An automatic selection of optimal recurrent neural network architecture for processes dynamics modelling purposes

A problem related to the development of algorithms designed to find the structure of artificial neural network used for behavioural (black-box) modelling of selected dynamic processes has been addressed in this paper. The research has included four original proposals of algorithms dedicated to neural network architecture search. Algorithms have been based on well-known optimisation techniques such as evolutionary algorithms and gradient descent methods. In the presented research an artificial neural network of recurrent type has been used, whose architecture has been selected in an optimised way based on the above-mentioned algorithms. The optimality has been understood as achieving a trade-off between the size of the neural network and its accuracy in capturing the response of the mathematical model under which it has been learnt. During the optimisation, original specialised evolutionary operators have been proposed. The research involved an extended validation study based on data generated from a mathematical model of the fast processes occurring in a pressurised water nuclear reactor.Comment: 32 pages, 17 figures, code availabl

Inequality, Fiscal Capacity and the Political Regime: Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition

Using panel data for twenty-seven post-communist economies between 1987-2003, we examine the nexus of relationships between inequality, fiscal capacity (defined as the ability to raise taxes efficiently) and the political regime. Investigating the impact of political reform we find that full political freedom is associated with lower levels of income inequality. Under more oligarchic (authoritarian) regimes, the level of inequality is conditioned by the state’s fiscal capacity. Specifically, oligarchic regimes with more developed fiscal systems are able to defend the prevailing vested interests at a lower cost in terms of social injustice. This empirical finding is consistent with the model developed by Acemoglu (2006). We also find that transition countries undertaking early macroeconomic stabilisation now enjoy lower levels of inequality; we confirm that education fosters equality and the suggestion of Commander et al (1999) that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57211/1/wp831 .pd

Soft tissue sarcoma - diagnosis and treatment

W ciągu ostatnich kilkunastu lat osiągnięto znaczący postęp w leczeniu mięsaków tkanek miękkich - nie tylko ogniska pierwotnego, ale również wznów miejscowych i przerzutów. Podstawową metodą jest leczenie chirurgiczne, a wprowadzenie zasady skojarzonego postępowania, czyli standardowego łączenia chirurgii z radioterapią i niekiedy chemioterapią oraz rehabilitacji w wyspecjalizowanych ośrodkach znamiennie zwiększyło szansę na ograniczenie zasięgu operacji, całkowite wyleczenie chorego lub uzyskanie długoletniego przeżycia. Współczesne leczenie skojarzone oraz stosowanie metod rekonstrukcyjnych pozwala u większości chorych na mięsaki tkanek miękkich o lokalizacji kończynowych na oszczędzenie kończyny. W porównaniu z latami 60.-70., kiedy amputację wykonywano u około 50% chorych, obecnie w ośrodkach referencyjnych odsetek ten nie przekracza 10%. Ogólnie obserwuje się powolny, ale stały wzrost odsetka chorych na mięsaki tkanek miękkich z wieloletnimi przeżyciami. Wskaźnik 5-letnich przeżyć całkowitych chorych na mięsaki tkanek miękkich zlokalizowane w obrębie kończyn wynosi obecnie 55-78%. W przypadku rozpoznania przerzutów długość okresu przeżycia jest jednak nadal zła i wynosi średnio około 1 roku. Korzystnych wyników miejscowych leczenia mięsaków można spodziewać się tylko w przypadku planowego (tzn. po wcześniejszej biopsji) całkowitego wycięcia mięsaka w mikroskopowo wolnych od nowotworu granicach (tzw. resekcja R0). Po przeprowadzeniu prawidłowego postępowania diagnostycznego u większości chorych poddawanych radykalnej operacji konieczne jest zastosowanie uzupełniającej radioterapii, wielotygodniowej rehabilitacji i kontynuowanie badań kontrolnych w tym samym ośrodku przez minimum 5 lat. Postęp wiąże się z wprowadzeniem do praktyki klinicznej leków o celowanym działaniu związanym z molekularnymi lub genetycznymi zaburzeniami w komórkach, które uczestniczą w etiopatogenezie tych nowotworów. Ze względu na rzadkie występowanie mięsaków oraz konieczność skojarzonego postępowania najważniejsze jest prowadzenie diagnostyki i terapii już od początku w ramach wielodyscyplinarnego zespołu w ośrodku onkologicznym o odpowiednim doświadczeniu i zapleczu diagnostycznym.Significant progress in the treatment of soft tissue sarcoma (STS), both primary tumor and local recurrences/ metastatic disease, has been achieved in recent years. Surgery is essential modality, but the use of combined treatment (standard combination of surgery with adjuvant radiotherapy, chemotherapy in selected cases and perioperative rehabilitation) in highly-experienced centers increased possibility of cure and limitations of extent of local surgery. Current combined therapy together with the use of reconstructive methods allows for limb-sparing surgery in majority of soft tissue sarcoma patients (amputation in 10% of cases as compared to approximately 50% in the 1960-70s). The slow, but constant, increase of rate of soft tissue sarcoma patients with long-term survival has been observed. Contemporary 5-year overall survival rate in patients with extremity soft tissue sarcomas is 55-78%. In case of diagnosis of metastatic disease the prognosis is still poor (survival of approximately 1 year). Good results of local therapy may be expected only after planned (e.g., after preoperative biopsy - tru-cut or incisional) radical surgical excision of primary tumor with pathologically negative margins (R0 resection). Following appropriate diagnostic check-up, adjuvant radiotherapy is necessary in the majority of patients treated with radical surgery need, as well as long-term rehabilitation and follow-up examinations in treating center are needed for at least 5 years. The progress is due to the introductionof targeted therapy acting on molecular or genetic cellular disturbances detected during studies on etiopathogenetic mechanisms of sarcoma subtypes. In view of rarity of sarcomas and necessity of multidisciplinary therapy, the crucial issue is that management of these tumors should be hold in experienced oncological sarcoma centers

Epidemiology of physical activity in adult Polish population in the second decade of the 21st century. Results of the NATPOL 2011 study

Objectives: The aim of the study was to assess physical activity (PA) level in a representative sample of Polish adults.Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was performed among 2413 randomly selected individuals (51.5% women) aged 18-79 years, who participated in the Nationwide Study of Occurrence of Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Diseases NATPOL 2011 (March-July 2011). The study procedures consisted of a questionnaire as well as of anthropometric, blood pressure and biochemical measurements. Leisure-time, occupational and commuting PA were assessed by the use of a questionnaire interview. Results: About 48.2% of adults do exercise for at least 30 minutes on most days of a week. About 11% of the respondents declare a sedentary lifestyle. About 26.5% of working population report hard physical work, while sedentary work is reported by 47.6% of the employed participants. Active commuting is declared by 27.3% of working/studying population. About 47.2%, 36.6%, and 15.3% spend 30 min per day, respectively, on this kind of PA. Conclusions: PA level of more than half of Polish adults is still not satisfactory. Promotion of an active lifestyle should concern mainly leisure-time and commuting PA with paying special attention to substantial differences in various socio-demographic groups

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio : a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and nonHDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results: Since similar to 1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at similar to 0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as similar to 0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to similar to 26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.Peer reviewe

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups