Stochastic Multi-class Traffic Assignment for Autonomous and Regular Vehicles in a Transportation Network

A transition period from regular vehicles (RVs) to autonomous vehicles (AVs) is imperative. This article explores both types of vehicles using a route choice model, formulated as a stochastic multi-class traffic assignment (SMTA) problem. In RVs, cross-nested logit (CNL) models are used since drivers do not have complete information and the unique characteristics of CNL. AVs, however, are considered to behave in a user equilibrium (UE) due to complete information about the network. The main innovation of this article includes the introduction of three solution methods for SMTA. Depending on the size of the network, each method can be used. These methods include solving the nonlinear complementary problem (NCP) with GAMS software, the decomposition-assignment algorithm, and the modified Wang's algorithm. Through the modification of Wang's algorithm, we have increased the convergence speed of Wang's algorithm and shown its numerical results for the Nguyen and Sioux Falls networks. As it is not possible to consider all paths in the traffic assignment, we proposed a creative path generation-assignment (PGA) algorithm. This algorithm generates several attractive paths for each origin-destination (OD), and the modified Wang's algorithm assigns traffic flow. Keywords: Autonomous Vehicles, Stochastic Multi-class Traffic Assignment, Cross-Nested Logit Mode

Subsystem Identification of Feedback and Feedforward Systems with Time Delay

We present an algorithm for identifying discrete-time feedback-and-feedforward subsystems with time delay that are interconnected in closed loop with a known subsystem. This frequency-domain algorithm uses only measured input and output data from a closed-loop discrete-time system, which is single input and single output. No internal signals are assumed to be measured. The orders of the unknown feedback and feedforward transfer functions are assumed to be known. We use a two-candidate-pool multi-convex-optimization approach to identify not only the feedback and feedforward transfer functions but also the feedback and feedforward time delay. The algorithm guarantees asymptotic stability of the identified closed-loop transfer function. The main analytic result shows that if the data noise is sufficiently small and the cardinality of the feedback-candidate-pool set is sufficiently large, then the identified feedforward and feedback delays are equal to the true delays, and the parameters of the identified feedforward and feedback transfer functions are arbitrarily close to the true parameters. This subsystem identification algorithm has application to modeling human-in-the-loop behavior. To demonstrate this application, we apply the new subsystem identification algorithm to data obtained from a human-in-the-loop control experiment in order to model the humans’ feedback and feedforward (with delay) control behavior

The burden of rheumatoid arthritis in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990–2019

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic systemic autoimmune disease. The present study reported the burden of RA in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study was used to report the modelled point prevalence, annual incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of RA, as counts and age-standardised rates with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). In 2019, RA had an age-standardised point prevalence of 120.6 per 100,000 population (107.0–135.7) and an annual incidence rate of 5.9 (5.2–6.6) in MENA, which have increased 28.3% and 25.2%, respectively, since 1990. In 2019, the number of DALYs due to RA in the region was 103.6 thousand (74.2–136.7), with an age-standardised rate of 19.0 (13.9–24.9) DALYs per 100,000 population, which has increased by 18.6% since 1990 (6.7–28.2). The highest point prevalence was found in females aged 50–54, and in males aged 45–49. The highest number of DALYs was observed in the 50–54 age group. The MENA DALY rate was lower than the global rate (19.0 vs. 39.6 per 100,000), but the rate was higher in all age groups in 2019, when compared with 1990. In addition, from 1990 to 2019 an increased burden from RA was associated with an increase in SDI. In line with global trends, the burden of RA in the MENA region showed a steady increase from 1990 to 2019. This highlights the increasing need for updating the available health data to design more accurate guidelines to enable the early detection and treatment of RA in the MENA countries

Antiphospholipid antibodies: Paradigm in transition

OBJECTIVES: This is a critical review of anti-phospholipid antibodies (aPL). Most prior reviews focus on the aPL syndrome (APS), a thrombotic condition often marked by neurological disturbance. We bring to attention recent evidence that aPL may be equally relevant to non-thrombotic autoimmune conditions, notably, multiple sclerosis and ITP. ORGANIZATION: After a brief history, the recent proliferation of aPL target antigens is reviewed. The implication is that many more exist. Theories of aPL in thrombosis are then reviewed, concluding that all have merit but that aPL may have more diverse pathological consequences than now recognized. Next, conflicting results are explained by methodological differences. The lupus anticoagulant (LA) is then discussed. LA is the best predictor of thrombosis, but why this is true is not settled. Finally, aPL in non-thrombotic disorders is reviewed. CONCLUSION: The current paradigm of aPL holds that they are important in thrombosis, but they may have much wider clinical significance, possibly of special interest in neurology

Auto Calibration and Optimization of Large-Scale Water Resources Systems

Water resource systems modelling have constantly been a challenge through history for human being. As the innovative methodological development is evolving alongside computer sciences on one hand, researches are likely to confront more complex and larger water resources systems due to new challenges regarding increased water demands, climate change and human interventions, socio-economic concerns, and environment protection and sustainability. In this research, an automatic calibration scheme has been applied on the Gilan's large-scale water resource model using mathematical programming. The water resource model's calibration is developed in order to attune unknown water return flows from demand sites in the complex Sefidroud irrigation network and other related areas. The calibration procedure is validated by comparing several gauged river outflows from the system in the past with model results. The calibration results are pleasantly reasonable presenting a rational insight of the system. Subsequently, the unknown optimized parameters were used in a basin-scale linear optimization model with the ability to evaluate the system's performance against a reduced inflow scenario in future. Results showed an acceptable match between predicted and observed outflows from the system at selected hydrometric stations. Moreover, an efficient operating policy was determined for Sefidroud dam leading to a minimum water shortage in the reduced inflow scenario

Higher Adherence to the Mediterranean Dietary Pattern Is Inversely Associated With Severity of COVID-19 and Related Symptoms: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background and AimsAdherence to the Mediterranean diet (MD) has been associated with a decreased risk of developing a variety of chronic diseases that are comorbidities in COVID-19 patients. However, its association to the severity and symptoms of COVID-19 are still unknown. This study aimed to examine the association between adherence to the MD pattern and COVID-19 severity and symptoms in Iranian hospitalized patients.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, 250 COVID-19 patients aged 18 to 65 were examined. We employed a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to obtain data on dietary intake of participants in the year prior to their COVID-19 diagnosis. COVID-19 severity was determined using the National Institutes of Health's Coronavirus Disease 2019 report. Additionally, symptoms associated with COVID-19, inflammatory markers, and other variables were evaluated. The scoring method proposed by Trichopoulou et al. was used to assess adherence to the MD.ResultsThe participants' mean age was 44.1 ± 12.1 years, and 46% of them had severe COVID-19. Patients who adhered more closely to the MD had lower serum C-reactive protein levels (7.80 vs. 37.36 mg/l) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (14.08 vs. 42.65 mm/h). Those with the highest MD score were 77% less likely to have severe COVID-19 after controlling for confounding variables. The MD score was also found to be inversely associated with COVID-19 symptoms, including dyspnea, cough, fever, chills, weakness, myalgia, nausea and vomiting, and sore throat.ConclusionHigher adherence to the MD was associated with a decreased likelihood of COVID-19 severity and symptoms, as well as a shorter duration of hospitalization and convalescence, and inflammatory biomarkers

Estimating the incidence of lung cancer attributable to occupational exposure in Iran

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>The aim of this study was to estimate the fraction of lung cancer incidence in Iran attributed to occupational exposures to the well-established lung cancer carcinogens, including silica, cadmium, nickel, arsenic, chromium, diesel fumes, beryllium, and asbestos.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Nationwide exposure to each of the mentioned carcinogens was estimated using workforce data from the Iranian population census of 1995, available from the International Labor Organization (ILO) website. The prevalence of exposure to carcinogens in each industry was estimated using exposure data from the CAREX (CARcinogen EXposure) database, an international occupational carcinogen information system kept and maintained by the European Union. The magnitude of the relative risk of lung cancer for each carcinogen was estimated from local and international literature. Using the Levin modified population attributable risk (incidence) fraction, lung cancer incidence (as estimated by the Tehran Population-Based Cancer Registry) attributable to workplace exposure to carcinogens was estimated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The total workforce in Iran according to the 1995 census identified 12,488,020 men and 677,469 women. Agriculture is the largest sector with 25% of the male and 0.27% of female workforce. After applying the CAREX exposure estimate to each sector, the proportion exposed to lung carcinogens was 0.08% for male workers and 0.02% for female workers. Estimating a relative risk of 1.9 (95% CI of 1.7–2.1) for high exposure and 1.3 (95% CI 1.2–1.4) for low exposure, and employing the Levin modified formula, the fraction of lung cancer attributed to carcinogens in the workplace was 1.5% (95% CI of 1.2–1.9) for females and 12% (95% CI of 10–15) for males. These fractions correspond to an estimated incidence of 1.3 and 0.08 cases of lung cancer per 100,000 population for males and females, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The incidence of lung cancer due to occupational exposure is low in Iran and, as in other countries, more lung cancer is due to occupational exposure among males than females.</p

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Trends in future health financing and coverage: future health spending and universal health coverage in 188 countries, 2016–40

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040. Methods: We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country's UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios. Findings: In the reference scenario, global health spending was projected to increase from US$10 trillion (95$20 trillion (18 trillion to 22 trillion) in 2040. Per capita health spending was projected to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 4·2% (3·4–5·1) per year, followed by lower-middle-income countries (4·0%, 3·6–4·5) and low-income countries (2·2%, 1·7–2·8). Despite global growth, per capita health spending was projected to range from only $40 (24–65) to$413 (263–668) in 2040 in low-income countries, and from $140 (90–200) to$1699 (711–3423) in lower-middle-income countries. Globally, the share of health spending covered by pooled resources would range widely, from 19·8% (10·3–38·6) in Nigeria to 97·9% (96·4–98·5) in Seychelles. Historical performance on the UHC index was significantly associated with pooled resources per capita. Across the alternative scenarios, we estimate UHC reaching between 5·1 billion (4·9 billion to 5·3 billion) and 5·6 billion (5·3 billion to 5·8 billion) lives in 2030. Interpretation: We chart future scenarios for health spending and its relationship with UHC. Ensuring that all countries have sustainable pooled health resources is crucial to the achievement of UHC. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation