Force, relative-displacement, and work networks in granular materials subjected to quasistatic deformation

To describe the heterogeneous nature of stress transmission in granular materials, the concept of the “strong” network consisting of contacts with large normal forces has been proposed by Radjaï et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 80, 61 (1998)]. The shear stress is mainly determined by this strong network. The dual viewpoint is adopted here, by not only considering the forces at contacts, but also the deformation. It is shown that the strain increments are determined by the tangential component of the relative displacements at the contacts. A “mobile” network consisting of contacts with large tangential relative displacements is defined that primarily accounts for the strain increments. The investigation of the relation between the strong and the mobile networks shows that these networks are largely unrelated. An alternative network is defined that consists of contacts at which the contribution to the work input is large. It is found that this work input occurs primarily through the tangential forces and tangential relative displacements

Power of photo-stress analysis in unravelling the mechanics of granular materials and its applications in interdisciplinary research

Granular materials, such as various grains and granulated powders, are essential in numerous industrial applications and natural processes, including the chemical, pharmaceutical, food, and materials processing industries. They also play a significant role in geotechnical phenomena like the shear-driven collapses of embankments and landslides, which can lead to extensive damage and disruptions. Despite a significant surge in research activities and advancements in discrete element modelling (DEM) tools since the late 1970s, understanding the mechanical characteristics of granular materials remains complex. Experimental techniques such as photo stress analysis (PSA), Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR), and X-ray tomography (XRT) offer valuable insights, yet there is still a lack of detailed information on how granular materials respond mechanically at the microscale under various loading conditions. This knowledge gap affects industrial product quality, equipment safety, production efficiency, operational costs, environmental compliance, and overall safety. In this paper, we initially focus on our scientific contributions to the development of photo stress analysis (PSA) in unravelling the load-transmission characteristics of granular materials of varying sizes and structures (two-dimensional and quasi-three-dimensional) under different mechanical loading environments and applications. Where relevant, discrete element modelling (DEM) complements PSA to enhance our understanding of granular mechanics. We then present the application of PSA to selected key interdisciplinary areas from our recent work, demonstrating the power of PSA. Despite current challenges in applying PSA to three-dimensional granular systems, the results reported here significantly advance our fundamental understanding of the particle-scale and micromechanical characteristics in granular mechanics and particulate engineering. This work highlights the potential of PSA in addressing various inter- and multidisciplinary research problems in the future

Shear stress distribution within narrowly constrained structured grains and granulated powder beds

An experimental study is presented here to understand the stress transmission characteristics under different geometrical arrangements of particulates inside a narrow chamber subjected to axial compression loading. The multi-grain systems considered here are face-centred, simple cubic and poly-dispersed structures, as well as inclusions embedded inside seeded, unseeded and cohesive powder bed of Durcal (calcium carbonate). The distribution of the maximum shear stress, direction of the major principal stress and shear stress concentration factor were obtained using photo stress analysis tomography (PSAT). The results show that the maximum shear stress distribution in the simple cubic structure is chain-like and self-repetitive, i.e, a single grain behaviour is representative of the whole system. This is not the case in the case of other granular packing. In the case of the inclusion surrounded by powder media, the maximum shear stress distribution in the inclusion occurs through ring-like structures, which are different from those observed in the structured granular packing. This tendency increases for an increase in the cohesivity of the surrounding particulates. In the granular systems, the direction of the major principal stress is mostly orthogonal to the direction of loading except in some particles in the random granular packing. In the case of inclusion surrounded by Durcal particulates, the directional of the major principal stress acts along the direction of the axial loading except in the ring region where this tends to be oblique to the direction of axial loading. Estimates of the shear stress concentration factor (k) show that, k tends to be independent of the structural arrangement of granular packing at higher load levels. In the case of inclusion surrounded by powder bed, k for the seeded granulated particulate bed is mostly independent of the external load levels. In the case of unseeded particulate (granulated) bed, a fluctuation in k is observed with the loading level. This suggests that the seeded granules could distribute stresses in a stable manner without much change in the nature of shear stress-transmitting fabric of the particulate contacts under external loading. An increase in the cohesion of particulate bed results in more plastic deformation as shown by the differential shear stress concentration factor. The results reported in this study show the usefulness of optical stress analysis to shed some scientific lights on unravelling some of the complexities of particulate systems under different structural arrangements of grains and surrounding conditions of the inclusions in particulate media

Case study in six sigma methadology : manufacturing quality improvement and guidence for managers

This article discusses the successful implementation of Six Sigma methodology in a high precision and critical process in the manufacture of automotive products. The Six Sigma define–measure–analyse–improve–control approach resulted in a reduction of tolerance-related problems and improved the first pass yield from 85% to 99.4%. Data were collected on all possible causes and regression analysis, hypothesis testing, Taguchi methods, classification and regression tree, etc. were used to analyse the data and draw conclusions. Implementation of Six Sigma methodology had a significant financial impact on the profitability of the company. An approximate saving of US$70,000 per annum was reported, which is in addition to the customer-facing benefits of improved quality on returns and sales. The project also had the benefit of allowing the company to learn useful messages that will guide future Six Sigma activities

Effect of boundaries on the force distributions in granular media

The effect of boundaries on the force distributions in granular media is illustrated by simulations of 2D packings of frictionless, Hertzian spheres. To elucidate discrepancies between experimental observations and theoretical predictions, we distinguish between the weight distribution {\cal P} (w) measured in experiments and analyzed in the q-model, and the distribution of interparticle forces P(f). The latter one is robust, while {\cal P}(w) can be obtained once the local packing geometry and P(f) are known. By manipulating the (boundary) geometry, we show that {\cal P}(w) can be varied drastically.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Impact of post-Born lensing on the CMB

Lensing of the CMB is affected by post-Born lensing, producing corrections to the convergence power spectrum and introducing field rotation. We show numerically that the lensing convergence power spectrum is affected at the lesssim 0.2% level on accessible scales, and that this correction and the field rotation are negligible for observations with arcminute beam and noise levels gsim 1 μK arcmin. The field rotation generates ~ 2.5% of the total lensing B-mode polarization amplitude (0.2% in power on small scales), but has a blue spectrum on large scales, making it highly subdominant to the convergence B modes on scales where they are a source of confusion for the signal from primordial gravitational waves. Since the post-Born signal is non-linear, it also generates a bispectrum with the convergence. We show that the post-Born contributions to the bispectrum substantially change the shape predicted from large-scale structure non-linearities alone, and hence must be included to estimate the expected total signal and impact of bispectrum biases on CMB lensing reconstruction quadratic estimators and other observables. The field-rotation power spectrum only becomes potentially detectable for noise levels Lt 1 μK arcmin, but its bispectrum with the convergence may be observable at ~ 3σ with Stage IV observations. Rotation-induced and convergence-induced B modes are slightly correlated by the bispectrum, and the bispectrum also produces additional contributions to the lensed BB power spectrum

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden