Bayesian model selection for testing the no-hair theorem with black hole ringdowns

General relativity predicts that a black hole that results from the merger of two compact stars (either black holes or neutron stars) is initially highly deformed but soon settles down to a quiescent state by emitting a superposition of quasi-normal modes (QNMs). The QNMs are damped sinusoids with characteristic frequencies and decay times that depend only on the mass and spin of the black hole and no other parameter - a statement of the no-hair theorem. In this paper we have examined the extent to which QNMs could be used to test the no-hair theorem with future ground- and space-based gravitational-wave detectors. We model departures from general relativity (GR) by introducing extra parameters which change the mode frequencies or decay times from their general relativistic values. With the aid of numerical simulations and Bayesian model selection, we assess the extent to which the presence of such a parameter could be inferred, and its value estimated. We find that it is harder to decipher the departure of decay times from their GR value than it is with the mode frequencies. Einstein Telescope (ET, a third generation ground-based detector) could detect departures of <1% in the frequency of the dominant QNM mode of a 500 Msun black hole, out to a maximum range of 4 Gpc. In contrast, the New Gravitational Observatory (NGO, an ESA space mission to detect gravitational waves) can detect departures of ~ 0.1% in a 10^8 Msun black hole to a luminosity distance of 30 Gpc (z = 3.5).Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Techniques for targeted Fermi-GBM follow-up of gravitational-wave events

The Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo ground-based gravitational-wave detectors are projected to come online 2015-2016, reaching a final sensitivity sufficient to observe dozens of binary neutron star mergers per year by 2018. We present a fully-automated, targeted search strategy for prompt gamma-ray counterparts in offline Fermi-GBM data. The multi-detector method makes use of a detailed model response of the instrument, and benefits from time and sky location information derived from the gravitational-wave signal.Comment: 2012 Fermi Symposium proceedings - eConf C12102

Organised drives will control foxes

Until 1916, there were no foxes known to exist in Western Australia. One was reported as having been seen at Esperance in that year and there are records of a fox being shot at Sandstone in 1917. Within a few years of the first recordings, foxes had spread almost throughout the State, and although bonuses have been paid on over 893,000 fox scalps during the past 30 years, we still have a large and thriving fox population which takes a heavy annual toll of young lambs and poultry besides contributing to insect damage of crops and pastures by the destruction of insectivorous birds

The varying role of the GP in the pathway between colonoscopy and surgery for colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

Extent: 11p.Objectives: To describe general practitioner (GP) involvement in the treatment referral pathway for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Design: A retrospective cohort analysis of linked data. Setting: A population-based sample of CRC patients diagnosed from August 2004 to December 2007 in New South Wales, Australia, using the 45 and Up Study, cancer registry diagnosis records, inpatient hospital records and Medicare claims records. Participants: 407 CRC patients who had a colonoscopy followed by surgery. Primary outcome measures: Patterns of GP consultations between colonoscopy and surgery (ie, between diagnosis and treatment). We investigated whether consulting a GP presurgery was associated with time to surgery, postsurgical GP consultations or rectal cancer cases having surgery in a centre with radiotherapy facilities. Results: Of the 407 patients, 43% (n=175) had at least one GP consultation between colonoscopy and surgery. The median time from colonoscopy to surgery was 27 days for those with an intervening GP consultation and 15 days for those without the consultation. 55% (n=223) had a GP consultation up to 30 days postsurgery; it was more common in cases of patients who consulted a GP presurgery than for those who did not (65% and 47%, respectively, adjusted OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.50 to 4.89, p=0.001). Of the 142 rectal cancer cases, 23% (n=33) had their surgery in a centre with radiotherapy facilities, with no difference between those who did and did not consult a GP presurgery (21% and 25% respectively, adjusted OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.27 to 2.63, p=0.76). Conclusions: Consulting a GP between colonoscopy and surgery was associated with a longer interval between diagnosis and treatment, and with further GP consultations postsurgery, but for rectal cancer cases it was not associated with treatment in a centre with radiotherapy facilities. GPs might require a more defined and systematic approach to CRC management.David Goldsbury, Mark Harris, Shane Pascoe, Michael Barton, Ian Olver, Allan Spigelman, Justin Beilby, Craig Veitch, David Weller, Dianne L O'Connel

A Bayesian approach to the follow-up of candidate gravitational wave signals

Ground-based gravitational wave laser interferometers (LIGO, GEO-600, Virgo and Tama-300) have now reached high sensitivity and duty cycle. We present a Bayesian evidence-based approach to the search for gravitational waves, in particular aimed at the followup of candidate events generated by the analysis pipeline. We introduce and demonstrate an efficient method to compute the evidence and odds ratio between different models, and illustrate this approach using the specific case of the gravitational wave signal generated during the inspiral phase of binary systems, modelled at the leading quadrupole Newtonian order, in synthetic noise. We show that the method is effective in detecting signals at the detection threshold and it is robust against (some types of) instrumental artefacts. The computational efficiency of this method makes it scalable to the analysis of all the triggers generated by the analysis pipelines to search for coalescing binaries in surveys with ground-based interferometers, and to a whole variety of signal waveforms, characterised by a larger number of parameters.Comment: 9 page

Effects of geometry variations on the performance of podded propulsors

This paper presents results and analyses of an experimental study into the effects of geometric parameters on the propulsive characteristics of puller and pusher podded propulsors in straight course open water conditions. Five geometric parameters were chosen for the current study and a design of experiment technique was used to design a series of 16 pods that combined the parameters. Tests on the 16 different pod-strut-propeller combinations in puller and pusher configurations were completed using a custom designed podded propeller test rig. The dynamometry consisted of a six-component global dynamometer and a three-component pod dynamometer. The test rig was used to measure the thrust and torque of the propellers, and forces and moments on the whole unit in the three orthogonal directions. The design of experiment analysis technique was then used to identify the most significant geometric parameters and interaction of parameters that affect propeller thrust, torque and efficiency as well as unit thrust and efficiency in both the puller and pusher configurations. An uncertainty analysis of the measurements is also presented

Active transport, independent mobility and territorial range among children residing in disadvantaged areas

Available online 14 March 2014Regular physical activity during childhood and adolescence promotes physical and mental health across the lifespan. Walking and cycling for transport may be important, inexpensive and accessible sources of physical activity among socioeconomically disadvantaged youth. This study aimed to examine active transport and independent mobility (i.e. walking/cycling without adult accompaniment) on journeys to school and other local destinations, and their associations with children's physical activity in disadvantaged urban and rural areas of Victoria, Australia. In addition, associations were examined between children's perceived accessibility of local destinations by walking/cycling and their territorial range (i.e. how far they were allowed to roam without adult accompaniment).Survey-reported active transport, independent mobility, territorial range, and objectively-measured physical activity were analysed for 271 children (mean age 12.1 (SD 2.2) years). Habitual travel modes (on 3 or more days/week) were examined. Car travel was most prevalent to (43%) and from (33%) school, while 25% walked to school, 31% walked home, and few cycled (6%). Most walking/cycling trips were made independently. Total weekly duration rather than frequency of active transport to school was positively associated with physical activity. No associations were found between independent mobility and physical activity. Territorial range was restricted - only a third of children were allowed to roam more than 15. min from home alone, while approximately half were allowed to do so with friends. The number of accessible destination types in the neighbourhood was positively associated with territorial range. This research provides evidence of how active transport contributes to children's physical activity and a preliminary understanding of children's independent mobility on journeys to school and local destinations. Further research is required to explore influences on these behaviours.Alison Carver, Jenny Veitch, Shannon Sahlqvist, David Crawford, Clare Hum

Bayesian coherent analysis of in-spiral gravitational wave signals with a detector network

The present operation of the ground-based network of gravitational-wave laser interferometers in "enhanced" configuration brings the search for gravitational waves into a regime where detection is highly plausible. The development of techniques that allow us to discriminate a signal of astrophysical origin from instrumental artefacts in the interferometer data and to extract the full range of information are some of the primary goals of the current work. Here we report the details of a Bayesian approach to the problem of inference for gravitational wave observations using a network of instruments, for the computation of the Bayes factor between two hypotheses and the evaluation of the marginalised posterior density functions of the unknown model parameters. The numerical algorithm to tackle the notoriously difficult problem of the evaluation of large multi-dimensional integrals is based on a technique known as Nested Sampling, which provides an attractive alternative to more traditional Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We discuss the details of the implementation of this algorithm and its performance against a Gaussian model of the background noise, considering the specific case of the signal produced by the in-spiral of binary systems of black holes and/or neutron stars, although the method is completely general and can be applied to other classes of sources. We also demonstrate the utility of this approach by introducing a new coherence test to distinguish between the presence of a coherent signal of astrophysical origin in the data of multiple instruments and the presence of incoherent accidental artefacts, and the effects on the estimation of the source parameters as a function of the number of instruments in the network.Comment: 22 page

Where on Earth Are the Best-50 Time Servers?

© 2019, Springer Nature Switzerland AG. We present a list of the Best-50 public IPv4 time servers by mining a high-resolution dataset of Stratum-1 servers for Availability, Stratum Constancy, Leap Performance, and Clock Error, broken down by continent. We find that a server with ideal leap performance, high availability, and low stratum variation is often clock error-free, but this is no guarantee. We discuss the relevance and lifetime of our findings, the scalability of our approach, and implications for load balancing and server ranking