Multiple causes of interannual sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean

The eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean is subject to interannual fluctuations of sea surface temperatures, with climatic impacts on the surrounding continents. The dynamic mechanism underlying Atlantic temperature variability is thought to be similar to that of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific, where air-sea coupling leads to a positive feedback between surface winds in the western basin, sea surface temperature in the eastern basin, and equatorial oceanic heat content. Here we use a suite of observational data, climate reanalysis products, and general circulation model simulations to reassess the factors driving the interannual variability. We show that some of the warm events can not be explained by previously identified equatorial wind stress forcing and ENSO-like dynamics. Instead, these events are driven by a mechanism in which surface wind forcing just north of the equator induces warm ocean temperature anomalies that are subsequently advected toward the equator. We find the surface wind patterns are associated with long-lived subtropical sea surface temperature anomalies and suggest they therefore reflect a link between equatorial and subtropical Atlantic variability

Experimental forecasts of El Niño

Experimental forecasts of El Niño events occurring since 1970, made with a deterministic model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, indicate that El Niño is generally predictable one or two years ahead. A forecast for 1986 is also presented

Pacific island regional preparedness for El Niño

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is often blamed for disasters in Pacific island communities. From a disaster risk reduction (DRR) perspective, the challenges with the El Niño part of the ENSO cycle, in particular, are more related to inadequate vulnerability reduction within development than to ENSO-induced hazard influences. This paper analyses this situation, filling in a conceptual and geographic gap in El Niño-related research, by reviewing El Niño-related preparedness (the conceptual gap) for Pacific islands (the geographic gap). Through exploring El Niño impacts on Pacific island communities alongside their vulnerabilities, resiliences, and preparedness with respect to El Niño, El Niño is seen as a constructed discourse rather than as a damaging phenomenon, leading to suggestions for El Niño preparedness as DRR as part of development. Yet the attention which El Niño garners might bring resources to the Pacific region and its development needs, albeit in the short term while El Niño lasts. Conversely, the attention given to El Niño could shift blame from underlying causes of vulnerability to a hazard-centric viewpoint. Instead of focusing on one hazard-influencing phenomenon, opportunities should be created for the Pacific region to tackle wider DRR and development concerns