Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer's land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH - Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes

Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations

Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization.Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons.This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation

Mathematical models for immunology:current state of the art and future research directions

The advances in genetics and biochemistry that have taken place over the last 10 years led to significant advances in experimental and clinical immunology. In turn, this has led to the development of new mathematical models to investigate qualitatively and quantitatively various open questions in immunology. In this study we present a review of some research areas in mathematical immunology that evolved over the last 10 years. To this end, we take a step-by-step approach in discussing a range of models derived to study the dynamics of both the innate and immune responses at the molecular, cellular and tissue scales. To emphasise the use of mathematics in modelling in this area, we also review some of the mathematical tools used to investigate these models. Finally, we discuss some future trends in both experimental immunology and mathematical immunology for the upcoming years

Epistasis among Presynaptic Serotonergic System Components

Epistatic interactions among regulatory components of the serotonin (5-HT) neurotransmitter system may be an important aspect of 5-HT function. Because 5-HT dysregulation is associated with several common psychiatric disorders, the potential for epistasis among genetic variants in the 5-HT transporter (SERT), 5-HT 1B terminal autoreceptor and the 5-HT 1A somatodendritic autoreceptor should be examined. In this study, output from a dynamic minimal model of 5-HT function was compared to empirical results in the literature. Parameters representing extracellular 5-HT clearance rates (SERT), 5-HT release levels (5-HT 1B ) and inhibitory thresholds (the amount of extracellular 5-HT above which cell firing is inhibited, an indication of 5-HT 1A autoreceptor sensitivity) were varied to simulate genetic deletion (i.e. knockout) of each component singly, and in combination. Simulated knockout effects on extracellular 5-HT level and presynaptic neural firing rates were in the same direction and of similar relative magnitude as studies in the literature. Epistasis among presynaptic components appears to be important in the 5-HT system’s regulation of extracellular 5-HT levels, but not of firing rates.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44113/1/10519_2004_Article_1019.pd

Illness representations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) to inform health education strategies and research design-learning from rural Uganda

More than 90% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries; however, few studies have examined the illness experiences of individuals living with and providing treatment for COPD in these settings. This study characterizes illness representations for COPD in Nakaseke, Uganda from the perspectives of health care providers, village health teams and community members (CMs) with COPD. We conducted 40 in-depth, semi-structured interviews (16 health care providers, 12 village health teams and 12 CMs, aged 25–80 years). Interviews were analyzed using inductive coding, and the Illness Representations Model guided our analysis. Stakeholder groups showed concordance in identifying causal mechanisms of COPD, but showed disagreement in reasons for care seeking behaviors and treatment preferences. CMs did not use a distinct label to differentiate COPD from other respiratory illnesses, and described both the physical and social consequences of COPD. Local representations can inform development of adapted educational and self-management tools for COPD

Technical assessment and evaluation of environmental models and software : letter to the Editor

This letter details the collective views of a number of independent researchers on the technical assessment and evaluation of environmental models and software. The purpose is to stimulate debate and initiate action that leads to an improved quality of model development and evaluation, so increasing the capacity for models to have positive outcomes from their use. As such, we emphasize the relationship between the model evaluation process and credibility with stakeholders (including funding agencies) with a view to ensure continued support for modelling efforts. Many journals, including EM&S, publish the results of environmental modelling studies and must judge the work and the submitted papers based solely on the material that the authors have chosen to present and on how they present it. There is considerable variation in how this is done with the consequent risk of considerable variation in the quality and usefulness of the resulting publication. Part of the problem is that the review process is reactive, responding to the submitted manuscript. In this letter, we attempt to be proactive and give guidelines for researchers, authors and reviewers as to what constitutes best practice in presenting environmental modelling results. This is a unique contribution to the organisation and practice of model-based research and the communication of its results that will benefit the entire environmental modelling community. For a start, our view is that the community of environmental modellers should have a common vision of minimum standards that an environmental model must meet. A common vision of what a good model should be is expressed in various guidelines on Good Modelling Practice. The guidelines prompt modellers to codify their practice and to be more rigorous in their model testing. Our statement within this letter deals with another aspect of the issue – it prompts professional journals to codify the peer-review process. Introducing a more formalized approach to peer-review may discourage reviewers from accepting invitations to review given the additional time and labour requirements. The burden of proving model credibility is thus shifted to the authors. Here we discuss how to reduce this burden by selecting realistic evaluation criteria and conclude by advocating the use of standardized evaluation tools as this is a key issue that needs to be tackled.Not applicabl