A markup model of inflation for the euro area

Equilibrium correction models of the price level are often used to model inflation. Such models assume that the long-run markup of prices over costs is fixed, but this may not be true for the Euro area economy, which has undergone major structural reforms over the last 25 years. We allow for shifts in the markup factor through estimating an equation that includes a timevarying intercept. The model fits the data better than a linear alternative, and suggests that a reduction in the price-cost markup contributed to disinflation in the Euro area during the 1980s. JEL Classification: C22,C32,E31cointegration, dynamic modelling, inflation, price-cost markup, time-varying intercept

Testing for a time-varying price-cost markup in the Euro area inflation process

Empirical models of inflation often incorporate equilibrium correction effects based upon levels of prices and input costs. Such models assume that the steady-state price-cost markup is constant, but recent research suggests that this may not be true for the Euro area economy, which has undergone major structural reforms over the last 25 years. We allow for permanent shifts in the markup factor through estimating an inflation equation that includes a time-varying intercept. The model suggests that a reduction in the markup contributed to disinflation in the Euro area during the period 1981-2000.inflation;price-cost markup;cointegration;time-varying intercept;dynamic modelling.

Ordering monomial factors of polynomials in the product representation

The numerical construction of polynomials in the product representation (as used for instance in variants of the multiboson technique) can become problematic if rounding errors induce an imprecise or even unstable evaluation of the polynomial. We give criteria to quantify the effects of these rounding errors on the computation of polynomials approximating the function $1/s$. We consider polynomials both in a real variable $s$ and in a Hermitian matrix. By investigating several ordering schemes for the monomials of these polynomials, we finally demonstrate that there exist orderings of the monomials that keep rounding errors at a tolerable level.Comment: Latex2e file, 7 figures, 32 page

Wafer scale nano-membranes supported on a silicon microsieve

A new micromachining method to fabricate wafer scale, atomically smooth nano-membranes is described. The delicate membrane is supported on a robust silicon microsieve fabricated by plasma etching. The supporting sieve is micromachined independently of the nano-membrane, which is later fusion bonded to it. The transferred thin-film membrane can be dense, porous or perforated according to the application desired. One of the main application areas for such membranes is in fluidics, where the small thickness and high strength of the supported nano-membranes is a big advantage. The novel method described enables to easily up-scale and interface micro or nano-membranes to the macro-worl

The Empirical (ir)Relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

We give an appraisal of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) as an empirical model of European inflation. We show that existing evidence reported in favour of the NPC on Euro-area and country data is due to a corroborative research strategy. In particular, goodness-of-fit is a weak criterion, since the NPC-fit is well approximated by a random walk. Instead we report the outcome of more critical tests, and the importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized.Finally, encompassing tests are applied to open economy versions of the NPC for UK and Norway.New Keynesian Phillips curves; Euro inflation; UK inflation; Norwegian inflation; Monetary policy; Dynamic stability conditions; Evaluation; Encompassing tests

3D-melting features of the irreversibility line in overdoped Bi2_2Sr2_2CuO6_6 at ultra-low temperature and high magnetic field

We have measured the irreversible magnetization of an overdoped Bi$_2$Sr$_2$CuO$_6$ single crystal up to B=28 T and down to T=60 mK, and extracted the irreversibility line $B_{\rm irr}(T)$: the data can be interpreted in the whole temperature range as a 3D-anisotropic vortex lattice melting line with Lindemann number $c_{\rm L}=0.13$. We also briefly discuss the applicability of alternative models such as 2D- and quantum melting, and the connection with magnetoresistance experiments.Comment: M2S-HTSC-VI Conference paper (2 pages, 1 figure), using Elsevier style espcrc2.st

The empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve.

The dynamic properties of the The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) is analysed within the framework of a small system of linear difference equations. We evaluate the empirical results of existing studies which uses `Euroland' and US data. The debate has been centered around the goodness-of-fit, but this is a weak criterion since the NPC-fit is typically well approximated by purely statistical models (e.g., a random walk). Several other parametric tests are then considered, and the importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized. We also highlight the role of existing studies in providing new information relative to that which underlies the typical NPC. This encompassing approach is applied to open economy versions of the NPC for UK and NorwayNew Keynesian Phillips curves, US inflation, Euro inflation, UK inflation, Norwegian inflation, Monetary policy, Dynamic stability conditions, Evaluation, Encompassing tests.

Econometric Inflation Targeting

Inflation targeting requires inflation forecasts, yet most models in the literature are either theoretical or calibrated. The motivation for this paper is therefore threefold: We seek to test and implement an econometric model forforecasting inflation in Norway–one economy recently opting for formal inflation targeting rather than a managed nominal exchange rate. We also seek to quantify the relative importance of the di?erent transmission mechanisms– with basis in empirical estimates rather than calibrated values. Finally, we want to focus on and exploit econometric issues required in the design and estimation of econometric models used for inflation forecasting and policy analysis.inflation targeting; monetary policy; wages and prices; cointegration; dynamic modelling