288 research outputs found

    The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

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    This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least partly explained as a compensation for taking crash-risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A Hidden Markov Model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of stability or periods of instability. The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune. JEL classifications: C24, F31, F32; Key words: Exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, foreign exchange risk discount, hidden-Markov model, carry-trad

    Updating Inflation Expectations

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    This paper investigates how inflation expectations evolve. In particular, we analyze the time-varying nature of the propensity to update expectations and its potential determinants. For this purpose we set up a flexible econometric model that tracks the formation of inflation expectations of consumers at each moment in time. We show that the propensity to update inflation expectations changes substantially over time and is related to the quantity and the quality of news

    Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions

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    In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic indicators, and financial data. Almost all indicators are found to improve short-run growth forecasts whereas the results for four-quarter-ahead growth forecasts and the prediction of recession probabilities in general are mixed. We can confirm the result that an indicator suited to improve growth forecasts does not necessarily help to produce more accurate recession forecasts. Only composite leading indicators perform generally well in both forecasting exercises

    Rare Variants in Ischemic Stroke: An Exome Pilot Study

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    The genetic architecture of ischemic stroke is complex and is likely to include rare or low frequency variants with high penetrance and large effect sizes. Such variants are likely to provide important insights into disease pathogenesis compared to common variants with small effect sizes. Because a significant portion of human functional variation may derive from the protein-coding portion of genes we undertook a pilot study to identify variation across the human exome (i.e., the coding exons across the entire human genome) in 10 ischemic stroke cases. Our efforts focused on evaluating the feasibility and identifying the difficulties in this type of research as it applies to ischemic stroke. The cases included 8 African-Americans and 2 Caucasians selected on the basis of similar stroke subtypes and by implementing a case selection algorithm that emphasized the genetic contribution of stroke risk. Following construction of paired-end sequencing libraries, all predicted human exons in each sample were captured and sequenced. Sequencing generated an average of 25.5 million read pairs (75 bp×2) and 3.8 Gbp per sample. After passing quality filters, screening the exomes against dbSNP demonstrated an average of 2839 novel SNPs among African-Americans and 1105 among Caucasians. In an aggregate analysis, 48 genes were identified to have at least one rare variant across all stroke cases. One gene, CSN3, identified by screening our prior GWAS results in conjunction with our exome results, was found to contain an interesting coding polymorphism as well as containing excess rare variation as compared with the other genes evaluated. In conclusion, while rare coding variants may predispose to the risk of ischemic stroke, this fact has yet to be definitively proven. Our study demonstrates the complexities of such research and highlights that while exome data can be obtained, the optimal analytical methods have yet to be determined

    Trabecular Meshwork Gene Expression after Selective Laser Trabeculoplasty

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    BACKGROUND: Trabecular meshwork and Schlemm's canal are the tissues appointed to modulate the aqueous humour outflow from the anterior chamber. The impairment of their functions drives to an intraocular pressure increase. The selective laser trabeculoplasty is a laser therapy of the trabecular meshwork able to decrease intraocular pressure. The exact response mechanism to this treatment has not been clearly delineated yet. The herein presented study is aimed at studying the gene expression changes induced in trabecular meshwork cells by selective laser trabeculoplasty (SLT) in order to better understand the mechanisms subtending its efficacy. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Primary human trabecular meshwork cells cultured in fibroblast medium underwent selective laser trabeculoplasty treatment. RNA was extracted from a pool of cells 30 minutes after treatment while the remaining cells were further cultured and RNA was extracted respectively 2 and 6 hours after treatment. Control cells stored in incubator in absence of SLT treatment were used as reference samples. Gene expression was evaluated by hybridization on miRNA-microarray and laser scanner analysis. Scanning electron microscopic examination was performed on 2 Trabecular meshwork samples after SLT at 4(th) and 6(th) hour from treatment. On the whole, selective laser trabeculoplasty modulates in trabecular meshwork the expression of genes involved in cell motility, intercellular connections, extracellular matrix production, protein repair, DNA repair, membrane repair, reactive oxygen species production, glutamate toxicity, antioxidant activities, and inflammation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: SLT did not induce any phenotypic alteration in TM samples. TM is a complex tissue possessing a great variety of function pivotal for the active regulation of aqueous humour outflow from the anterior chamber. SLT is able to modulate these functions at the postgenomic molecular level without inducing damage either at molecular or phenotypic levels

    Genome-wide association analyses of physical activity and sedentary behavior provide insights into underlying mechanisms and roles in disease prevention

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    Although physical activity and sedentary behavior are moderately heritable, little is known about the mechanisms that influence these traits. Combining data for up to 703,901 individuals from 51 studies in a multi-ancestry meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies yields 99 loci that associate with self-reported moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity during leisure time (MVPA), leisure screen time (LST) and/or sedentary behavior at work. Loci associated with LST are enriched for genes whose expression in skeletal muscle is altered by resistance training. A missense variant in ACTN3 makes the alpha-actinin-3 filaments more flexible, resulting in lower maximal force in isolated type IIA muscle fibers, and possibly protection from exercise-induced muscle damage. Finally, Mendelian randomization analyses show that beneficial effects of lower LST and higher MVPA on several risk factors and diseases are mediated or confounded by body mass index (BMI). Our results provide insights into physical activity mechanisms and its role in disease prevention. Multi-ancestry meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies for self-reported physical activity during leisure time, leisure screen time, sedentary commuting and sedentary behavior at work identify 99 loci associated with at least one of these traits
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