Численное моделирование снежного покрова на о. Гукера (архипелаг Земля Франца-Иосифа)

Results obtained by simulating snow characteristics with a numerical model of surface heat and moisture exchange SPONSOR are presented. The numerical experiments are carried out for Franz Josef Land with typical Arctic climate conditions. The blizzard evaporation parameter is shown to have great influence on snow depth on territories with high wind speed. This parameter significantly improves the simulation quality of the numerical model. Some discrepancies between evaluated and observed snow depth values can be explained by inaccuracies in precipitation measurements (at least in certain cases) and errors in calculations of incoming radiation, mostly due to low accuracy in the cloudiness observations.Рассмотрены результаты численного воспроизведения характеристик снежного покрова с помощью модели тепловлагообмена SPONSOR. Эксперименты проводились для Земли Франца-Иосифа с типичным арктическим климатом. Установлено, что на территориях, где наблюдаются высокие скорости ветра, толщина снежного покрова в значительной степени связана с величиной метелевого испарения. Учёт этого параметра заметно улучшает качество расчётов численной модели. Некоторые расхождения между рассчитанными и реальными значениями толщины снежного покрова можно объяснить неточностями в измерениях осадков и погрешностями вычислений приходящей солнечной радиации. Последнее, в основном, объясняется невысокой точностью наблюдений за облачностью

Оценка эффективности противолавинных мероприятий на горнолыжном курорте «Красная Поляна»

For the first time, a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of anti-avalanche measures was carried out for the territory of the «Krasnaya Polyana» ski resort, located in the Western Caucasus on the Aibga ridge. The following materials were used for this work: the results of field survey in 2019, which made it possible to map the resort's infrastructure exposed to possible snow avalanches and protected by existing preventive (anti-avalanche) measures, experience of similar studies from other regions as well as identification of the avalanche release zones by means of digital elevation model and analysis of remote sensing data, archive data on the snow avalanches regime at the site, and numerical modeling of the snow avalanches with different starting conditions. Modeling of the avalanches was performed in the RAMMS program basing on three scenarios: 1) taking account of the successful operation of existing anti-avalanche measures; 2) with regard for the failures in the work of existing anti-avalanche measures that were recorded earlier during the operation of the resort; 3) without considering any anti-avalanche measures, which corresponded to the conditions at the stage of the territorial planning of the resort. Differences in the impact of simulated avalanches on the resort infrastructure were interpreted as «high», «medium» and «low» effectiveness of existing antiavalanche measures. It was found that the dynamical characteristics of the local avalanches (run-out distance, volume, velocity, and pressure) had different importance for different types of the infrastructure with regard to the effectiveness of anti-avalanche measures. Under existing conditions of the relief, climate and vegetation of the investigated territory the artificial triggering (at the ski resort it is mainly made by the Gazex systems) is the most efficient. Snow-retaining structures often do not perform their functions, while dams and avalanche cutters can be successful only in combination with the properly functioning artificial triggering. It was found that there are areas where the run-out distance of artificially controlled avalanches is smaller than that of possible natural avalanches, and these areas can still be dangerous for the infrastructure of the resort due to the high values of the avalanche speed and pressure.Впервые на основе предложенного в работе комплексного подхода выполнена оценка инженерно-географической эффективности всех видов противолавинных мероприятий, применяемых на горнолыжном курорте «Красная Поляна», с использованием метода математического моделирования лавин. В условиях рельефа, климата и растительности исследуемой территории искусственно регулируемый сброс лавин (в основном осуществляемый системами Gazex®) наиболее эффективен. Снегоудерживающие сооружения не всегда выполняют свои функции, в то время как дамбы и лавинорезы могут быть эффективными только в комплексе с искусственно регулируемыми сбросами лавин. Предложенная авторами методика оценки эффективности методов защиты от лавин может использоваться при планировании противолавинных мероприятий, позволяя снижать экономические затраты при организации и функционировании курортов

Оценка экономического риска для горнолыжных курортов, связанного с изменением продолжительности залегания снежного покрова

Winter tourism that is intensively developed in the Russian Federation in recent years strongly depends on the snow availability and properties in the region. Climate changes exert significant influence on the functioning of mountain ski resorts, especially if they are located in areas with relatively high air temperatures in winter season. At the present time, a snowy cluster of mountain ski resorts is intensively progressing in vicinity of Krasnaya Polyana. This region in the West Caucasus (Russia) is characterized by relatively warm climate conditions. The snow cover thickness (of 1% insurance) in area of the Aibga mountain range may reach 8.1 m. But the snow cover thickness is not the only characteristic of the mountain skiing attractiveness. According to the Swiss standards a mountain ski resort can be considered reliable if during seven seasons of ten ones the snow cover with minimal thickness of 30–50 cm exists for a time not shorter than 100 days during a period from 1st December till 15th April.According to the forecast, during future decades the calculated amount of solid precipitation should reduce by 25–30% in mountain regions on the south macro-slope of the Great Caucasus. As the calculations show, by 2041–2050 the maximal decade thickness of snow cover will decrease by 29–35% while a number of days with snow – by 35–40%. If this is the case, artificial snow will be needed in addition to the natural one. But, under warm climate conditions using of plants for artificial snow production will require a certain perfecting of the nowadays technologies, and very likely, with use of chemicals. That is why a shadowing of existing mountain ski routes by means of the tree planting along them could be ecologically more promising. As for the mountain ski resorts of the West Caucasus, we should mention a possible weakening of the avalanche activity as a potential positive effect of the climate warming predicted by models.На примере района Красной Поляны рассматривается зависимость надёжности функционирования горнолыжных курортов от продолжительности залегания устойчивого снежного покрова в условиях изменяющегося климата. Делается вывод о необходимости при организации новых зимних курортов детального анализа существующей климатической ситуации и возможных её изменений. Оцениваются вероятные экономические потери для действующих горнолыжных курортов в данном районе

Пространственно-временная неоднородность снежной толщи по данным пенетрометра SnowMicroPen

Te paper presents the results of studies aimed at investigation of the spatial and temporal variability of snow coverstructure on the basis of strength values and its variations obtained by means of the high-resolution penetrometer SnowMicroPen. Te possibilities of fast and independent from the observer identifcation of layers (including identifcation of weakened, potentially avalanche-dangerous layers) were estimated under the climatic conditions of Moscow and the Khibiny mountains. Horizontal areas with homogeneous underlying surface and vegetation were selected for the stratigraphic studies that made it possible to avoid a possible influence of slope relief and exposure from the obtained data on the spatial and temporal variability of the snow depth structure. Te analysis of the information obtained in winter seasons 2014/15 and 2016/17 allowed constructing detailed schemes of the snow cover evolution at the Moscow site as well as assessing the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of its structure. Afer the SnowMicroPen data were recorded in the course of the feld works carried out in winter 2015/16 on the Khibiny educational and scientifc base of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (city of Kirovsk), the 10-meter trench on the same profle was described in details, and direct data on the snow cover structure were obtained. Te strength values resulted from the above studies characterize the layers composed of crystals of various shapes and sizes, and they are considered as the frst step to methodology of operational defnition of the spatially-inhomogeneous stratigraphy and stability of snowpack without snowpit observations. Te data analysis showed high spatial and temporal variability of the structure and properties of snow cover even at a homogeneous area, usually described by a single snowpit.Представлены результаты исследований снежной толщи, полученные на двух полигонах в Москве и Хибинах. Исследована пространственная неоднородность снежной толщи и её изменения в течение зимнего сезона. Прочность снега определяли с помощью пенетрометра высокого разрешения SnowMicroPen. Построены и проанализированы схемы развития снежной толщи и её пространственная изменчивость

Антропогенное влияние на лавинную и селевую активность

The paper presents examples of the change in snow avalanches and debris flows activity due to the anthropogenic pressure on vegetation and relief. The changes in dynamical characteristics of selected snow avalanches and debris flows due to the anthropogenic activity are quantified. The conclusion is made that the anthropogenic effects on the snow avalanches and debris flows activity are more pronounced than the possible effects of the climate change. The necessity is expressed on the unavoidable changes of the natural environment as the result of a construction and of use of the constructed infrastructure to be account for in corresponding planning of the protection measures.Приведены примеры изменения лавинной и селевой активности при антропогенном воздействии на растительность и рельеф. Даётся количественная оценка изменения характеристик отдельных лавин и селей в результате деятельности человека. Делается вывод о преобладающем влиянии человеческого воздействия на лавинную и селевую активность по сравнению с возможными последствиями изменения климата. Высказана необходимость учёта неизбежных изменений природной среды, происходящих в процессе строительства и использования объектов инфраструктуры, при соответствующем планировании противолавинных и противоселевых мероприятий

Методика учёта лавинной опасности при территориальном планировании в России

The legislation of the Russian Federation establishes the need to take into account hazardous natural processes and their parameters in territorial planning, as well as presentation of them in the relevant documentation in the form of maps. In a number of countries, there is a long-standing practice of mapping the avalanche zones basing on the definition of different levels of danger, which are used to limit or ban the construction in avalanche zones, as well as to project the anti-avalanche activities. Russia has experience in assessing risk and mapping the avalanche danger, but the practice of making such plans in our country is still not developed. The purpose of this work is to determine and plot on map avalanche zones on the example of one of the actively developed mountain regions of Russia. The all-season mountain resort «Gorky Gorod», located on Krasnaya Polyana in the Krasnodar region, was chosen as the object of study. Two approaches to the accounting and mapping of avalanche hazard in territorial planning were tested. In the first case, occurrence and pressure of avalanches were the determining factors. In the second case, critical avalanche pressure values were used to determine their destructive impact effect. To determine indexes (indicators) of the avalanche hazard, the simulation of snow avalanches in the RAMMS program was performed. According to the results of modeling for area of the «Gorky Gorod» resort schemes of the avalanche zones were constructed on the basis of two different approaches, having no account for the anti-avalanche measures used there. A more detailed plan based on a combination of these two approaches had also been drawn up and analyzed. The required criteria for determining the boundaries of zones with different levels of the danger are the subject for discussion. However, the proposed division of avalanchedangerous territory into zones with different levels of the hazard at the stage of territorial planning meets the requirements of the legislation and contributes to improving human security, reducing the avalanche risk, and mitigating the consequences of emergencies caused by avalanches.Исследование, направленное на совершенствование учёта лавинной опасности при территориальном планировании, выполнено для горного курорта «Горки Город» на Красной Поляне в Краснодарском крае. Апробированы два подхода к учёту лавинной опасности и их комбинации. Значения показателей лавинной опасности определены путём моделирования лавин в программе RAMMS. По результатам моделирования для территории курорта «Горки Город» составлены планы лавиноопасных зон. 

Методика оценки лавинного питания (на примере трёх ледников Тянь-Шаня)

The contribution of snow avalanches to the seasonal snow accumulation on a glacier is among the least studied components of the glacier’s mass balance. The methods for the numerical assessment of avalanche accumulation are still under development, which is related to poor avalanche data availability and difficulties in obtaining such data on most of mountain glaciers. We propose a possible methodology for the numerical assessment of snow avalanche contribution to snow accumulation at mountain glaciers based on DEM and weather data analysis using GIS and numerical modeling of snow avalanches. The developed methodology consists of the following steps: terrain analysis; weather data analysis; snow avalanche volume assessment during an analyzed balance year; numerical simulation of snow avalanches using RAMMS; evaluation of snow avalanches contribution into a glacier accumulation. The proposed methodology was tested on three glaciers located in the Inner Tien Shan: Batysh Sook, № 354 and Karabatkak during the 2015/16 balance year. To evaluate snow avalanche contribution to the seasonal accumulation, we reconstructed avalanche release zones that were most probably active during the 2015/16 balance year and corresponding snow fracture height in each of these zones. The numerical simulations of most probable released snow avalanches during the winter period 2015/16 using avalanche dynamics software RAMMS were performed and compared with the field observations and UAV orthophoto image from July 2016. The outlines of avalanches deposits were realistically reproduced by RAMMS according to the results of field observation. The estimated share of snow avalanche contribution to the accumulation on the research glaciers during the 2015/16 balance year turned out to be: Batysh Sook – 7,4±2,5%; № 354 – 2,2±0,7%; Karabatkak – 10,8±3,6% of the total accumulation. The next step would be to test the proposed methodology based on the data and regional dependences from the Inner Tien Shan in other mountainous regions. This methodology is applicable in the regions where DEMs, regular meteorological observations as well as data on the regional avalanche formation factors are available.Предложена новая методика количественной оценки лавинного питания ледников, основанная на анализе рельефа и данных метеорологических наблюдений с использованием методов геоинформационного картографирования и математического моделирования. Рассмотрены результаты её применения на трёх ледниках Тянь-Шаня: Западный Суёк, № 354, Карабаткак

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Numerical modeling of a snow cover on Hooker Island (Franz Josef Land archipelago)

Results obtained by simulating snow characteristics with a numerical model of surface heat and moisture exchange SPONSOR are presented. The numerical experiments are carried out for Franz Josef Land with typical Arctic climate conditions. The blizzard evaporation parameter is shown to have great influence on snow depth on territories with high wind speed. This parameter significantly improves the simulation quality of the numerical model. Some discrepancies between evaluated and observed snow depth values can be explained by inaccuracies in precipitation measurements (at least in certain cases) and errors in calculations of incoming radiation, mostly due to low accuracy in the cloudiness observations

Assessment of the economic risk for the ski resorts of changes in snow cover duration

Winter tourism that is intensively developed in the Russian Federation in recent years strongly depends on the snow availability and properties in the region. Climate changes exert significant influence on the functioning of mountain ski resorts, especially if they are located in areas with relatively high air temperatures in winter season. At the present time, a snowy cluster of mountain ski resorts is intensively progressing in vicinity of Krasnaya Polyana. This region in the West Caucasus (Russia) is characterized by relatively warm climate conditions. The snow cover thickness (of 1% insurance) in area of the Aibga mountain range may reach 8.1 m. But the snow cover thickness is not the only characteristic of the mountain skiing attractiveness. According to the Swiss standards a mountain ski resort can be considered reliable if during seven seasons of ten ones the snow cover with minimal thickness of 30–50 cm exists for a time not shorter than 100 days during a period from 1st December till 15th April.According to the forecast, during future decades the calculated amount of solid precipitation should reduce by 25–30% in mountain regions on the south macro-slope of the Great Caucasus. As the calculations show, by 2041–2050 the maximal decade thickness of snow cover will decrease by 29–35% while a number of days with snow – by 35–40%. If this is the case, artificial snow will be needed in addition to the natural one. But, under warm climate conditions using of plants for artificial snow production will require a certain perfecting of the nowadays technologies, and very likely, with use of chemicals. That is why a shadowing of existing mountain ski routes by means of the tree planting along them could be ecologically more promising. As for the mountain ski resorts of the West Caucasus, we should mention a possible weakening of the avalanche activity as a potential positive effect of the climate warming predicted by models