The application features of seasonal-cyclic patterns in international financial markets

The paper deals with the topical issue of studying cyclic patterns in the economy and their practical application for the forecasts on the development of financial markets. The work aims to establish the features of the seasonal-cyclic patterns "The January barometer" and "The first five days of January" in the international financial markets in current conditions and to develop recommendations for the practical application of these patterns in the investment activities. The US stock market as an integral part of the World financial market was chosen as a basis for research. The research was conducted by statistical processing of data on the values of the broad market index Standard & Poor's-500 for the period from 1950 to 2019. The study showed that the formation of forecasts about the annual growth or decline of the stock market index using the seasonal-cyclic patterns "The January barometer" and "The first five days of January" can show a high result in cases where the growth of the Standard & Poor's-500 index by the results of both the first five days of January and the results of the entire month of January of this year is a positive value. Otherwise, forecasting based on these instruments is not advisable. The best results (the forecast efficiency was 93.3%) were achieved with the joint application of both cyclic patterns. The practical application of the research results makes it possible to improve the efficiency of investment activities in international financial markets

Non-Typhi Salmonella gastroenteritis in children presenting to the emergency department: characteristics of patients with associated bacteraemia

ABSTRACTThe records of children with Salmonella gastroenteritis only (n = 97), and those with associated bacteraemia (n = 64), seen in one medical centre during a 12-year period, were analysed retrospectively. Mean patient age was 2.24 ± 2.8 years (range, 0.05–16 years), and 49% were male. Children with bacteraemia presented after a longer duration of symptoms (7.0 ± 6.9 vs. 3.9 ± 4.6 days, p 0.0002), and had higher erythrocyte sedimentation rates (45 ± 22 vs. 33 ± 22 mm/h, p < 0.02) and lactate dehydrogenase values (924 ± 113 vs. 685 ± 165 IU/L, p 0.001). There was a trend in bacteraemic children towards immunosuppression (6.3% vs. 1.0%, p 0.08) and a lower number of siblings (2.9 ± 1.9 vs. 3.8 ± 2.7, p 0.063). Non-bacteraemic children had a more severe clinical appearance, and a higher percentage had a moderate to bad general appearance (51.5 vs. 29.7%, p < 0.01), with dehydration (37.1 vs. 18.8%, p 0.02) and vomiting (58.8 vs. 39.0%, p 0.02). Laboratory dehydration indicators were also markedly worse in non-bacteraemic children, with urine specific gravity of 1020 ± 9.4 vs. 1013 ± 9.0 (p 0.0002), base excess of −4.2 ± 3.0 vs. −2.5 ± 3.4 mEq/L (p 0.01), and blood urea nitrogen of 10.1 ± 7.0 vs. 7.4 ± 4.5 mg% (p 0.002). Thus, the clinical presentation of bacteraemic children was more gradual, and associated gastroenteritis and dehydration was less pronounced. These findings may contribute in part to the inadvertent discharge of bacteraemic children from the emergency department

Survey on Vision-based Path Prediction

Path prediction is a fundamental task for estimating how pedestrians or vehicles are going to move in a scene. Because path prediction as a task of computer vision uses video as input, various information used for prediction, such as the environment surrounding the target and the internal state of the target, need to be estimated from the video in addition to predicting paths. Many prediction approaches that include understanding the environment and the internal state have been proposed. In this survey, we systematically summarize methods of path prediction that take video as input and and extract features from the video. Moreover, we introduce datasets used to evaluate path prediction methods quantitatively.Comment: DAPI 201

Defining localities of inadequate treatment for childhood asthma: A GIS approach

BACKGROUND: The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) has great potential for the management of chronic disease and the analysis of clinical and administrative health care data. Asthma is a chronic disease associated with substantial morbidity, mortality, and health care use. Epidemiologic data from all over the world show an increasing prevalence of asthma morbidity and mortality despite the availability of effective treatment. These facts led to the emergence of strategies developed to improve the quality of asthma care. THE OBJECTIVE: To develop an efficient tool for quality assurance and chronic disease management using a Geographic Information System (GIS). GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION: The southern region of Israel. January 1998 – October 2000. DATABASES: Administrative claims data of the largest HMO in Israel: drug dispensing registry, demographic data, Emergency Room visits, and hospitalization data bases. METHODS: We created a list of six markers for inadequate pharmaceutical treatment of childhood asthma from the Israeli clinical guidelines. We used this list to search the drug dispensing registry to identify asthmatic children who received inadequate treatment and to assess their health care utilization and bad outcomes: emergency room visits and hospitalizations. Using GIS we created thematic maps on which we located the clinics with a high percentage of children for whom the treatment provided was not in adherence with the clinical guidelines. RESULTS: 81% of the children were found to have at least one marker for inadequate treatment; 17.5% were found to have more than one marker. Children with markers were found to have statistically significant higher rates of Emergency Room visits, hospitalizations and longer length of stay in hospital compared with children without markers. The maps show in a robust way which clinics provided treatment not in accord with the clinical guidelines. Those clinics have high rates of Emergency Room visits, hospitalizations and length of stay. CONCLUSION: Integration of clinical guidelines, administrative data and GIS can create an efficient interface between administrative and clinical information. This tool can be used for allocating sites for quality assurance interventions

A mechanical Turing machine: blueprint for a biomolecular computer

We describe a working mechanical device that embodies the theoretical computing machine of Alan Turing, and as such is a universal programmable computer. The device operates on three-dimensional building blocks by applying mechanical analogues of polymer elongation, cleavage and ligation, movement along a polymer, and control by molecular recognition unleashing allosteric conformational changes. Logically, the device is not more complicated than biomolecular machines of the living cell, and all its operations are part of the standard repertoire of these machines; hence, a biomolecular embodiment of the device is not infeasible. If implemented, such a biomolecular device may operate in vivo, interacting with its biochemical environment in a program-controlled manner. In particular, it may ‘compute’ synthetic biopolymers and release them into its environment in response to input from the environment, a capability that may have broad pharmaceutical and biological applications