Modeling undetected live poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: Implications for surveillance and vaccination

Background Most poliovirus infections occur with no symptoms and this leads to the possibility of silent circulation, which complicates the confirmation of global goals to permanently end poliovirus transmission. Previous simple models based on hypothetical populations assumed perfect detection of symptomatic cases and suggested the need to observe no paralytic cases from wild polioviruses (WPVs) for approximately 3-4 years to achieve 95% confidence about eradication, but the complexities in real populations and the imperfect nature of surveillance require consideration. Methods We revisit the probability of undetected poliovirus circulation using a more comprehensive model that reflects the conditions in a number of places with different characteristics related to WPV transmission, and we model the actual environmental WPV detection that occurred in Israel in 2013. We consider the analogous potential for undetected transmission of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses. The model explicitly accounts for the impact of different vaccination activities before and after the last detected case of paralytic polio, different levels of surveillance, variability in transmissibility and neurovirulence among serotypes, and the possibility of asymptomatic participation in transmission by previously-vaccinated or infected individuals. Results We find that prolonged circulation in the absence of cases and thus undetectable by case-based surveillance may occur if vaccination keeps population immunity close to but not over the threshold required for the interruption of transmission, as may occur in northwestern Nigeria for serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus in the event of insufficient tOPV use. Participation of IPV-vaccinated individuals in asymptomatic fecal-oral transmission may also contribute to extended transmission undetectable by case-based surveillance, as occurred in Israel. We also find that gaps or quality issues in surveillance could significantly reduce confidence about actual disruption. Maintaining high population immunity and high-quality surveillance for several years after the last detected polio cases will remain critical elements of the polio end game. Conclusions Countries will need to maintain vigilance in their surveillance for polioviruses and recognize that their risks of undetected circulation may differ as a function of their efforts to manage population immunity and to identify cases or circulating live polioviruses.Delft Institute of Applied MathematicsElectrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Scienc

The potential impact of expanding target age groups for polio immunization campaigns

Background Global efforts to eradicate wild polioviruses (WPVs) continue to face challenges due to uninterrupted endemic WPV transmission in three countries and importation-related outbreaks into previously polio-free countries. We explore the potential role of including older children and adults in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) to more rapidly increase population immunity and prevent or stop transmission. Methods We use a differential equation-based dynamic poliovirus transmission model to analyze the epidemiological impact and vaccine resource implications of expanding target age groups in SIAs. We explore the use of older age groups in SIAs for three situations: alternative responses to the 2010 outbreak in Tajikistan, retrospective examination of elimination in two high-risk states in northern India, and prospective and retrospective strategies to accelerate elimination in endemic northwestern Nigeria. Our model recognizes the ability of individuals with waned mucosal immunity (i.e., immunity from a historical live poliovirus infection) to become re-infected and contribute to transmission to a limited extent. Results SIAs involving expanded age groups reduce overall caseloads, decrease transmission, and generally lead to a small reduction in the time to achieve WPV elimination. Analysis of preventive expanded age group SIAs in Tajikistan or prior to type-specific surges in incidence in high-risk areas of India and Nigeria showed the greatest potential benefits of expanded age groups. Analysis of expanded age group SIAs in outbreak situations or to accelerate the interruption of endemic transmission showed relatively less benefit, largely due to the circulation of WPV reaching individuals sooner or more effectively than the SIAs. The India and Nigeria results depend strongly on how well SIAs involving expanded age groups reach relatively isolated subpopulations that sustain clusters of susceptible children, which we assume play a key role in persistent endemic WPV transmission in these areas. Conclusions This study suggests the need to carefully consider the epidemiological situation in the context of decisions to use expanded age group SIAs. Subpopulations of susceptible individuals may independently sustain transmission, which will reduce the overall benefits associated with using expanded age group SIAs to increase population immunity to a sufficiently high level to stop transmission and reduce the incidence of paralytic casesDelft Institute of Applied MathematicsElectrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Scienc

Capture-recapture methods to size alcohol related problems in a population

STUDY OBJECTIVE—To investigate the utility of capture-recapture methods to estimate prevalence of subjects with alcohol related disorders using multiple incomplete lists.
DESIGN—This was a cross sectional study of alcohol related disorders in a large community.
SETTING—During 1997 identified cases with known alcohol related disorders were independently flagged by four sources (self help volunteering groups; psychiatric ambulatory; public alcohology service; hospital discharges).
PATIENTS—381 records were flagged, corresponding to 349 individual cases from a target population resident in a northern Italy area.
MAIN RESULTS—The two sample capture-recapture estimates were clearly biased because of dependencies among sources. Estimates based on log-linear models showed prevalent counts ranged from 2297 (95% confidence intervals: 1524, 3794) to 2523 (95% confidence intervals: 1623,( )4627) after adjustment for dependence among sources only or also for heterogeneity in catchability among age categories (< 50 and ⩾ 50 years), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS—The study suggests that capture-recapture is an appropriate approach for estimating prevalence of subjects with alcohol related problems who seek or need treatment and assistance when different lists of alcoholics can be obtained from different types of agencies involved with problematic use of alcohol. Critical factors are the complexity in case definition and the analysis of heterogeneity among people. Accurate estimates are needed to plan and evaluate public health interventions.


Keywords: alcohol related problems; capture-recapture; log-linear model