Simulating Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Post-Rainy Season Sorghum Yields in India

Given the wide use of the multi-climate model mean (MMM) for impact assessment studies, this work examines the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the features of Indian summer monsoons as well as the post-rainy seasons for assessing the possible impacts of climate change on post-rainy season sorghum crop yields across India. The MMM simulations captured the spatial patterns and annual cycles of rainfall and surface air temperatures. However, bias was observed in the precipitation amounts and daily rainfall intensity. The trends in the simulations of MMM for both precipitation and temperatures were less satisfactory than the observed climate means. The Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-sorghum model was used to estimate the potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yield values. On average, post-rainy season sorghum yields are projected to vary betwee

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Not AvailableCrop weather calendars (CWC) serve as tools for taking crop management decisions. However, CWCs are not dynamic, as they were prepared by assuming normal sowing dates and fixed occurrence as well as duration of phenological stages of rainfed crops. Sowing dates fluctuate due to variability in monsoon onset and phenology varies according to crop duration and stresses encountered. Realizing the disadvantages of CWC for issuing accurate agromet advisories, a protocol of dynamic crop weather calendar (DCWC) was developed by All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology (AICRPAM). The DCWC intends to automatize agromet advisories using prevailing and forecasted weather. Different modules of DCWC, namely, Sowing & irrigation schedules, crop contingency plans, phenophase-wise crop advisory, and advisory for harvest were prepared using long-term data of ten crops at nine centers of AICRPAM in eight states in India. Modules for predicting sowing dates and phenology were validated for principal crops and varieties at selected locations. The predicted sowing dates of 10 crops pooled over nine centers showed close relationships with observed values (r2 of .93). Predicted phenology showed better agreement with observed in all crops except cotton (Gossypium L.; at Parbhani) and pigeon pea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp.] (at Bangalore). Predicted crop phenology using forecasted and realized weather by DCWC are close to each other, but number of irrigations differed, and it failed for accurate prediction in groundnut at Anantapur in drought year (2014). The DCWCs require further validation for making it operational to issue agromet advisories in all 732 districts of India.Not Availabl