crisis, with general practitioner (GP) shortages, organisational change, substantial pressures across the whole health-care system and an ageing population with increasingly complex health needs. GPs require lengthy training, so retaining the existing workforce is urgent and important. Objectives: (1) To identify the key policies and strategies that might (i) facilitate the retention of experienced GPs in direct patient care or (ii) support the return of GPs following a career break. (2) To consider the feasibility of potentially implementing those policies and strategies. Design: This was a comprehensive, mixed-methods study. Setting: This study took place in primary care in England. Participants: General practitioners registered in south-west England were surveyed. Interviews were with purposively selected GPs and primary care stakeholders. A RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method (RAM) panel comprised GP partners and GPs working in national stakeholder organisations. Stakeholder consultations included representatives from regional and national groups. Main outcome measures: Systematic review – factors affecting GPs’ decisions to quit and to take career breaks. Survey – proportion of GPs likely to quit, to take career breaks or to reduce hours spent in patient care within 5 years of being surveyed. Interviews – themes relating to GPs’ decision-making. RAM – a set of policies and strategies to support retention, assessed as ‘appropriate’ and ‘feasible’. Predictive risk modelling – predictive model to identify practices in south-west England at risk of workforce undersupply within 5 years. Stakeholder consultation – comments and key actions regarding implementing emergent policies and strategies from the research. Results: Past research identified four job-related ‘push’ factors associated with leaving general practice: (1) workload, (2) job dissatisfaction, (3) work-related stress and (4) work–life balance. The survey, returned by 2248 out of 3370 GPs (67%) in the south-west of England, identified a high likelihood of quitting (37%), taking a career break (36%) or reducing hours (57%) within 5 years. Interviews highlighted three drivers of leaving general practice: (1) professional identity and value of the GP role, (2) fear and risk associated with service delivery and (3) career choices. The RAM panel deemed 24 out of 54 retention policies and strategies to be ‘appropriate’, with most also considered ‘feasible’, including identification of and targeted support for practices ‘at risk’ of workforce undersupply and the provision of formal career options for GPs wishing to undertake portfolio roles. Practices at highest risk of workforce undersupply within 5 years are those that have larger patient list sizes, employ more nurses, serve more deprived and younger populations, or have poor patient experience ratings. Actions for national organisations with an interest in workforce planning were identified. These included collection of data on the current scope of GPs’ portfolio roles, and the need for formal career pathways for key primary care professionals, such as practice managers. Limitations: The survey, qualitative research and modelling were conducted in one UK region. The research took place within a rapidly changing policy environment, providing a challenge in informing emergent policy and practice. Conclusions: This research identifies the basis for current concerns regarding UK GP workforce capacity, drawing on experiences in south-west England. Policies and strategies identified by expert stakeholders after considering these findings are likely to be of relevance in addressing GP retention in the UK. Collaborative, multidisciplinary research partnerships should investigate the effects of rolling out some of the policies and strategies described in this report. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016033876 and UKCRN ID number 20700. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme