Use of epidemiologic risk modeling to evaluate control of foot-and-mouth disease in southern Thailand

Objective—To assess the impacts of the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and various FMD control programs in southern Thailand. Animals—A native population of 562,910 cattle and 33,088 buffalo as well as 89,294 animals legally transported into southern Thailand. Procedures—A quantitative risk assessment was used to ascertain the probability of FMD introduction, and an intrinsic dynamic model was used to assess impacts. Value for the transmission rate (β) was estimated. Five scenarios created to assess the impacts of nonstructural protein (NSP) testing, mass vaccination, and culling were examined. Impacts were assessed through an examination of the estimated annual cumulative incidence (ACI) of FMD. The ACIs of various scenarios were compared by use of the Tukey Studentized range technique. Results—β was estimated at 0.115. Approximately 35,000 cases of FMD would be expected from the baseline situation. A 30% reduction of ACI was detected with the introduction of NSP antibody testing. Prophylactic vaccination resulted in an 85% reduction of ACI. Concurrent use of NSP antibody testing and vaccination reduced the ACI by 96%, and the addition of an eradication policy resulted in a slightly greater decrease in the ACI (98%). Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—The study used epidemiologic models to investigate FMD control interventions. Results suggested that vaccination has more impact than the use of NSP testing. Use of the NSP test reduced ACI during peak seasons, whereas vaccination diminished the underlying incidence. The best mitigation plan was an integrated and strategic use of multiple control techniques