Mathematical Modeling for Removing Border Entry and Quarantine Requirements for COVID-19, Vanuatu

The Pacific Island country of Vanuatu is considering strategies to remove border restrictions implemented during 2020 to prevent imported coronavirus disease. We performed mathematical modeling to estimate the number of infectious travelers who had different entry scenarios and testing strategies. Travel bubbles and testing on entry have the greatest importation risk reduction

The SNPMaP package for R: a framework for genome-wide association using DNA pooling on microarrays

Summary: Large-scale genome-wide association (GWA) studies using thousands of high-density SNP microarrays are becoming an essential tool in the search for loci related to heritable variation in many phenotypes. However, the cost of GWA remains beyond the reach of many researchers. Fortunately, the majority of statistical power can still be obtained by estimating allele frequencies from DNA pools, reducing the cost to that of tens, rather than thousands of arrays. We present a set of software tools for processing SNPMaP (SNP microarrays and pooling) data from CEL files to Relative Allele Scores in the rich R statistical computing environment

Injecting drug use and hepatitis C virus infection independently increase biomarkers of inflammatory disease risk which are incompletely restored by curative direct-acting antiviral therapy

BackgroundHepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are more prevalent in people who inject drugs (PWID) who often experience additional health risks. HCV induces inflammation and immune alterations that contribute to hepatic and non-hepatic morbidities. It remains unclear whether curative direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapy completely reverses immune alterations in PWID.MethodsPlasma biomarkers of immune activation associated with chronic disease risk were measured in HCV-seronegative (n=24) and HCV RNA+ (n=32) PWID at baseline and longitudinally after DAA therapy. Adjusted generalised estimating equations were used to assess longitudinal changes in biomarker levels. Comparisons between community controls (n=29) and HCV-seronegative PWID were made using adjusted multiple regression modelling.ResultsHCV-seronegative PWID exhibited significantly increased levels of inflammatory biomarkers including soluble (s) TNF-RII, IL-6, sCD14 and sCD163 and the diabetes index HbA1c as compared to community controls. CXCL10, sTNF-RII, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 and lipopolysaccharide binding protein (LBP) were additionally elevated in PWID with viremic HCV infection as compared to HCV- PWID. Whilst curative DAA therapy reversed some biomarkers, others including LBP and sTNF-RII remained elevated 48 weeks after HCV cure.ConclusionElevated levels of inflammatory and chronic disease biomarkers in PWID suggest an increased risk of chronic morbidities such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease. HCV infection in PWID poses an additional disease burden, amplified by the incomplete reversal of immune dysfunction following DAA therapy. These findings highlight the need for heightened clinical surveillance of PWID for chronic inflammatory diseases, particularly those with a history of HCV infection

Incarceration history and risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus acquisition among people who inject drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background People who inject drugs (PWID) experience a high prevalence of incarceration and might be at high risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection during or after incarceration. We aimed to assess whether incarceration history elevates HIV or HCV acquisition risk among PWID. Methods In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO databases for studies in any language published from Jan 1, 2000 until June 13, 2017 assessing HIV or HCV incidence among PWID. We included studies that measured HIV or HCV incidence among community-recruited PWID. We included only studies reporting original results and excluded studies that evaluated incident infections by self-report. We contacted authors of cohort studies that met the inclusion or exclusion criteria, but that did not report on the outcomes of interest, to request data. We extracted and pooled data from the included studies using random-effects meta-analyses to quantify the associations between recent (past 3, 6, or 12 months or since last follow-up) or past incarceration and HIV or HCV acquisition (primary infection or reinfection) risk among PWID. We assessed the risk of bias of included studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Between-study heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistic and the P-value for heterogeneity. Findings We included published results from 20 studies and unpublished results from 21 studies. These studies originated from Australasia, western and eastern Europe, North and Latin America, and east and southeast Asia. Recent incarceration was associated with an 81% (relative risk [RR] 1·81, 95% CI 1·40–2·34) increase in HIV acquisition risk, with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I2=63·5%; p=0·001), and a 62% (RR 1·62, 95% CI 1·28–2·05) increase in HCV acquisition risk, also with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I2=57·3%; p=0·002). Past incarceration was associated with a 25% increase in HIV (RR 1·25, 95% CI 0·94–1·65) and a 21% increase in HCV (1·21, 1·02–1·43) acquisition risk. Interpretation Incarceration is associated with substantial short-term increases in HIV and HCV acquisition risk among PWID and could be a significant driver of HCV and HIV transmission among PWID. These findings support the need for developing novel interventions to minimise the risk of HCV and HIV acquisition, including addressing structural risks associated with drug laws and excessive incarceration of PWID

Risk factor analysis and spatiotemporal CART model of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Background: It remains unclear whether it is possible to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic prediction model for cryptosporidiosis disease. This paper examined the impact of social economic and weather factors on cryptosporidiosis and explored the possibility of developing such a model using social economic and weather data in Queensland, Australia.Methods: Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and social economic factors in Queensland were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Three-stage spatiotemporal classification and regression tree (CART) models were developed to examine the association between social economic and weather factors and monthly incidence of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. The spatiotemporal CART model was used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia.Results: The results of the classification tree model (with incidence rates defined as binary presence/absence) showed that there was an 87% chance of an occurrence of cryptosporidiosis in a local government area (LGA) if the socio-economic index for the area (SEIFA) exceeded 1021, while the results of regression tree model (based on non-zero incidence rates) show when SEIFA was between 892 and 945, and temperature exceeded 32°C, the relative risk (RR) of cryptosporidiosis was 3.9 (mean morbidity: 390.6/100,000, standard deviation (SD): 310.5), compared to monthly average incidence of cryptosporidiosis. When SEIFA was less than 892 the RR of cryptosporidiosis was 4.3 (mean morbidity: 426.8/100,000, SD: 319.2). A prediction map for the cryptosporidiosis outbreak was made according to the outputs of spatiotemporal CART models.Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that spatiotemporal CART models based on social economic and weather variables can be used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Validation of pooled genotyping on the Affymetrix 500 k and SNP6.0 genotyping platforms using the polynomial-based probe-specific correction

10.1186/1471-2156-10-82BMC Genetics10-BGME

Conservation of Distinct Genetically-Mediated Human Cortical Pattern

The many subcomponents of the human cortex are known to follow an anatomical pattern and functional relationship that appears to be highly conserved between individuals. This suggests that this pattern and the relationship among cortical regions are important for cortical function and likely shaped by genetic factors, although the degree to which genetic factors contribute to this pattern is unknown. We assessed the genetic relationships among 12 cortical surface areas using brain images and genotype information on 2,364 unrelated individuals, brain images on 466 twin pairs, and transcriptome data on 6 postmortem brains in order to determine whether a consistent and biologically meaningful pattern could be identified from these very different data sets. We find that the patterns revealed by each data set are highly consistent (p<10−3), and are biologically meaningful on several fronts. For example, close genetic relationships are seen in cortical regions within the same lobes and, the frontal lobe, a region showing great evolutionary expansion and functional complexity, has the most distant genetic relationship with other lobes. The frontal lobe also exhibits the most distinct expression pattern relative to the other regions, implicating a number of genes with known functions mediating immune and related processes. Our analyses reflect one of the first attempts to provide an assessment of the biological consistency of a genetic phenomenon involving the brain that leverages very different types of data, and therefore is not just statistical replication which purposefully use very similar data sets.publishedVersio

Staying hepatitis C negative: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cure and reinfection in people who inject drugs

To access publisher's full text version of this article click on the hyperlink belowBACKGROUND AND AIMS: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are highly effective in treating hepatitis C. However, there is concern that cure rates may be lower, and reinfection rates higher, among people who inject drugs. We conducted a systematic review of treatment outcomes achieved with DAAs in people who inject drugs (PWID). METHODS: A search strategy was used to identify studies that reported sustained viral response (SVR), treatment discontinuation, adherence or reinfection in recent PWID and/or opioid substitution therapy (OST) recipients. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Meta-analysis of proportions was used to estimate pooled SVR and treatment discontinuation rates. The pooled relative risk of achieving SVR and pooled reinfection rate were calculated using generalized mixed effects linear models. RESULTS: The search identified 8075 references; 26 were eligible for inclusion. The pooled SVR for recent PWID was 88% (95% CI, 83%-92%) and 91% (95% CI 88%-95%) for OST recipients. The relative risk of achieving SVR for recent PWID compared to non-recent PWID was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.94-1.06). The pooled treatment discontinuation was 2% (95% CI, 1%-4%) for both recent PWID and OST recipients. Amongst recent PWID, the pooled incidence of reinfection was 1.94 per 100 person years (95% CI, 0.87-4.32). In OST recipients, the incidence of reinfection was 0.55 per 100 person years (95% CI, 0.17-1.76). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment outcomes were similar in recent PWID compared to non-PWID treated with DAAs. People who report recent injecting or OST recipients should not be excluded from hepatitis C treatment.National Health and Medical Research Council of Australi

Community-based provision of direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C: Study protocol and challenges of a randomized controlled trial

Background: To achieve the World Health Organization hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination targets, it is essential to increase access to treatment. Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment can be provided in primary healthcare services (PHCS), improving accessibility, and, potentially, retention in care. Here, we describe our protocol for assessing the effectiveness of providing DAAs in PHCS, and the impact on the HCV care cascade. In addition, we reflect on the challenges of conducting a model of care study during a period of unprecedented change in HCV care and treatment. Methods: Consenting patients with HCV infection attending 13 PHCS in Australia or New Zealand are randomized to receive DAA treatment at the local tertiary institution (standard care arm), or their PHCS (intervention arm). The primary endpoint is the proportion commenced on DAAs and cured. Treatment providers at the PHCS include: hepatology nurses, primary care practitioners, or, in two sites, a specialist physician. All PHCS offer opioid substitution therapy. Discussion: The Prime Study is the first real-world, randomized, model of care study exploring the impact of community provision of DAA therapy on HCV-treatment uptake and cure. Although the study has faced challenges unique to this period of time characterized by changing treatment and service delivery, the data gained will be of critical importance in shaping health service policy that enables the elimination of HCV