16 research outputs found
A Roller Coaster Ride: An Empirical Investigation of the Main Drivers of Wheat Price
Over the last decade, commodity prices have registered substantial booms and busts marked by extreme volatility. Wheat in particular, one of the main non-oil commodities, has registered a roller-coaster in price levels which seems to be inconsistent with supply and demand fundamentals. To acutely investigate the drivers of wheat prices and quantify their impact, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been used. The exogenous variables have been distinguished into four groups: market-specific factors, broad macroeconomic determinants, speculative components, and weather variables. The quadriangulation of the determinants will enable us to better understand the movements in wheat price and identify the specific role of each component. The results show a mix of short and long term factors that are contributing to wheat price movements, and their effect should be taken into account in designing proper policy intervention to mitigate the negative impact of price shocks
Publisher Connection: Export-Led Growth in the UAE: Multivariate Causality Between Primary Exports, Manufactured Exports and Economic Growth
The principal question that this research addresses is the validity of the Export-Led Growth hypothesis (ELG) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the period 1981–2012, focusing on the causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth. Unit root tests are applied to examine the time-series properties of the variables, while the Johansen cointegration test is performed to confirm or not the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. Moreover, the multivariate Granger causality test and a modified version of Wald test are applied to examine the direction of the short-run and long-run causality respectively. The cointegration analysis reveals that manufactured exports contribute more to economic growth than primary exports in the long-run. In addition, this research provides evidence to support a bi-directional causality between manufactured exports and economic growth in the short-run, while the Growth-Led Exports (GLE) hypothesis is valid in the long-run for UAE
Price convergence across regions in India
Cross co-integration, Cross-sectional dependence, Panel unit root tests, Common factor, Price convergence, C23, E31,
Multiple unit root tests under uncertainty over the initial condition: some powerful modifications
Inflation and Welfare in Latin America
Integration, Cointegration, Long-run derivative, Interest elasticity, E31, E41,
The fragility of the KPSS stationarity test
KPSS stationarity test, Size distortion, Nearly-white noise nearly integrated model,