Reducing the Probability of False Positive Research Findings by Pre-Publication Validation - Experience with a Large Multiple Sclerosis Database

*Objective*
We have assessed the utility of a pre-publication validation policy in reducing the probability of publishing false positive research findings. 
*Study design and setting*
The large database of the Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research was split in two parts: one for hypothesis generation and a validation part for confirmation of selected results. We present case studies from 5 finalized projects that have used the validation policy and results from a simulation study.
*Results*
In one project, the "relapse and disability" project as described in section II (example 3), findings could not be confirmed in the validation part of the database. The simulation study showed that the percentage of false positive findings can exceed 20% depending on variable selection. 
*Conclusion*
We conclude that the validation policy has prevented the publication of at least one research finding that could not be validated in an independent data set (and probably would have been a "true" false-positive finding) over the past three years, and has led to improved data analysis, statistical programming, and selection of hypotheses. The advantages outweigh the lost statistical power inherent in the process

THE DISTRIBUTION OF TETRACYCLINES IN TISSUES OF DOGS AFTER REPEATED ORAL ADMINISTRATION

ABSTRACT SCHACH VON WITTENATJ

Echocardiographic Evaluation of LV Function in Patients with Tachyarrhythmia and Reduced Left Ventricular Function in Response to Rhythm Restoration

Aims: Tachyarrhythmia due to atrial fibrillation (AF) is often associated with reduced left ventricular (LV) function and has been proposed to cause arrhythmia-induced cardiomyopathy (AIC). However, the precise diagnostics of AIC and reversibility after rhythm restoration are poorly understood. Our aim was to investigate systolic LV function in tachycardic AF and to evaluate the direct effect of rhythm restoration. Methods: We prospectively studied 24 patients (71% male, age 65 ± 9 years) with tachycardic AF and newly diagnosed reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Just before and immediately after electrical cardioversion (ECV), transthoracic echocardiography was performed. Geometric as well as functional data were assessed. Results: Patients presented with a heart rate (HR) of 117.4 ± 21.6/min and a 2D-/3D-LVEF of 32 ± 9/31 ± 8%. ECV to sinus rhythm normalized HR to 77 ± 11/min with an increase of 2D-/3D-LVEF to 37 ± 9/37 ± 10% (p < 0.01 vs. baseline, each). Left ventricular geometry changed with an increase of end-diastolic volume (LVEDV) while end-systolic volume (LVESV) remained unchanged. Parameters concerning myocardial deformation (global longitudinal strain (GLS), strain rate (SR)) decreased whereas the RR interval-corrected GLS (GLSc) remained unchanged. In a simple linear regression model, GLS correlated with 2D- and 3D-LVEF not only before (pre) ECV, but also after (post) ECV. We demonstrate that the increase of LVEF and GLS (ratios pre/post) correlates with the change of HR (ΔHR; R2 = 0.20, 0.33 and 0.32, p < 0.05 each), whereas ratios of GLSc and SR do not significantly correlate with HR (R2 = 0.03 and 0.01, p = n.s. each). Conclusion: In patients with tachyarrhythmia and reduced ejection fraction, ECV leads to immediate improvement in EF and GLS while HR-corrected LV contractility remains unchanged. This suggests that the immediate effects of rhythm restoration are mostly related to changes in left ventricular volume, but not to an acute improvement of heart-rate independent contractility

Glucocorticoid stimulation increases cardiac contractility by SGK1-dependent SOCE-activation in rat cardiac myocytes

Aims Glucocorticoid (GC) stimulation has been shown to increase cardiac contractility by elevated intracellular [Ca] but the sources for Ca entry are unclear. This study aims to determine the role of store-operated Ca entry (SOCE) for GC-mediated inotropy. Methods and results Dexamethasone (Dex) pretreatment significantly increased cardiac contractile force ex vivo in Langendorff-perfused Sprague-Dawley rat hearts (2 mg/kg BW i.p. Dex 24 h prior to experiment). Moreover, Ca transient amplitude as well as fractional shortening were significantly enhanced in Fura-2-loaded isolated rat ventricular myocytes exposed to Dex (1 mg/mL Dex, 24 h). Interestingly, these Dex-dependent effects could be abolished in the presence of SOCE-inhibitors SKF-96356 (SKF, 2 μM) and BTP2 (5 μM). Ca transient kinetics (time to peak, decay time) were not affected by SOCE stimulation. Direct SOCE measurements revealed a negligible magnitude in untreated myocytes but a dramatic increase in SOCE upon Dex-pretreatment. Importantly, the Dex-dependent stimulation of SOCE could be blocked by inhibition of serum and glucocorticoid-regulated kinase 1 (SGK1) using EMD638683 (EMD, 50 μM). Dex preincubation also resulted in increased mRNA expression of proteins involved in SOCE (stromal interaction molecule 2, STIM2, and transient receptor potential cation channels 3/6, TRPC 3/6), which were also prevented in the presence of EMD. Conclusion Short-term GC-stimulation with Dex improves cardiac contractility by a SOCE-dependent mechanism, which appears to involve increased SGK1-dependent expression of the SOCE-related proteins. Since Ca transient kinetics were unaffected, SOCE appears to influence Ca cycling more by an integrated response across multiple cardiac cycles but not on a beat-to-beat basis

Reducing the probability of false positive research findings by pre-publication validation – Experience with a large multiple sclerosis database

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Published false positive research findings are a major problem in the process of scientific discovery. There is a high rate of lack of replication of results in clinical research in general, multiple sclerosis research being no exception. Our aim was to develop and implement a policy that reduces the probability of publishing false positive research findings.</p> <p>We have assessed the utility to work with a pre-publication validation policy after several years of research in the context of a large multiple sclerosis database.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The large database of the Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research was split in two parts: one for hypothesis generation and a validation part for confirmation of selected results. We present case studies from 5 finalized projects that have used the validation policy and results from a simulation study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In one project, the "relapse and disability" project as described in section II (example 3), findings could not be confirmed in the validation part of the database. The simulation study showed that the percentage of false positive findings can exceed 20% depending on variable selection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conclude that the validation policy has prevented the publication of at least one research finding that could not be validated in an independent data set (and probably would have been a "true" false-positive finding) over the past three years, and has led to improved data analysis, statistical programming, and selection of hypotheses. The advantages outweigh the lost statistical power inherent in the process.</p

Reduction of radiation exposure during transcatheter edge‐to‐edge mitral valve repair

Background Transcatheter mitral valve repair is an increasingly used therapy for mitral regurgitation which requires fluoroscopic guidance. Limiting radiation exposure during lengthy procedures is important for both patient and operator safety. This study aimed to investigate radiation dose during contemporary use of MitraClip implantation and the effects of a dose reduction program. Methods A total of 115 patients who underwent MitraClip implantation were prospectively enrolled in a single-center observational study. During the inclusion period, our institution adopted a radiation dose reduction program, comprising lowering of fluoroscopy pulse rate and image target dose. The first 58 patients were treated with conventional fluoroscopy settings, while the following 57 patients underwent the procedure with the newly implemented low dose protocol. Results Radiation dose area product significantly decreased after introduction of the low dose protocol (693 [366–1231] vs. 2265 [1517–3914] cGy·cm2, p < 0.001). After correcting for fluoroscopy time, gender and body mass index, the low dose protocol emerged as a strong negative predictor of radiation dose (p < 0.001), reducing dose area product by 64% (95% confidence interval [57–70]). Device time, device success, and procedural safety did not differ between the normal dose and low dose group. Furthermore, the low dose protocol was not associated with an increased incidence of a combined endpoint consisting of death, repeat intervention, or heart surgery during 12 months follow-up. Conclusion Reduction of radiation exposure during transcatheter mitral valve repair by 64% is feasible without affecting procedural success or safety

Complement Regulator FHR-3 Is Elevated either Locally or Systemically in a Selection of Autoimmune Diseases

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a very common complication after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) and is associated with a poor prognosis. Generally, the kidneys are assumed to not be no direct targets of graft-versus-host disease (GvHD), and renal impairment is often attributed to several other factors occurring in the early phase after BMT. Our study aimed to prove the existence of renal GvHD in a fully major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-mismatched model of BALB/c mice conditioned and transplanted according to 2 different intensity protocols. Syngeneically transplanted and untreated animals served as controls. Four weeks after transplantation, allogeneic animals developed acute GvHD that was more pronounced in the high-intensity protocol (HIP) group than in the low-intensity protocol (LIP) group. Urea and creatinine as classic serum markers of renal function could not verify renal impairment 4 weeks after BMT. Creatinine levels were even reduced as a result of catabolic metabolism and loss of muscle mass due to acute GvHD. Proteinuria, albuminuria, and urinary N-acetyl-beta-D-glucosaminidase (NAG) levels were measured as additional renal markers before and after transplantation. Albuminuria and NAG were only significantly increased after allogeneic transplantation, correlating with disease severity between HIP and LIP animals. Histological investigations of the kidneys showed renal infiltration of T cells and macrophages with endarteriitis, interstitial nephritis, tubulitis, and glomerulitis. T cells consisted of CD4+, CD8+, and FoxP3+ cells. Renal expression analysis of allogeneic animals showed increases in indoleamine-2,3 dioxygenase (IDO), different cytokines (tumor necrosis factor alpha, interferon-gamma, interleukin 1 alpha [IL-1 alpha], IL-2, IL-6, and IL-10), and adhesion molecules (intercellular adhesion molecule 1 and vascular cell adhesion molecule 1), resembling findings from other tissues in acute GvHD. In summary, our study supports the entity of renal GvHD with histological features suggestive of cellmediated renal injury. Albuminuria and urinary NAG levels may serve as early markers of renal impairment

Prognosis of the individual course of disease - steps in developing a decision support tool for Multiple Sclerosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Multiple sclerosis is a chronic disease of uncertain aetiology. Variations in its disease course make it difficult to impossible to accurately determine the prognosis of individual patients. The Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research (SLCMSR) developed an "online analytical processing (OLAP)" tool that takes advantage of extant clinical trials data and allows one to model the near term future course of this chronic disease for an individual patient.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For a given patient the most similar patients of the SLCMSR database are intelligently selected by a model-based matching algorithm integrated into an OLAP-tool to enable real time, web-based statistical analyses. The underlying database (last update April 2005) contains 1,059 patients derived from 30 placebo arms of controlled clinical trials. Demographic information on the entire database and the portion selected for comparison are displayed. The result of the statistical comparison is provided as a display of the course of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) for individuals in the database with regions of probable progression over time, along with their mean relapse rate. Kaplan-Meier curves for time to sustained progression in the EDSS and time to requirement of constant assistance to walk (EDSS 6) are also displayed. The software-application OLAP anticipates the input MS patient's course on the basis of baseline values and the known course of disease for similar patients who have been followed in clinical trials.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This simulation could be useful for physicians, researchers and other professionals who counsel patients on therapeutic options. The application can be modified for studying the natural history of other chronic diseases, if and when similar datasets on which the OLAP operates exist.</p

Source description and sampling techniques in PEREGRINE Monte Carlo calculations of dose distributions for radiation oncology

We outline the techniques used within PEREGRINE, a 3D Monte Carlo code calculation system, to model the photon output from medical accelerators. We discuss the methods used to reduce the phase-space data to a form that is accurately and efficiently sampled

Infective Endocarditis: Predictive Factors for Diagnosis and Mortality in Surgically Treated Patients

Background: Diagnosis of infective endocarditis (IE) often is challenging, and mortality is high in such patients. Our goal was to characterize common diagnostic tools to enable a rapid and accurate diagnosis and to correlate these tools with mortality outcomes. Methods: Because of the possibility of including perioperative diagnostics, only surgically treated patients with suspected left-sided IE were included in this retrospective, monocentric study. A clinical committee confirmed the diagnosis of IE. Results: 201 consecutive patients (age 64 ± 13 years, 74% male) were finally diagnosed with IE, and 14 patients turned out IE-negative. Preoperative tests with the highest sensitivity for IE were positive blood cultures (89.0%) and transesophageal echocardiography (87.5%). In receiver operating characteristics, vegetation size revealed high predictive power for IE (AUC 0.800, p < 0.001) with an optimal cut-off value of 11.5 mm. Systemic embolism was associated with mortality, and N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) had predictive power for mortality. Conclusion: If diagnostic standard tools remain inconclusive, we suggest employing novel cut-off values to increase diagnostic accuracy and accelerate diagnosis. Patients with embolism or elevated NT-proBNP deserve a closer follow-up