The utility of serology for elimination surveillance of trachoma

Robust surveillance methods are needed for trachoma control and recrudescence monitoring, but existing methods have limitations. Here, we analyse data from nine trachoma-endemic populations and provide operational thresholds for interpretation of serological data in low-transmission and post-elimination settings. Analyses with sero-catalytic and antibody acquisition models provide insights into transmission history within each population. To accurately estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR) for trachoma in populations with high-seroprevalence in adults, the model accounts for secondary exposure to Chlamydia trachomatis due to urogenital infection. We estimate the population half-life of sero-reversion for anti-Pgp3 antibodies to be 26 (95% credible interval (CrI): 21–34) years. We show SCRs below 0.015 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0–0.049) per year correspond to a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular below 5%, the current threshold for elimination of active trachoma as a public health problem. As global trachoma prevalence declines, we may need cross-sectional serological survey data to inform programmatic decisions

Fluxbranes: Moduli Stabilisation and Inflation

Fluxbrane inflation is a stringy version of D-term inflation in which two fluxed D7-branes move towards each other until their (relative) gauge flux annihilates. Compared to brane-antibrane inflation, the leading-order inflationary potential of this scenario is much flatter. In the present paper we first discuss a new explicit moduli stabilisation procedure combining the F- and D-term scalar potentials: It is based on fluxed D7-branes in a geometry with three large four-cycles of hierarchically different volumes. Subsequently, we combine this moduli stabilisation with the fluxbrane inflation idea, demonstrating in particular that CMB data (including cosmic string constraints) can be explained within our setup of hierarchical large volume CY compactifications. We also indicate how the eta-problem is expected to re-emerge through higher-order corrections and how it might be overcome by further refinements of our model. Finally, we explain why recently raised concerns about constant FI terms do not affect the consistent, string-derived variant of D-term inflation discussed in this paper.Comment: In section 3 an improved model is discusse