Attributing synergies and trade-offs in water resources planning and management in the Volta River basin under climate change

To feed the growing population, achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, and fulfil the commitments of the Paris Agreement, West African countries need to invest in agricultural development and renewable energy, among other sectors. Irrigated agriculture, feeding millions of people, and hydropower, generating clean electricity, depend on water availability and compete for the resource. In the Volta basin, the planned 105 000 ha of irrigated land in Burkina Faso and Ghana could feed hundreds of thousands of people. However, irrigation in the dry season depends on upstream dams that change the river’s flow regime from intermittent to permanent, and at the same time irrigation water is no longer available for hydropower generation. Using an integrated eco-hydrological and water management model, we investigated the water demand and supply of three planned irrigation projects and the impacts of the planned Pwalugu multi-purpose dam on the hydropower potentials and water availability in the entire Volta basin. We found that future irrigation withdrawals would reduce the hydropower potential in the Volta basin by 79 GWh a−1 and the operation of Pwalugu by another 86 GWh a−1. Hence, Pwalugu contributes only about 101 GWh a−1 of its potential of 187 GWh a−1. Under climate change simulations, using an ensemble of eight bias-adjusted and downscaled GCMs, irrigation demand surprisingly did not increase. The higher evaporation losses due to higher temperatures were compensated by increasing precipitation while favouring hydropower generation. However, water availability at the irrigation site in Burkina Faso is clearly at its limit, while capacity in Ghana is not yet exhausted. Due to hydro-climatic differences in the Volta basin, the cost of irrigating one hectare of land in terms of lost hydropower potential follows a north-south gradient from the hot and dry north to the humid south. Nevertheless, food production should have priority over hydropower, which can be compensated by other renewables energies

Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

Open Access JournalThe small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region

One simulation, different conclusions—the baseline period makes the difference!

The choice of the baseline period, intentionally chosen or not, as a reference for assessing future changes of any projected variable can play an important role for the resulting statement. In regional climate impact studies, well-established or arbitrarily chosen baselines are often used without being questioned. Here we investigated the effects of different baseline periods on the interpretation of discharge simulations from eight river basins in the period 1960–2099. The simulations were forced by four bias-adjusted and downscaled Global Climate Modelsunder two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). To systematically evaluate how far the choice of different baselines impacts the simulation results, we developed a similarity index that compares two time series of projected changes. The results show that 25% of the analyzed simulations are sensitive to the choice of the baseline period under RCP 2.6 and 32% under RCP 8.5. In extreme cases, change signals of two time series show opposite trends. This has serious consequences for key messages drawn from a basin-scale climate impact study. To address this problem, an algorithm was developed to identify flexible baseline periods for each simulation individually, which better represent the statistical properties of a given historical period

Low-cost adaptation options to support green growth in agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones

The regional climate as it is now and in the future will put pressure on investments in sub-Saharan Africa in water resource management, fisheries, and other crop and livestock production systems. Changes in oceanic characteristics across the Atlantic Ocean will result in remarkable vulnerability of coastal ecology, littorals, and mangroves in the middle of the twenty-first century and beyond. In line with the countries' objectives of creating a green economy that allows reduced greenhouse gas emissions, improved resource efficiency, and prevention of biodiversity loss, we identify the most pressing needs for adaptation and the best adaptation choices that are also clean and affordable. According to empirical data from the field and customized model simulation designs, the cost of these adaptation measures will likely decrease and benefit sustainable green growth in agriculture, water resource management, and coastal ecosystems, as hydroclimatic hazards such as pluviometric and thermal extremes become more common in West Africa. Most of these adaptation options are local and need to be scaled up and operationalized for sustainable development. Governmental sovereign wealth funds, investments from the private sector, and funding from global climate funds can be used to operationalize these adaptation measures. Effective legislation, knowledge transfer, and pertinent collaborations are necessary for their success

Low-cost adaptation options to support green growth in agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones

The regional climate as it is now and in the future will put pressure on investments in sub-Saharan Africa in water resource management, fisheries, and other crop and livestock production systems. Changes in oceanic characteristics across the Atlantic Ocean will result in remarkable vulnerability of coastal ecology, littorals, and mangroves in the middle of the twenty-first century and beyond. In line with the countries' objectives of creating a green economy that allows reduced greenhouse gas emissions, improved resource efficiency, and prevention of biodiversity loss, we identify the most pressing needs for adaptation and the best adaptation choices that are also clean and affordable. According to empirical data from the field and customized model simulation designs, the cost of these adaptation measures will likely decrease and benefit sustainable green growth in agriculture, water resource management, and coastal ecosystems, as hydroclimatic hazards such as pluviometric and thermal extremes become more common in West Africa. Most of these adaptation options are local and need to be scaled up and operationalized for sustainable development. Governmental sovereign wealth funds, investments from the private sector, and funding from global climate funds can be used to operationalize these adaptation measures. Effective legislation, knowledge transfer, and pertinent collaborations are necessary for their success

Effects of customized climate services on land and labor productivity in Burkina Faso and Ghana

Climate services favor adopting strategies to increase agricultural productivity, enhance sustainable development, and adapt to unavoidable climate variability and change. However, for climates services to be effective, they must be accessible and suitable to user needs. This study investigated the effects of customized climate services (CCS) on land and labor productivity. Portraying the case of CCS delivered in the districts of Bolgatanga (Northern Ghana), Dano and Ouahigouya (western and northern Burkina Faso) in West Africa, it used: i) historical panel data of daily rainfall, yields, agricultural input, and output prices; ii) cost statements of farm operations and iii) other survey data from beneficiaries of on-farm demonstrations (pilot sites). Different results were found across farmers on the demonstrator sites, with Dano and Bolgatanga recording the best land and labor productivity. Strong and positive effects were observed in Dano, where land productivity increased by 200% and labor productivity doubled despite consecutive pluviometric extremes such as heavy rain events and prolonged dry spells in the 2017 and 2018 cropping seasons. Further investigation showed that CCS was particularly favorable to land and labor productivity of farmers who were committed to the advisory given by the CCS providers. Therefore, as perishable goods, the success of CCS applications would require thorough coproduction, delivery, and monitoring for their effectiveness in improving land and labor productivity for agriculture in semi-arid regions of West Africa

The WASCAL hydrometeorological observatory in the Sudan Savanna of Burkina Faso and Ghana

Watersheds with rich hydrometeorological equipment are still very limited in West Africa but are essential for an improved analysis of environmental changes and their impacts in this region. This study gives an overview of a novel hydrometeorological observatory that was established for two mesoscale watersheds in the Sudan Savanna of Southern Burkina Faso and Northern Ghana as part of the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) program. The study area is characterized by severe land cover changes due to a strongly increasing demand of agricultural land. The observatory is designed for long-term measurements of >30 hydrometeorological variables in subhourly resolution and further variables such as CO2. This information is complemented by long-term daily measurements from national meteorological and hydrological networks, among several other datasets recently established for this region. A unique component of the observatory is a micrometeorological field experiment using eddy covariance stations implemented at three contrasting sites (near-natural, cropland, and degraded grassland) to assess the impact of land cover changes on water, energy, and CO2 fluxes. The datasets of the observatory are needed by many modeling and field studies conducted in this region and are made available via the WASCAL database. Moreover, the observatory forms an excellent platform for future investigations and can be used as observational foundation for environmental observatories for an improved assessment of environmental changes and their socioeconomic impacts for the savanna regions of West Africa

Rain-based factors of high agricultural impacts over Senegal. Part I: integration of local to sub-regional trends and variability

The evolution of seasonal cycle and interannual rainfall, the number of rainy days and daily rainfall types, dry spells frequency of occurrence, onset/cessation/length of rainy season, sowing dates, and the duration of the cropping period, are investigated at local (individual sites) and sub-regional scales (four different rainfall zones) using daily records of station data (83 sites) over Senegal. In the limits of a case study, these analyses complement and update previous studies conducted in the extreme Western Sahel (11–16° N and 20° W–10° E). The results unveil noticeable evolution of some of these rain-based factors in the recent periods as compared to the previous dry years. In the regions recording less than 800 mm/year (Sudan and Sahel sub-regions), the positive and statistically significant trends of rainfall amount are associated with new features of increasing frequency of short dry spell category, increasing number of some classes of extreme daily rainfall amounts and shifts in the peak number of rainy days. At sub-regional scales, the starting years (or change points) the magnitude and the signs of the new trends are unevenly distributed in the period post-1990. Earlier and higher amplitude changes are found at local scales and not less than one third of the sites in each sub-regional network are significantly affected. The extreme Southern sub-region exhibits no significant changes. Statistically significant trends are not observed on daily rain records ≤10 mm, onset/cessation dates, successful sowing dates, rainy season length, cropping period, medium and extreme dry spell categories. Rather, some of these factors such as the successful sowing date and the cropping season length exhibit significant variability. The onset (cessation) dates of the rainy season are followed (preceded) by extreme dry spell episodes. In the perspectives of climate impact assessments on the local agriculture a sub-regional periodic synopsis of the major rain-based factors of interest to agricultural applications are provided at the end the paper. They document some important internal variability patterns to reckon with in a multi-decadal work over the 1950–2008 period for this region

Risques climatiques et agriculture en Afrique de l'Ouest

Le futur de l'Afrique de l'Ouest dépend de la capacité du secteur de l'agriculture à s'adapter pour garantir la sécurité alimentaire dans un contexte de changement climatique et de croissance démographique. Pour faciliter cette adaptation, la recherche a déployé d'importants efforts pour améliorer les connaissances sur les mécanismes climatiques et leurs impacts sur les systèmes agropastoraux. Or, ces avancées issues de la recherche ne sont que rarement prises en compte dans la planification et la prise de décision. Partant de ce constat, un projet de recherche " Agriculture et gestion des risques climatiques : outils et recherches en Afrique ", soutenu par le ministère français des Affaires étrangères et du Développement international est mené entre 2016 et 2018 dans plusieurs pays d'Afrique de l'Ouest. Il a pour objectif d'élaborer des outils efficaces de gestion du risque climatique pour les agriculteurs, en co-construisant avec des réseaux de chercheurs et d'acteurs directement impliqués dans l'accompagnement de l'agriculture des stratégies innovantes basées sur les résultats de la recherche. Cet ouvrage restitue les principales avancées de cette recherche-action sur trois thématiques prioritaires : les services climatiques pour l'agriculture, la gestion des ressources en eau et l'intensification écologique. Il permet aux acteurs du secteur agricole (organisations paysannes, filières, secteur privé agricole, banques de développement agricole, fournisseurs d'intrants, services agricoles et de météorologie) de s'approprier de nouvelles connaissances et de nouveaux outils pour une meilleure prise en compte des risques climatiques dans la gestion des systèmes de production