Dental age diagnostics by means of radiographical evaluation of the growth stages of lower wisdom teeth

The main criterion for dental age estimation in living adolescents and young adults is mineralization of third molars. A total of 1,260 orthopantomograms of 669 female and 591 male subjects aged between 15 and 22years was examined. Of the orthopantomograms, 1,137 were from patients with Swiss citizenship and 123 were from other European countries. The mineralization status of lower third molars was evaluated based on Demirjian's classification of stages. For the statistical assessment of data, logistic regression and mean value testing were used. The findings show that completed growth in wisdom teeth is observable at ages less than 18. Male individuals were approximately 1year ahead of females at stage H, and South East Europeans were approximately 6months ahead of Swiss (Central Europe) at stage H. Mean values led to false conclusions regarding the question of the attained age of 18. Therefore, regression analysis should be used for the statistical assessment of data in dental age diagnostic

Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk

We empirically investigate the relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap (CDS) spreads. An increase in a country’s CDS spread is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its exchange rate as well as an increase of its currency volatility and crash risk. The link between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by exposure to global sovereign risk shocks and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. Sovereign risk forecasts excess returns to trading exchange rates, volatility and skewness, and is strongly priced in the cross-section of currencies. Moreover, we find that sovereign risk accounts for a large share of carry trade returns, and that carry and momentum strategies generate high (low) returns across countries with high (low) sovereign risk

Exchange rates and sovereign risk

An increase in a country's sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default expectations (rather than distress risk premia) and exposure to global sovereign risk shocks, and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. We show that a sovereign risk factor is priced in the cross-section of currency returns and that it is not subsumed by the carry factor.Christian Wagner acknowledges support from the Center for Financial Frictions (FRIC), grant no. DNRF10

Recurrence in generic staircases

The straight-line flow on almost every staircase and on almost every square tiled staircase is recurrent. For almost every square tiled staircase the set of periodic orbits is dense in the phase space

Anisotropy and XKS-splitting from geodynamic models of double subduction: Testing the limits of interpretation

In this study, we develop three-dimensional geodynamic models to predict XKS-splitting for double subduction scenarios characterized by two outward dipping slabs. These models are highly relevant in various realistic settings, such as the central Mediterranean. We focus on the analysis of XKS-splitting, a key geophysical observable used to infer seismic anisotropy and mantle flow patterns predicted from these geodynamic models. Our geodynamic models simulate the concurrent subduction of two identical oceanic plates which are separated by a continental plate. The variation of the separating plate strength, cause a transition from a retreating to a stationary trench. The models provide detailed insights into the temporal evolution of mantle flow patterns, especially the amount of trench parallel flow, induced by these double subduction scenarios. In a second step, we use the well-known D-Rex model (Kaminski et al., 2004) to efficiently estimate the CPO development in response to plastic deformation produced by mantle flow. Based on the results of the D-Rex model, which includes the full elastic tensor of a deformed multiphase polycrystalline mantle aggregate within the three-dimensional model, we obtain synthetic apparent splitting parameters at receivers placed at the surface by applying multiple-layer anisotropic waveform modeling. Employing analytical techniques, we show the ambiguous nature of apparent splitting parameters, as already suggested by previous studies based on numerical modeling. In the light of the results, we postulate that a meaningful inversion, based on the commonly applied 2-layer anisotropic model, requires additional constraints on fast-axis orientation or strength of anisotropy (delay time). Finally, we show that constraints from our texture simulations (i.e., the integrated delay time) can be used to achieve unique 2-layer models that perfectly fit the synthetic observables. Such models could serve as reference for the interpretation of the observations. Our study highlights the necessity of combining geodynamic modeling and XKS-splitting analysis to shed light on complex upper mantle flow patterns such as those that might occur around subduction zones