The Analysis of Parameter Error Propagation in Simple Fishery Models

Methodology to analyze the propagation of errors in fishery model parameters is described and demonstrated through its application to stock size estimates obtained using Pope's cohort analysis. The method requires that independent standard errors for model parameters be available, and it is based upon a formal analysis of how uncertainties propagate through model calculations. In certain cases the methodology described can be used instead of a numerical-sensitivity analysis to investigate the model responses to error or uncertainty in its parameters. The ability to assess the relative merits of increased precision in various parameter estimates is considered especially useful.Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,