The HIV-HCV co-infection dynamics in absence of therapy

Paper presented at the 5th Strathmore International Mathematics Conference (SIMC 2019), 12 - 16 August 2019, Strathmore University, Nairobi, KenyaHIV-HCV co-infection is whereby an individual is infected with both viruses HIV and HCV. Globally, approximately 4 to 5 million people are co-infected with HIV and HCV. HCV infection significantly causes morbidity and mortality among HIV patients. HCV is known to progress faster and cause more liver-related health problems and death among people who are HIV/AIDS positive than those who are negative. Co-infection with HCV complicates the management of HIV/AIDS. Mathematical modeling generally provides an explicit framework by which we can develop and communicate an understanding of transmission dynamics of an infectious disease. In this article, a deterministic model is used in which ordinary differential equations are formulated and analyzed to study the HIV-HCV co-infection dynamics in absence of therapy. The findings reveal that the basic reproduction number for HIV-HCV co infection dynamics is equal to the maximum of single-disease basic reproduction numbers. This implies that the dynamics of the HIV-HCV co-infection will be dominated by the disease with the bigger basic reproduction numberInstitute of Mathematical Sciences, Strathmore University, Nairobi, Kenya. Uganda Virus Research Institute London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Ugand

Planning an integrated disease surveillance and response system: a matrix of skills and activities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The threat of a global influenza pandemic and the adoption of the World Health Organization (WHO) International Health Regulations (2005) highlight the value of well-coordinated, functional disease surveillance systems. The resulting demand for timely information challenges public health leaders to design, develop and implement efficient, flexible and comprehensive systems that integrate staff, resources, and information systems to conduct infectious disease surveillance and response. To understand what resources an integrated disease surveillance and response system would require, we analyzed surveillance requirements for 19 priority infectious diseases targeted for an integrated disease surveillance and response strategy in the WHO African region.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a systematic task analysis to identify and standardize surveillance objectives, surveillance case definitions, action thresholds, and recommendations for 19 priority infectious diseases. We grouped the findings according to surveillance and response functions and related them to community, health facility, district, national and international levels.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The outcome of our analysis is a matrix of generic skills and activities essential for an integrated system. We documented how planners used the matrix to assist in finding gaps in current systems, prioritizing plans of action, clarifying indicators for monitoring progress, and developing instructional goals for applied epidemiology and in-service training programs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The matrix for Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) in the African region made clear the linkage between public health surveillance functions and participation across all levels of national health systems. The matrix framework is adaptable to requirements for new programs and strategies. This framework makes explicit the essential tasks and activities that are required for strengthening or expanding existing surveillance systems that will be able to adapt to current and emerging public health threats.</p

Phylogenetic Networks and Parameters Inferred from HIV Nucleotide Sequences of High-Risk and General Population Groups in Uganda:Implications for Epidemic Control

Phylogenetic inference is useful in characterising HIV transmission networks and assessing where prevention is likely to have the greatest impact. However, estimating parameters that influence the network structure is still scarce, but important in evaluating determinants of HIV spread. We analyzed 2017 HIV pol sequences (728 Lake Victoria fisherfolk communities (FFCs), 592 female sex workers (FSWs) and 697 general population (GP)) to identify transmission networks on Maximum Likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees and refined them using time-resolved phylogenies. Network generative models were fitted to the observed degree distributions and network parameters, and corrected Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criteria values were estimated. 347 (17.2%) HIV sequences were linked on ML trees (maximum genetic distance ≤4.5%, ≥95% bootstrap support) and, of these, 303 (86.7%) that consisted of pure A1 (n = 168) and D (n = 135) subtypes were analyzed in BEAST v1.8.4. The majority of networks (at least 40%) were found at a time depth of ≤5 years. The waring and yule models fitted best networks of FFCs and FSWs respectively while the negative binomial model fitted best networks in the GP. The network structure in the HIV-hyperendemic FFCs is likely to be scale-free and shaped by preferential attachment, in contrast to the GP. The findings support the targeting of interventions for FFCs in a timely manner for effective epidemic control. Interventions ought to be tailored according to the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in the target population and understanding the network structure is critical in ensuring the success of HIV prevention programs

Internalizing Mental Disorders and Accelerated Cellular Aging Among Perinatally HIV-Infected Youth in Uganda.

Introduction: Internalizing mental disorders (IMDs) in HIV+ children and adolescents are associated with impaired quality of life and non-adherence to anti-retroviral treatment. Telomere length is a biomarker of cellular aging, and shorter telomere length has been associated with IMDs. However, the nature of this association has yet to be elucidated. Objective: We determined the longitudinal association between IMDs and relative telomere length (rTL) and the influence of chronic stress among Ugandan perinatally HIV-infected youth (PHIY). Methods: IMDs (depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, and post-traumatic stress disorder) and IMDs were assessed using the locally adapted Child and Adolescent Symptom Inventory-5. In 368 PHIY with any IMD and 368 age- and sex-matched PHIY controls without any psychiatric disorder, rTL was assessed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to generate the three chronic stress classes (mild, moderate, and severe). t-tests were used to assess the difference between baseline and 12 month rTL and the mean difference in rTL between cases and controls both at baseline and at 12 months. Linear regression analysis was used to model the effects of chronic stress on the association between IMDs and rTL, controlling for age and sex. Results: We observed longer rTL among cases of IMDs compared with controls (p < 0.001). We also observed a statistically significant reduction in rTL between baseline and 12 months in the combined sample of cases and controls (p < 0.001). The same statistical difference was observed when cases and controls were individually analyzed (p < 0.001). We found no significant difference in rTL between cases and controls at 12 months (p = 0.117). We found no significant influence of chronic stress on the association between IMDs and rTL at both baseline and 12 months. Conclusion: rTL is longer among cases of IMDs compared with age- and sex-matched controls. We observed a significant attrition in rTL over 12 months, which seems to be driven by the presence of any IMDs. There is a need for future longitudinal and experimental studies to understand the mechanisms driving our findings

Health system barriers to strengthening vaccine-preventable disease surveillance and response in the context of decentralization: evidence from Georgia

BACKGROUND: A critical challenge in the health sector in developing countries is to ensure the quality and effectiveness of surveillance and public health response in an environment of decentralization. In Georgia, a country where there has been extensive decentralization of public health responsibilities over the last decade, an intervention was recently piloted to strengthen district-level local vaccine-preventable disease surveillance and response activities through improved capacity to analyze and use routinely collected data. The purpose of the study is 1) to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on motivation and perceived capacity to analyze and use information at the district-level, and 2) to assess the role that individual- and system-level factors play in influencing the effectiveness of the intervention. METHODS: A pre-post quasi-experimental research design is used for the quantitative evaluation. Data come from a baseline and two follow-up surveys of district-level health staff in 12 intervention and 3 control Center of Public Health (CPH) offices. These data were supplemented by record reviews in CPH offices as well as focus group discussions among CPH and health facility staff. RESULTS: The results of the study suggest that a number of expected improvements in perceived data availability and analysis occurred following the implementation of the intervention package, and that these improvements in analysis could be attributable to the intervention package. However, the study results also suggest that there exist several health systems barriers that constrained the effectiveness of the intervention in influencing the availability of data, analysis and response. CONCLUSION: To strengthen surveillance and response systems in Georgia, as well as in other countries, donor, governments, and other stakeholders should consider how health systems factors influence investments to improve the availability of data, analysis, and response. Linking the intervention to broader health sector reforms in management processes and organizational culture will be critical to ensure that efforts designed to promote evidence-based decision-making are successful, especially as they are scaled up to the national level

The 5-HTTLPR-rs25531 S-A-S-A Haplotype and Chronic Stress Moderate the Association Between Acute Stress and Internalizing Mental Disorders Among HIV+ Children and Adolescents in Uganda.

Background: Internalizing mental disorders (IMDs) among HIV-positive (HIV+) children and adolescents are associated with poor disease outcomes, such as faster HIV disease progression. Although it has been suggested that the development of IMDs is moderated by interaction of stressful life events and vulnerability factors, the underlying etiology is largely unknown. Serotonin transporter gene [solute carrier family 6 member A4 (SLC6A4)] and human tryptophan hydroxylase 2 gene (TPH2) polymorphisms have been implicated in the development of IMDs. This study investigated the association between acute stress and IMDs, and moderation by chronic stress and genetic variants in SLC6A4 and TPH2. Hypothesis: Acute stress acts through genetic and environmental vulnerability factors to increase the risk of developing IMDs. Methods: Polymorphisms in SLC6A4 (5-HTTLPR, rs25531, 5-HTTLPR-rs25531, and STin2 VNTR) and TPH2 (rs1843809, rs1386494, rs4570625, and rs34517220) were genotyped in 368 HIV+ children and adolescents (aged 5-17 years) with any internalizing mental disorder (depression, anxiety disorders, or posttraumatic stress disorder), and 368 age- and sex-matched controls, who were also HIV+. Chronic and acute stress categories were derived by hierarchical cluster analysis. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the independent moderating effect of chronic stress and each selected polymorphism on the association between acute stress and IMDs. Results: We observed a statistically significant association between severe acute stress and IMDs (p = 0.001). Children and adolescents who experienced severe acute stress were twice as likely to develop IMDs, compared to children and adolescents who experienced mild acute stress (p = 0.001). Chronic stress interacted with severe acute stress to increase the risk of IMDs (p = 0.033). Acute stress was found to interact with 5-HTTLPR-rs25531 S-A-S-A haplotype to increase the risk for IMDs among Ugandan HIV+ children and adolescents (p = 0.049). We found no evidence for a combined interaction of acute stress, chronic stress, and 5-HTTLPR-rs25531 on IMDs. Conclusion: The odds of having an internalizing mental disorder (IMD) were higher among HIV+ children and adolescents who experienced severe acute stress compared to HIV+ children and adolescents who experienced mild acute stress. Chronic stress and 5-HTTLPR-rs25531 independently moderated the association between acute stress and IMDs

Increasing leadership capacity for HIV/AIDS programmes by strengthening public health epidemiology and management training in Zimbabwe

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Increased funding for global human immunodeficiency virus prevention and control in developing countries has created both a challenge and an opportunity for achieving long-term global health goals. This paper describes a programme in Zimbabwe aimed at responding more effectively to the HIV/AIDS epidemic by reinforcing a critical competence-based training institution and producing public health leaders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The programme used new HIV/AIDS programme-specific funds to build on the assets of a local education institution to strengthen and expand the general public health leadership capacity in Zimbabwe, simultaneously ensuring that they were trained in HIV interventions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The programme increased both numbers of graduates and retention of faculty. The expanded HIV/AIDS curriculum was associated with a substantial increase in trainee projects related to HIV. The increased number of public health professionals has led to a number of practically trained persons working in public health leadership positions in the ministry, including in HIV/AIDS programmes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Investment of a modest proportion of new HIV/AIDS resources in targeted public health leadership training programmes can assist in building capacity to lead and manage national HIV and other public health programmes.</p