Assessing Steady-State, Multivariate Experimental Data Using Gaussian Processes: The GPExp Open-Source Library

Experimental data are subject to different sources of disturbance and errors, whose importance should be assessed. The level of noise, the presence of outliers or a measure of the “explainability” of the key variables with respect to the externally-imposed operating condition are important indicators, but are not straightforward to obtain, especially if the data are sparse and multivariate. This paper proposes a methodology and a suite of tools implementing Gaussian processes for quality assessment of steady-state experimental data. The aim of the proposed tool is to: (1) provide a smooth (de-noised) multivariate operating map of the measured variable with respect to the inputs; (2) determine which inputs are relevant to predict a selected output; (3) provide a sensitivity analysis of the measured variables with respect to the inputs; (4) provide a measure of the accuracy (confidence intervals) for the prediction of the data; (5) detect the observations that are likely to be outliers. We show that Gaussian processes regression provides insightful numerical indicators for these purposes and that the obtained performance is higher or comparable to alternative modeling techniques. Finally, the datasets and tools developed in this work are provided within the GPExp open-source package

The importance of open data and software: Is energy research lagging behind?

Energy policy often builds on insights gained from quantitative energy models and their underlying data. As climate change mitigation and economic concerns drive a sustained transformation of the energy sector, transparent and well-founded analyses are more important than ever. We assert that models and their associated data must be openly available to facilitate higher quality science, greater productivity through less duplicated effort, and a more effective science-policy boundary. There are also valid reasons why data and code are not open: ethical and security concerns, unwanted exposure, additional workload, and institutional or personal inertia. Overall, energy policy research ostensibly lags behind other fields in promoting more open and reproducible science. We take stock of the status quo and propose actionable steps forward for the energy research community to ensure that it can better engage with decision-makers and continues to deliver robust policy advice in a transparent and reproducible way

A qualitative risk assessment for human salmonellosis due to the consumption of fresh pork in Belgium

Although pigs contaminated with Salmonella rarely show clinical symptoms, control is important because of the public health concern. Both producers and consumers are interested in procedures for minimizing the risk of Salmonella infections. This study outlines the entire production path for fresh pork in Belgium, from farm to fork. Additionally, it describes the different critical points for Salmonella contamination, with emphasis on those steps that need extra attention and/or improvement. The data was collected by means of questionnaires at the different steps of the process. In total, 3658 questionnaires were collected, which made it possible to draw up a nationwide image of the pork production process. In the primary production phase, there are several points relating to biosecurity that can be improved in order to minimize the risk for Salmonella in fattening pigs that are sent to slaughter. In the slaughterhouse, there has been an increase in the number of pigs or carcasses that become infected with Salmonella. Attention should be paid to avoiding contact of the feces and tonsils of contaminated pigs with the carcass, and strict hygienic measures should be taken to avoid cross-contamination. During the transformation and distribution of the carcasses, there is a low risk of further spreading of Salmonella spp. Finally, during the consumer phase, the risk for Salmonella contamination increases because of inappropriate temperature conditions during storage, manipulation of the meat and possible cross-contamination with other food products, and the consumption of insufficiently heated and/or raw meat. The present study illustrates that the risk of Salmonella infection by consumption of fresh pork is relatively low under Belgian conditions. Nevertheless, it can be further decreased by implementing additional control measures, mainly in the slaughterhouse and in the domestic kitchen

Future perspectives on sustainable tribology

AbstractThis paper highlights the future perspectives of sustainable tribology by examining the economic, environmental and social impact of three tribological case studies. One case study examines the sustainability and durability of micro-CHP systems looking the tribological phenomena generated within a scroll expander system. The scroll is the main part of a specific micro-CHP system and experiences wear and cavitation damage. The tribological optimization of the scroll expander improves the sustainability of the micro-CHP unit while it has a serious economic and environmental impact to the consumers and to the society in general. Another case study is focused on friction and wear performance of lifeboat launch slipways. The causes of high friction and wear during the RNLI's lifeboat launches along an inclined slipway are investigated with a view to reducing the environmental impact due to slipway panel wear and lubricant release into the marine environment. The project encompasses the sustainable design of slipway panels using design modifications based on tribological investigations to double their lifespan, while environmental and economic impact was significantly reduced by the use of biodegradable greases and water as lubricants. The final case study involves an investigation of recycled plastic materials to replace polyurethane used on skateboard wheels, scooters and similar applications. Polyurethane (PU) is difficult to recycle. With the dwindling resources and environmental problems facing the world today, recycling for both waste reduction and resource preservation has become an increasingly important aspect of sustainability. The tribological results showed that recycled polycarbonate plastic can effectively act as a substitute to polyurethane wheels. Moreover, sustainability considerations showing the environmental benefits of the use of recycled plastics over PU include reducing the CO2 footprint by 50% and the energy consumed by 60%, among other benefits. These case studies emphasise the importance of sustainable tribology in our epoch showing that increased sustainability performance can be achieved through tribology to a significant extent in many cases, providing stability to our world and more viable long term growth to our societies

Contribution of respiratory pathogens to influenza-like illness consultations

Influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) are caused by several respiratory pathogens. These pathogens show weak to strong seasonal activity implying seasonality in ILI consultations. In this paper, the contribution of pathogens to seasonality of ILI consultations was statistically modelled. Virological count data were first smoothed using modulation models for seasonal time series. Second, Poisson regression was used regressing ILI consultation counts on the smoothed time series. Using ratios of the estimated regression parameters, relative measures of the underreporting of pathogens were obtained. Influenza viruses A and B, parainfluenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) significantly contributed to explain the seasonal variation in ILI consultations. We also found that RSV was the least and influenza virus A is the most underreported pathogen in Belgian laboratory surveillance. The proposed methods and results are helpful in interpreting the data of clinical and laboratory surveillance, which are the essential parts of influenza surveillance

Experimental and thermodynamic analysis of a bottoming Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) of gasoline engine using swash-plate expander

This paper deals with the experimental testing of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) integrate in a 2 liter turbocharged gasoline engine using ethanol as working fluid. The main components of the cycle are a boiler, a condenser, a pump and a swash-plate expander. Five engine operating points have been tested, they correspond to a nominal heat input into the boiler of 5, 12, 20, 25 and 30 kW. With the available bill of material based on prototypes, power balances and cycles efficiencies were estimated, obtaining a maximum improvement in the ICE mechanical power and an expander shaft power of 3.7% and 1.83 kW respectively. A total of 28 steady-state operating points were measured to evaluate performance of the swash-plate expander prototype. Operating parameters of the expander, such as expander speed and expansion ratio, were shifted. The objective of the tests is to master the system and understand physical parameters influence. The importance of each parameter was analyzed by fixing all the parameters, changing each time one specific value. In these sensitivity studies, maximum ideal and real Rankine efficiency value of 19% and 6% were obtained respectively.This work is part of a research project called "Evaluation of bottoming cycles in IC engines to recover waste heat energies" funded by a National Project of the Spanish Government with reference TRA2013-46408-R.Galindo, J.; Ruiz Rosales, S.; Dolz Ruiz, V.; Royo Pascual, L.; Haller, R.; Nicolas, B.; Glavatskaya, Y. (2015). Experimental and thermodynamic analysis of a bottoming Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) of gasoline engine using swash-plate expander. Energy Conversion and Management. 103:519-532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.06.085S51953210

Dynamic model of supercritical Organic Rankine Cycle waste heat recovery system for internal combustion engine

The supercritical Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) for the Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) from Internal Combustion (IC) engines has been a growing research area in recent years, driven by the aim to enhance the thermal efficiency of the ORC and engine. Simulation of a supercritical ORC-WHR system before a real-time application is important as high pressure in the system may lead to concerns about safety and availability of components. In the ORC-WHR system, the evaporator is the main contributor to thermal inertia of the system and is considered to be the critical component since the heat transfer of this device influences the efficiency of the system. Since the thermo-physical properties of the fluid at supercritical pressures are dependent on temperature, it is necessary to consider the variations in properties of the working fluid. The wellknown Finite Volume (FV) discretization method is generally used to take those property changes into account. However, a FV model of the evaporator in steady state condition cannot be used to predict the thermal inertia of the cycle when it is subjected to transient heat sources. In this paper, a dynamic FV model of the evaporator has been developed and integrated with other components in the ORC-WHR system. The stability and transient responses along with the performance of the ORC-WHR system for the transient heat source are investigated and are also included in this paper

Incorporating high-resolution demand and techno-economic optimization to evaluate micro-grids into the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET)

For decades, electrification planning in the developing world has often focused on extending the national grid to increase electricity access. This article draws attention to the potential complementary role of decentralized alternatives – primarily micro-grids – to address universal electricity access targets. To this aim, we propose a methodology consisting of three steps to estimate the LCOE and to size micro-grids for large-scale geo-spatial electrification modelling. In the first step, stochastic load demand profiles are generated for a wide range of settlement archetypes using the open-source RAMP model. In the second step, stochastic optimization is carried by the open-source MicroGridsPy model for combinations of settlement size, load demand profiles and other important techno-economic parameters influencing the LCOE. In the third step, surrogate models are generated to automatically evaluate the LCOE using a multivariate regression of micro-grid optimization results as a function of influencing parameters defining each scenario instance. Our developments coupled to the OnSSET electrification tool reveal an important increase in the cost-competitiveness of micro-grids compared to previous analyses