The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world (19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies

BACKGROUND Demographic transition theory was shattered dramatically as a result of the research carried out in the course of the Princeton European Fertility Project. There is still no consensus among demographers as to the causes underlying the fertility transition. OBJECTIVE We set out to test the explanatory capacity of certain variables which have traditionally been used to interpret the historical decline in fertility (mortality, level of education, economic development, urbanization) as well as the role played by the rise of the welfare state. METHODS We collected information on different kinds of socioeconomic variables in 25 developed countries over a very long period of time. We carried out panel cointegrating regressions and country panel fixed and time effects generalized least squares. RESULTS We show that the decline in mortality, the increase in educational level, and economic factors all played a leading role in the historical decline in fertility. We found that the present welfare system places a remarkable burden on those who decide to have a family. CONCLUSIONS A new kind of public social transfer model needs to be designed which will minimize the damaging consequences that our current welfare states have had with regard to fertility. CONTRIBUTION 1) The emphasis on the causal impact of the emergence and maturation of the social welfare system using Lindert's data on social transfers since the late 19th century to 1990. 2) The enormous amount of historical data compiled, as documented in the Appendix. 3) The modern panel cointegration techniques used to analyze the long- and short-term impacts of the different determinants of fertility

Trends in the proportion of married women of reproductive age in Spain, 1887-1991

Using the Princeton nuptiality index Im, we analyzed historical developments in the proportion of married women of reproductive age in Spain. We show the internal diversity in nuptiality patterns and offer an explanatory statistical model based on panel data analysis to identify the main variables influencing these changes over more than a century (1887–1991). We found that Spain has been the developed country with the greatest contrasts in its provincial nuptiality patterns (measured by Im), although this diversity has lessened over the course of time. We also found that some socioeconomic variables (the gross domestic product per capita and the percentage of population living in cities) do not have a linear relationship with female nuptiality but rather have a U shape or an inverted U shape. This may partly account for some of the controversy that has raged on this topic over the past few decades on an international level

Mortality-fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world

The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empírica{ results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others' research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transitionThis work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain under Grant CSO2012-31206; and Autonomous Community of Madrid under Grant H2015/HUM-3321

¿Dejar el hogar para mejorar? Movilidad ocupacional de inmigrantes cualificados: Algunas observaciones empíricas desde España, antes de la crisis económica actual

The purpose of this paper is to study the occupational mobility experienced following migration by migrants who are university graduates or postgraduates who completed their studies before their arrival in Spain. To do so, we compared the first job they obtained in Spain with the last one held before leaving their country of origin. We identify three different types of mobility: downward mobility, lateral mobility, and upward mobility. Finally, we used logistic regression models to identify the strongest predictors of the three types of mobility previously classified. The empirical analysis was carried out using data from the Spanish National Immigrant Survey (ENI) of 2007, including information about some 15 000 individuals. Our attention will be focused on the 2 425 skilled migrants from this survey.El objetivo de este artículo es estudiar la movilidad ocupacional experimentada por los inmigrantes que completaron sus estudios universitarios (de grado y postgrado) antes de su llegada a España. Para ello hemos comparado la primera ocupación que tuvieron en España con la última que tuvieron antes de dejar su país de origen. Hemos identificado tres tipos diferentes de movilidad: movilidad descendente; movilidad lateral y, finalmente, movilidad ascendente. Por último, hemos usado modelos de regresión logística para identificar los predictores más importantes de estos tres tipos de movilidad. El análisis empírico se hizo utilizando información aportada por la Encuesta Nacional de Inmigrantes (ENI) de 2007, que tiene información de unos 15 000 individuos. Nuestra atención se centra en 2 425 inmigrantes cualificado

Socio-demographic risks and challenges of bare-branch villages in China

China’s bare branches, the Chinese name for surplus men, have attracted much attention, yet few studies have focused on the increasing phenomenon of bare-branch villages. In this literature review, the formation of bare-branch villages, the impact of such villages on individual bare branches and their families, and potential threats to villages and families are analyzed. It was found that the sex ratio and female marriage migration to prosperous areas are the two main determinants of the formation of bare-branch villages. Individual bare branches in such villages are affected both physically and psychologically and are isolated in social activities. Their families and villages suffer in many ways. Bare branches may accelerate the spread of sexually transmitted diseases and increase the incidence of criminal behavior and violence. Even worse, because bare branches in a village share many bonds, they may take collective actions that can endanger China’s social stability.This work is jointly supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, the 985-3 Project of Xi’an Jiaotong University, and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206)

Bride price in China: the obstacle to 'Bare Branches' seeking marriage

Throughout Chinese history, the country's patrilineal family system has lead to the practice of paying for brides, a social phenomenon closely related to the issue of surplus males in China. This article attempts to analyze the fluctuations in bride prices over the last 50 years, and at the same time investigate the two vicious cycles involving ‘bare branches’ and the ways in which they find money to pay a bride price. The following points are concluded: 1. The prevalence of paying a bride price is closely related to China's shortage of females. Due to the difficulty involved in finding a wife, bride prices have consistently risen since the 1980s. 2. Males in poor rural areas are afflicted by two vicious cycles. The first is the ‘poor—bare branch—poorer’ cycle. Specifically, poverty prevents them from finding a spouse; this effectively turns them into bare branches, after which they become even poorer. The second is the ‘inability to pay the bride price—bare branch—need to pay a higher bride price’ cycle. Unable to pay a bride price because they are poor, they are forced to postpone getting married to save enough money. After they become bare branches, they find themselves in a more disadvantaged position, and as a result must pay a higher bride price when seeking a wife. 3. In order to pay a bride price, many families are forced to scrimp and save for decades, to borrow money or to take out other types of loans. In extreme circumstances, they will even resort to obtaining money illegally in order to pay a bride price.This work is jointly supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (09XSH005) and 985-3 Project of Xi’an Jiaotong University. This work has also been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CSO2009-11883/SOCI)

Child trafficking in China

Child trafficking is a serious problem in China. However, there has not been much research in this area. This article introduces the problem of child trafficking in China based on available data. First, the article examines the reasons for child trafficking followed by a summary description of the characteristics of the children who have been victims of trafficking. Next, the article analyzes the process of child trafficking and discusses the fate of the children involved. The article additionally provides a description of the various measures adopted by the Chinese government and NGOs (non-governmental organizations) to combat child trafficking and mentions the resistance to these measures. This article will hopefully draw the attention of the government, academia and the public to this issue.This work was jointly supported by the 985-3 Project of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206)

Demographic causes of urban decline in 17th century Spain

This article presents the results of our reconstruction of the entire Spanish population for the period 1500-1860 carried out using census data and estimates of births and deaths. The purpose is to establish the impact of the urban network on population growth in the country as a whole, and more particularly, on the demographic crisis of the seventeenth century.The results suggest that, despite the relatively low life expectancy (around 25-30 years), the low marriage rate also played a leading role in regulating demographic growth. In concrete, in the periods of high military spending when Spain was fighting to retain its hegemonic position (first against the Netherlands and then against Great Britain), higher taxation also had an important influence on the regulation of demographic growth. Substantial taxes affected families' standard of living, which meant that the marriage rate dropped, leading to demographic stagnation.Cet article presente les résultats d’une reconstruction de l’ensemble de la population espagnole, pour la période 1500-1860, réalisée à partir des données de recensements et des estimations des naissances et des décès. Il se propose d’évaluer l’impact du réseau urbain sur la croissance de la population dans son ensemble, et plus particulièrement sur la crise démographique du 17e siècle. Les résultats suggèrent que, en dépit de la faible espérance de vie (autour de 25-30 ans), le faible taux de nuptialité a joué un rôle détetminant dans la régulation de la croissance démographique. Concrètement, dans les périodes de forte dépense militaire où l’Espagne se battait pour maintenir sa position hégémonique (d’abord contre les Pays-Bas puis contre la grande Bretagne), le niveau plus élevé de la fiscalité a également eu une influence importante sur la régulation de la croissance démographique. Les lourdes impositions ont affecté le niveau de vie des familles, ce qui s’est traduit par une chute des taux de nuptialité, conduisant à une stagnation démographique.This study received financial support through a research project granted by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (reference CSO2012-31206)

Dynamic analysis of the long-term relationships between mortality and marital fertility in the developed world

According to the traditional theory of the demographic transition, the drop in mortality was the main mechanism which accounted for the subsequent decline in fertility. This basic idea was questioned by the results of the well-known Princeton European Fertility Project, but even now there is relatively little empirical research providing solid evidence that can shed light on the determinants of fertility in modern times. We examine the long-term relationship between marital fertility, mortality and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) using panel cointegration techniques for a group of 15 developed countries from the 19th century until the present day. The statistical models used show that mortality plays a major role in fertility reductions.This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain under Grant CSO2012-31206; and Autonomous Community of Madrid under Grant H2015/HUM-3321

Data uncertainties in China's population

China’s large population and many demographic phenomena have drawn much attention, but its population data are flawed. In the paper we address uncertainties regarding China’s total population size, the fertility rate, and the death rate in China’s census data. The review is aimed to alert users of China’s data about the uncertainties and flaws so as to avoid misleading claims or research.This work is jointly supported by the key project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (14AZD096), the HSSTP project of Shaanxi Province (Jiang), and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206)