A review of world sardine catch patterns: What can be said about the likely duration of the current peak in South African sardine fishery

The question of how long the current peak in South African sardine catch will extend is posed. Historic sardine catch series throughout the world are considered and two models are fitted to these series to establish their reliability for predicting future trends in catches. The authors find little basis to draw conclusions for the South African resource based on trends elsewhere. More dependable inferences may be forthcoming from the South African catch series itself, analyses of which suggest that catches may remain high (above some 200 000 tons) until about 2007, but this inference should not be considered particularly reliable

Adjusted anchovy assessment with implications for OMP-08

This corrected assessment fits the survey data better. Unlike for the previous assessment which used incorrect catch data, there now appears to be no compelling reason to change the juvenile natural mortality from the 0.9 yr-1 used for the 2004 assessment and in testing OMP-04, particularly since estimates of the ratios of biases for the acoustic survey abundance

Further considerations for OMP-08

OMP-08 has been updated following the recommendations of the Pelagic Working Group. The implications of such changes to the OMP are shown in this document, together with the implications for some further alternatives to the sardine and anchovy exceptional circumstances rules and the additional season anchovy TAC rule

Generating the future proportion of directed sardine catch taken west of Cape Agulhas in the absence of explicit spatial management

The relationship governing the proportion of directed sardine catch simulated to be taken west of Cape Agulhas during projections underlying the development of OMP-18 is updated. The relationship now differs for each draw from the posterior distribution

Is the sardine population now outside the range tested for OMP-04, and if so, what are the implications for the basis for recommending a 2007 directed sardine TAC

The below average recruitment to the sardine population in 2004 and 2005 has sparked concern as to whether this has taken the population outside the range projected when OMP-04 was tested. OMP-04 (Cunningham and Butterworth 2005) was developed on the basis of assessments taking data up to November 2003 into account, a period ending when the sardine biomass was at a peak (Cunningham and Butterworth 2004)

An alternative relationship to determine future movement of sardine recruits between the "west" and "south" stocks

de Moor and Butterworth (2013a) explored some possible relationships between the proportion of “west” stock recruits moving to the “south” stock and “west” or “south” stock 1+ biomass or recruitment. A relationship based on the ratio of “south” to “west” stock 1+ biomass in the previous November was used for initial testing of Candidate Management Procedures under a two stock sardine hypothesis

Interim OMP-13 v2

The management procedure used to recommend total allowable catches (TACs) and bycatches (TABs) for sardine and anchovy in South African waters is currently being revised. Given the extensive testing desired for this new management procedure, which among other factors includes taking account of the possibility of multiple sardine stocks and of the impact of the recommended catches on penguins, a final version of OMP- 13 is not yet available. However, the Small Pelagic Scientific Working Group has agreed a revised version of “Interim OMP-13”, called “Interim OMP-13v2” for use in June 2013 for calculating recommended final TAC/Bs for 2013. The revised management procedure, OMP-13, is expected to be finalised and agreed during 2013. This document details “Interim OMP-13v2”

When would a survey estimate be considered "appreciably outside the bounds predicted in the OMP testing"

Anon. (2009), outlining the procedures for deviating from or initiating an early review of the pelagic OMP, was discussed at the Scientific Working Group (Pelagic) on 26th February 2009. The document lists examples as to what might constitute Exceptional Circumstances in the case of sardine and anchovy. One such example was: “Survey estimates of abundance that are appreciably outside the bounds predicted in the OMP testing.” A request was made to develop a rule to determine what determines when a survey estimate is “appreciably outside the bounds predicted in the OMP testing.

A summary of the South African sardine (and anchovy) fishery

The sardine fishery is an important component of the South African purse-seine fishery, the largest commercial fishery in South Africa (by landed mass). This fishery, initially established on the West Coast, but with some subsequent infrastructure development on the South Coast, is currently under pressure because of recent low biomass levels, reduced TACs and frequent changes in the spatial distribution of the resource. The current low biomass followed from prolonged poor recruitment, whereas the distributional changes are plausibly linked to processes related to spatial structuring of the population, which is now hypothesized to comprise multiple components (western, southern and eastern), with interchange amongst them. Given the predominantly west-coast-based location of sardine processing infrastructure, exploitation levels on the western component is high relative to other components, particularly when most of the biomass is located on the south coast. This has sparked debate about whether there is need for spatially differentiated management to ensure both a healthy ecosystem and a more soundly managed resource. This document summarises the history of the fishery, the current status of the resource and data used in its assessment and management