Commentary on “Transparent modelling of influenza incidence”: On big data models for infectious disease forecasting

peer reviewe

Quantum-state control in optical lattices

We study the means to prepare and coherently manipulate atomic wave packets in optical lattices, with particular emphasis on alkali atoms in the far-detuned limit. We derive a general, basis independent expression for the lattice operator, and show that its off-diagonal elements can be tailored to couple the vibrational manifolds of separate magnetic sublevels. Using these couplings one can evolve the state of a trapped atom in a quantum coherent fashion, and prepare pure quantum states by resolved-sideband Raman cooling. We explore the use of atoms bound in optical lattices to study quantum tunneling and the generation of macroscopic superposition states in a double-well potential. Far-off-resonance optical potentials lend themselves particularly well to reservoir engineering via well controlled fluctuations in the potential, making the atom/lattice system attractive for the study of decoherence and the connection between classical and quantum physics.Comment: 35 pages including 8 figures. To appear in Phys. Rev. A. March 199

Global Activation of CD8+ Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes Correlates with an Impairment in Regulatory T Cells in Patients with Generalized Vitiligo

Melanocyte-specific CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) play a pivotal role in vitiligo-induced depigmentation. Yet, the mechanisms underlying the high frequency of generalized autoimmune disorders associated with generalized vitiligo (GV) are unknown. We hypothesized that an imbalance between activated CD8+ CTLs and regulatory T cells (Tregs) exists in patients with GV . Assessment of the circulating CD8+ CTLs and Tregs by flow cytometric analysis revealed an obvious expansion of CD8+ CTLs and a concomitant decrease in Treg cells in GV patients. The percentages of skin infiltrating CD8+ CTLs and Tregs were evaluated by immunohistochemistry and revealed dramatically increased numbers of both CD8+ CTLs and Tregs in the perilesional skin of GV patients. However, peripheral Tregs were impaired in their ability to suppress the proliferation and cytolytic capacity of autologous CD8+ T cells, suggesting that a functional failure of Tregs and the hyper-activation of CD8+ CTLs may contribute to progressive GV. Our data indicate that reduced numbers and impaired function of natural Tregs fail to control the widespread activation of CD8+ CTLs, which leads to the destruction of melanocytes and contributes to the elevated frequency of various associated autoimmune diseases. This knowledge furthers our understanding of the mechanisms of immune tolerance that are impaired in GV patients and may aid in the future development of effective immunotherapy for GV patients

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Forecasting: theory and practice

peer reviewedForecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases