Term structure information and bond strategies

We examine term structure theories by using a novel approach. We form bond investment strategies based on different theories of the term structure in order to determine which strategy performs best. When using a manipulation-proof performance measure, we find that consistent with prior literature, an active strategy that is based on time varying term premiums can indeed form the basis of a successful bond strategy that outperforms an unbiased expectation inspired passive bond buy and hold strategy. This is true, however, for an earlier time period when the literature first made this claim. In a later time period, we find that the passive buy and hold strategy is significantly superior to all active strategies. This result is confirmed by statistical tests and it suggests that once it became known that an active strategy based on time varying term premiums could outperform a passive buy and hold strategy, the markets adjusted and arbitraged away this opportunity. Overall, it appears that the unbiased expectation hypothesis is the most likely explanation of the behaviour of the term structure during more recent times. This is because economically and statistically significant superior performance cannot be achieved if one uses information from the forward curve or the term structure as a guide to adjusting bond portfolios in response to changes in the term premium.This work was supported by Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha [grant number PEII11-0031-6939]; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación [grant number ECO2011-28134] and partially supported by Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) funds.

Stock market integration in Africa

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the nature and extent of linkages between African stock markets and the relationships between these markets and that of regional and global indices. Design/methodology/approach The monthly returns of S&P/IFC return indices for ten African countries over the period 1998-2007 were analyzed. The index return volatility was decomposed into three components following Barari and the contributions of regional and global market movements to the local index volatility were estimated. Findings It was found that African stock markets are still segmented from global markets in spite of recent structural adjustments and that the local index volatility is largely country-specific, which can be diversified away by cross-country diversification. Originality/value This paper provides further evidence on stock market integration in emerging markets. The finding suggests that African stock markets, with the exception of South Africa, are still segmented from global markets. Thus, recent structural adjustment and liberalisation policies have not reduced stock market segmentation in Africa. This paper therefore has implications for policy makers and international investors.</p

Stock market integration in Africa

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the nature and extent of linkages between African stock markets and the relationships between these markets and that of regional and global indices. Design/methodology/approach The monthly returns of S&P/IFC return indices for ten African countries over the period 1998-2007 were analyzed. The index return volatility was decomposed into three components following Barari and the contributions of regional and global market movements to the local index volatility were estimated. Findings It was found that African stock markets are still segmented from global markets in spite of recent structural adjustments and that the local index volatility is largely country-specific, which can be diversified away by cross-country diversification. Originality/value This paper provides further evidence on stock market integration in emerging markets. The finding suggests that African stock markets, with the exception of South Africa, are still segmented from global markets. Thus, recent structural adjustment and liberalisation policies have not reduced stock market segmentation in Africa. This paper therefore has implications for policy makers and international investors.</p

The comovement of option listed stocks

This study examines the changes in return comovement around the listing and delisting of stock option contracts. We show that newly option listed stocks experience an increase in comovement with a portfolio of option listed stocks and a decrease in comovement with the portfolio of non-optioned stocks. Similarly, stocks that undergo option delisting exhibit a decrease in comovement with option listed stocks and an increase in comovement with non-optioned stocks. We verify the reliability of our findings in several ways. A matched sample analysis suggests that our results are not driven by factors other than option listing and we find similar results using a calendar-time approach. Further analysis reveals that commonalities in option trading may induce the comovement in the option listed stocks. Overall, our evidence is consistent with the predictions of the category or habitat view of comovement

Investor interaction and excess volatility in financial assets

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