Loan sales: another step in the evolution of the short-term credit market

Bank loans ; Asset-backed financing ; Credit

Persistent threats to validity in single‐group interrupted time series analysis with a cross over design

Rationale, aims and objectivesThe basic single‐group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) design has been shown to be susceptible to the most common threat to validity—history—the possibility that some other event caused the observed effect in the time series. A single‐group ITSA with a crossover design (in which the intervention is introduced and withdrawn 1 or more times) should be more robust. In this paper, we describe and empirically assess the susceptibility of this design to bias from history.MethodTime series data from 2 natural experiments (the effect of multiple repeals and reinstatements of Louisiana’s motorcycle helmet law on motorcycle fatalities and the association between the implementation and withdrawal of Gorbachev’s antialcohol campaign with Russia’s mortality crisis) are used to illustrate that history remains a threat to ITSA validity, even in a crossover design.ResultsBoth empirical examples reveal that the single‐group ITSA with a crossover design may be biased because of history. In the case of motorcycle fatalities, helmet laws appeared effective in reducing mortality (while repealing the law increased mortality), but when a control group was added, it was shown that this trend was similar in both groups. In the case of Gorbachev’s antialcohol campaign, only when contrasting the results against those of a control group was the withdrawal of the campaign found to be the more likely culprit in explaining the Russian mortality crisis than the collapse of the Soviet Union.ConclusionsEven with a robust crossover design, single‐group ITSA models remain susceptible to bias from history. Therefore, a comparable control group design should be included, whenever possible.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136538/1/jep12668.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136538/2/jep12668_am.pd

Recent patterns in downward income mobility: Sinking boats in a rising tide

This paper employs four measures of downward income mobility and 1984–1986 PSID data to examine the extent and possible causes of downward mobility. Despite modest economic growth during this period, a substantial number of Americans experienced downward income mobility, roughly 5% to 20%. The majority of the downwardly mobile initially lived with a nonelderly, Caucasian, male, less-educated, working household head. Logit analysis indicates that the following factors significantly increase the odds of downward income mobility: Male headship; minority headship; family dissolution; nest-leaving; and having a head who works in mining, construction, manufacturing, transportation, trade, or farming. The following factors significantly lower the odds of downward income mobility: Retaining the same household head; having a college-educated head; having a head who works in a professional, technical, or operative occupation; and having a head in the finance, insurance, and real estate industry.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43689/1/11205_2005_Article_BF01078211.pd