The impact of weather variability and climate change on pesticide applications in the US - An empirical investigation

Weather variability and climate change affect the application of pesticides in agriculture, in turn impacting the environment. Using panel data regression for the US, we find that weather and climate differences significantly influence the application rates of most pesticides. Subsequently, the regression results are linked to downscaled climate change scenario the Canadian and Hadley climate change models. We find that the application of most pesticides increase under both scenarios. The projection results vary by crop, region, and pesticide.Climate change, weather variability, pesticide, regression, panel data, North America, US

Economic impacts of changes in fish population dynamics: the role of the fishermen’s harvesting strategies

Using a bioeconomic model of the cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen’s behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic development of the fisheries employing a profit-maximizing harvesting strategy over a given number of fishing periods. The scenarios assessed cover a time period of 100 years with sudden changes of the productivity of both species occurring at the midpoint of each simulation. Stock sizes and landings of fish are determined for each fishing period, and the net present values of profits over periods of interest prior to and following the change in population dynamics are calculated. Results show that if the profit-maximizing harvesting strategy is based on a short optimization period, the fleets with the higher efficiency are generally favored. If the strategy is based on an optimization over two or more fishing periods, fishing activities may be deferred to allow for stock regrowth. In such cases, smaller and less cost-intensive vessels are preferred. A reduction of either the productivity or the carrying capacities of the two species has little impact on the fisheries if the change is fairly small. A substantial reduction of either quantity has a lasting negative economic impact which mainly manifests itself in a severely reduced profitability of mainly the cod fishery.bioeconomic modeling, Barents Sea, cod, capelin, population dynamics, harvesting strategy

Rebuilding the Eastern Baltic cod stock under environmental change - a preliminary approach using stock, environmental, and management constraints

The population dynamics of the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.), unlike many other stocks, shows a strong dependency on environmental conditions. To test the implications of different management policies on the stock and the fishery in a system of global environmental change, we apply a spatially disaggregated, discrete time, age-structured model of the Eastern Baltic cod stock in 50 year simulation analyses. The simulation provides an analysis of stock, yield, and revenue development under various management policies and environmental scenarios. The policy analysis, focusing on different regulations of fishing mortality, is embedded into three environmental scenarios, assuming low, medium, or high climate and environmental change. The environmental assumptions are based on simulation results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, which project salinity in the Baltic Sea to decrease by 7-47% in the period 2071-2100 relative to the reference period 1961-1990. Our simulation results show that a significant reduction in fishing mortality is necessary for achieving high long-term economic yields. Moreover, under the presented environmental scenarios, a stock collapse cannot be prevented. It can, however, be postponed by the establishment of a marine reserve in ICES subdivision 25.Baltic cod, climate change, environmental variability, reproductive volume, population dynamics, management, policy, age-structured model, temporal marine reserve

Rebuilding the Eastern Baltic cod stock under environmental change - Part II: The economic viability of a marine protected area

This study adds a cost analysis of the Eastern Baltic cod fishery to the existing model presented in Röckmann et al. (forthcoming). As cost data on this international fishery do not exist, available data from Denmark are extrapolated to the whole international fishery. Additionally, unit and total variable costs are simulated and the sensitivity to a set of different cost-stock and cost-output elasticities is tested. The study supports preliminary conclusions that a temporary marine reserve policy, which focuses on protecting the Eastern Baltic cod spawning stock in ICES subdivision 25, is a valuable fisheries management tool to (a) rebuild the overexploited Eastern Baltic cod stock and (b) increase operating profits. The negative effects of climate change can be postponed for at least 20 years – depending on the assumed rate of future climate change. Including costs in the economic analysis does not change the ranking of management policies as proposed in the previous study where costs were neglected.Development, Baltic cod, cost-stock elasticity, cost-output elasticity, sensitivity analysis, climate change scenario, management, policy, temporal marine reserve

Testing the implications of a permanent or seasonal marine reserve on the population dynamics of Eastern Baltic cod under varying environmental conditions

In order to test the implications of the establishment of a marine reserve in the Baltic Sea, a spatially disaggregated, discrete time, age-structured model for the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.) stock was constructed. Functional relationships for recruitment and predation mortality were developed by multiple regression analyses. The resultant model output compares well with observed data from the fishery. The model was then applied to simulate stock development over a 50 year time period using different management policies and a variety of environmental conditions. The investigated management policies reduce fishing mortality and range from a moratorium on the Eastern Baltic cod fishery via the establishment of a permanent or a seasonal marine reserve in ICES subdivision 25 to a fishing as usual scenario. The environmental conditions incorporated were based on the size of the reproductive volume (RV) and comprise a best case and a worst case of reproductive conditions, and two more realistic scenarios, where we assumed that a historic series of RV-sizes reoccurs over the simulation period. Our results show a strong dependence of stock dynamics on the environmental conditions. Under prevailing low RV, our model projects stock extinction by the year 2020, if fishing continues as usual. Under the restrictive scenarios, where fishing mortality is reduced either directly or by implementation of a marine reserve, the stock benefits from an increase in stock size and an improved age-structure. A seasonal closure of SD 25 as opposed to a closure of the entire Baltic Sea appears to be sufficient to prevent the Eastern Baltic cod stock from falling below safe biological limits.Baltic cod, management, age-structured model, population dynamics, MPA, environmental variability, reproductive volume

A suspected lipofuscin storage disease of sheep associated with ingestion of the plant, Trachyandra divaricata (Jacq.) Kunth

Paresis afflicted 85 out of a flock of 770 young Merino ewes kept on old wheat lands in the western Cape during a period of drought. Many of the paretic ewes died. The vegetation was sparse and was dominated by Trachyandra divaricata. At necropsy, yellowish-brown discoloration of the grey matter throughout the brain and spinal cord and mild brown discoloration of the liver, renal cortex and lymph nodes were consistently seen. Light microscopical examination revealed abundant, yellowish-brown pigment granules in the cytoplasm of most of the larger neurons. Similar pigment also occurred in some non-nervous tissues. Shrinkage and loss of a few randomly scattered axons were observed in the white matter of the spinal cord in 2 sheep. Histochemical and ultrastructural features of the pigment were consistent with those of lipofuscin. T. divaricata failed to reproduce the condition when dosed to a sheep, but the paresis and pigmentation shown to be caused by the closely related plant, T. laxa, are strikingly similar. Trachyandra poisoning appears to be the first documented example in farm animals of an acquired lipofuscin storage disease involving nervous and non-nervous tissues for which a specific plant has been causally implicated.The articles have been scanned in colour with a HP Scanjet 5590; 600dpi. Adobe Acrobat XI Pro was used to OCR the text and also for the merging and conversion to the final presentation PDF-format

Expectations from a Microlensing Search for Planets

The statistical distribution of the masses of planets about stars between the Sun and the center of the galaxy is constrained to within a factor of three by an intensive search for planets during microlensing events. Projected separations in terms of the lens Einstein ring radius yield a rough estimate of the distribution of planetary semimajor axes with planetary mass. The search consists of following ongoing stellar microlensing events involving sources in the center of the galaxy lensed by intervening stars with high time resolution, 1% photometry in two colors in an attempt to catch any short time scale planetary perturbations of the otherwise smooth light curve. It is assumed that 3000 events are followed over an 8 year period, but with half of the lenses, those that are members of binary systems, devoid of planets. The remaining 1500 lenses have solar-system-like distributions of 4 or 5 planets. The expectations from the microlensing search are extremely assumption dependent with 56, 138, and 81 planets being detected for three sets of assumptions involving how the planetary masses and separations vary with lens mass. The events can be covered from 54% to 62% of the time on average by high time resolution photometry from a system of three or four dedicated two meter telescopes distributed in longitude, so 38% to 46% of the detectable small mass planets (very short perturbations of the light curve) will be missed. But perturbations comparable to a day in length means all of the detectable Jupiters and Saturns will in fact be detected as well as a large fraction of the Uranuses. Although meaningful statistics on planetary masses and separations can be inferred from such an intensive search, they, like the inferred data set, will be dependent on the assumed nature of the systems.Comment: 26 pages, LaTeX, uses aas2pp4.sty, 11 postscript figures, Submitted to Icaru

A variational approach to the macroscopic electrodynamics of anisotropic hard superconductors

We consider the Bean's critical state model for anisotropic superconductors. A variational problem solved by the quasi--static evolution of the internal magnetic field is obtained as the $\Gamma$-limit of functionals arising from the Maxwell's equations combined with a power law for the dissipation. Moreover, the quasi--static approximation of the internal electric field is recovered, using a first order necessary condition. If the sample is a long cylinder subjected to an axial uniform external field, the macroscopic electrodynamics is explicitly determined.Comment: 24 pages, 15 figure

Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds

Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west—where green-up typically became later—birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences