Local Consequences of Global Uncertainty: Capacity Development and LNG Trade Under Shale Gas and Demand Uncertainty and Disruption Risk

Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. Here, we investigate investment behavior and trade in an imperfect market structure under uncertainty in both supply and demand. We focus on three uncertain events: i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries that may lead to higher or lower natural gas demand after 2025; and iii) availability of shale gas around the globe after 2030. We illustrate how timing of investments is affected by inter-temporal hedging behavior of market agents, such as when LNG capacity provides ex-ante flexibility (e.g., in Ukraine to hedge for a possible Russian supply disruption) or an expost fallback option if domestic or nearby pipeline supply sources are low (e.g., uncertain shale gas resources in China). Moreover, we find that investment in LNG capacities is more determined by demand side pull (due to higher needs in electric power generation) than by supply side push (higher shale gas supplies needing an outlet)

Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model

This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas; we also run a more drastic scenario where GASPEC countries deliberately withhold production. The results shows that compared to a Base Case, a gas cartel would reduce total supplied quantities and induce price increases in gas importing countries up to 22%. There is evidence that the natural gas markets in Europe and North America would be affected more than other parts of the world. Lastly, the vulnerability of gas importers worldwide on gas exporting countries supplies is further illustrated by the results of a sensitivity case in which price levels are up to 87% higher in Europe and North America, but non-GEC countries increase production by a mere 10%

Analysis of obstetric complications and uterine connective tissue in tenascin-X-deficient humans and mice

Tenascin-X (TNX) is a large, multi-domain, extracellular matrix glycoprotein. Complete deficiency of TNX in humans leads to a recessive form of Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS), and TNX haploinsufficiency is a cause of hypermobility type EDS. EDS patients appear to have a higher risk of several complications during pregnancy, such as pelvic instability, premature rupture of membranes, and postpartum hemorrhage. Here, we present a study of genitourinary and obstetric complications in TNX-deficient women of reproductive age. We have found complications, such as uterus prolapses, that are in agreement with previous findings in other EDS types. In TNX knockout (KO) mice, we have observed mild pregnancy-related abnormalities. Morphological and immunohistological analysis of uterine tissues has not revealed obvious quantitative or spatial differences between TNX KO and wildtype mice with respect to collagen types I, III, V, and XII or elastic fibers. We conclude that TNX-deficient women are at risk of obstetric complications, but that TNX KO mice show only a mild phenotype. Furthermore, we show that TNX is involved in the stability of elastic fibers rather than in their initial deposition

Shaking Dutch Grounds Won't Shatter the European Gas Market

The Netherlands have been a pivotal supplier in Western European natural gas markets in the last decades. Recent analyses show that the Netherlands would play an important role in replacing Russian supplies in Germany and France in case of Russian export disruption (Richter & Holz, 2015). However, the Netherlands have suffered from regular earthquakes in recent years that are related to the natural gas production in the major Groningen field. Natural gas production rates- that are politically mandated in the Netherlands - have consequently been substantially reduced, with an estimated annual production 30% below the 2013 level. We implement a realistically low production path for the next decades in the Global Gas Model and analyze the geopolitical impacts. We find that the diversification of the European natural gas imports allows spreading the replacement of Dutch gas over many alternative sources, with diverse pipeline and LNG supplies.There will be hardly any price or demand reduction effect. Even if Russia fails to supply Europe, the additional impact of the lower Dutch production is moderate. Again, alternative suppliers from various sources are able to replace the Dutch volumes. Hence, the European consumers need not to worry about the declining Dutch natural gas production and their security of supplies

A western gray whale mitigation and monitoring program for a 3-D seismic survey, Sakhalin Island, Russia

The introduction of anthropogenic sounds into the marine environment can impact some marine mammals. Impacts can be greatly reduced if appropriate mitigation measures and monitoring are implemented. This paper concerns such measures undertaken by Exxon Neftegas Limited, as operator of the Sakhalin-1 Consortium, during the Odoptu 3-D seismic survey conducted during 17 August’ September 2001. The key environmental issue was protection of the critically endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus), which feeds in summer and fall primarily in the Piltun feeding area off northeast Sakhalin Island. Existing mitigation and monitoring practices for seismic surveys in other jurisdictions were evaluated to identify best practices for reducing impacts on feeding activity by western gray whales. Two buffer zones were established to protect whales from physical injury or undue disturbance during feeding. A 1 km buffer protected all whales from exposure to levels of sound energy potentially capable of producing physical injury. A 4’ km buffer was established to avoid displacing western gray whales from feeding areas. Trained Marine Mammal Observers (MMOs) on the seismic ship Nordic Explorer had the authority to shut down the air guns if whales were sighted within these buffers

Positive and negative evaluation of caregiving among three different types of informal care relationships

Based on the caregiver stress model, we examined how care demands, caregiver motivation, coping style and external support are associated with positive evaluation and caregiver burden among spousal, adult child and other types of care relations. Data from a sample of Dutch informal caregivers of 1,685 older persons (55 and older) were analyzed employing multivariate linear regression analyses for each of the care relationship types. Spouses (N = 206) report high positive evaluation and high burden, adult children (N = 1,093) report low positive evaluation, and other caregivers (N = 386) report high positive evaluation and a low burden. Multivariate linear regression analyses showed that motives and external support were important for positive evaluation but the impact varied among types of caregivers, whereas care demands and not asking for help were associated with burden for all types. Only among 'other' caregiver relationships, positive evaluation was negatively associated with burden. It is concluded that results confirm the dual nature of caregiving among spouses and children. The care context and motivation of the different types of caregivers explain their differences in care evaluation. Various interventions for types of caregivers are discussed. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Mapping tenascin-C interaction with toll-like receptor 4 reveals a new subset of endogenous inflammatory triggers

Pattern recognition underpins innate immunity; the accurate identification of danger, including infection, injury, or tumor, is key to an appropriately targeted immune response. Pathogen detection is increasingly well defined mechanistically, but the discrimination of endogenous inflammatory triggers remains unclear. Tenascin-C, a matrix protein induced upon tissue damage and expressed by tumors, activates toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)-mediated sterile inflammation. Here we map three sites within tenascin-C that directly and cooperatively interact with TLR4. We also identify a conserved inflammatory epitope in related proteins from diverse families, and demonstrate that its presence targets molecules for TLR detection, while its absence enables escape of innate immune surveillance. These data reveal a unique molecular code that defines endogenous proteins as inflammatory stimuli by marking them for recognition by TLRs

The Role of CO2-EOR for the Development of a CCTS Infrastructure in the North Sea Region: A Techno-Economic Model and Application

Scenarios of future energy systems attribute an important role to Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS) in achieving emission reductions. Using captured CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) can improve the economics of the technology. This paper examines the potential for CO2-EOR in the North Sea region. UK oil fields are found to account for 47% of the estimated additional recovery potential of 3739 Mbbl (1234 MtCO2 of storage potential). Danish and Norwegian fields add 28% and 25%, respectively. Based on a comprehensive dataset, the paper develops a unique techno-economic market equilibrium model of CO2 supply from emission sources and CO2 demand from CO2-EOR to assess implications for a future CCTS infrastructure. A detailed representation of decreasing demand for fresh CO2 for CO2-EOR operation is accomplished via an exponential storage cost function. In all scenarios of varying CO2 and crude oil price paths the assumed CO2-EOR potential is fully exploited. CO2-EOR does add value to CCTS operations but the potential is very limited and does not automatically induce long term CCTS activity. If CO2 prices stay low, little further use of CCTS can be expected after 2035

Analysis of the World Market for Steam Coal Using a Complementarity Model

With its resource availability and the prospect of climate friendly technology, coal continues to play an important role in the global energy sector. We develop a complementarity model of the international market for steam coal. We want to analyze the level of competition in this market which is strategic for the importers' security of energy supply. In a spatial equilibrium framework, we assume the steam coal exporters to maximize their profits by choosing the optimal quantity to sell to each importing country. We compare two possible scenarios: perfect competition and Cournot competition. The results, especially the price levels, indicate that the Cournot model is not realistic, suggesting that the producing countries do not exert market power. However, the trade flows and prices observed in reality suggests that there is some form of market power with price discrimination, possibly following a Bertrand model in a spatial setting