Demographics, ideology and voting behaviour:A factor analysis of state-wide ballot measures

Formal dimension-reduction techniques are frequently used to interpret data on legislative voting behavior. This study applies one such technique to countylevel election returns on 11 ballot measures in South Dakota’s 2006 general election. The measures on the 2006 ballot proposed substantial legal and policy changes, and spanned a broad area of the policy space. This and South Dakota’s high voter turnout levels makes it especially well-suited for the purpose of analyzing links between election returns and demographic and economic data. The factor analysis suggests a puritan-libertarian spectrum as the best 1-dimensional characterization of political divisions within the state. A county’s location on this spectrum is most strongly associated with measures of its population age and per capita income. Factor scores are very good predictors of support for the reelection of the incumbent Governor

Explaining Home Bias in Consumption: The Role of Intermediate Input Trade

We show that 'home bias' in trade patterns will arise endogenously due to the co-location decisions of intermediate and final goods producers. Our model identifies four implications of home bias arising out of specialized industrial demands. Regions absorb different bundles of goods. Buyers and sellers of intermediate goods co-locate. Intermediate input trade is highly localized. The effect of spatial frictions on trade are magnified. These implications are examined and confirmed using a unique data source that matches the detailed subnational geography of shipments to the characteristics of the shipping establishments. Our results broaden the measurement and interpretation of home bias, and provide new evidence on the role of intermediate inputs in concentrating production.

A Decomposition of North American Trade Growth since NAFTA

Total U.S. trade with NAFTA partners has increased 78 percent in real terms since 1993-U.S. Mexico trade alone is up 141 percent-compared to a 43 percent increase in U.S. trade with the rest of the world. In this article we compare the nature of U.S. trade growth with Canada and Mexico to growth in U.S. trade with non NAFTA partners. We apply a simple decomposition of trade growth offered by Hummels and Klenow (2002) that provides insights into whether the United States is trading more of the same goods with NAFTA partners since 1993, or trading new products. The results provide evidence of both. A sizeable component of U.S. trade growth since 1993 can be explained by increases in the variety of products the U.S. imports from Mexico.NAFTA, International Trade

Intra-national Home Bias: Some Explanations

Wolf (2000) demonstrates that trade within the U.S. appears substantially impeded by state borders. We revisit this finding with improved data. We show that much intra-national home bias can be explained by wholesaling activity. Shipments by wholesalers are much more localized within states than shipments from manufacturing establishments. Controlling for relative prices and the use of actual, rather than imputed, shipment distances also reduces home bias estimates.

REGIONALISM, TRADE AND GROWTH: THE CASE OF THE EU-SOUTH AFRICA FREE TRADE ARRANGEMENT

In a sequential Computable General Equilibrium analysis, we investigate the likely effects of the EU-South Africa Free Trade agreement (FTA), with a special emphasis on South Africa’s growth prospects. We find that the FTA increases South African output and welfare. We note, however, that the gains are very modest when viewed in the context of the time period over which full adjustment to the treaty provisions is expected to occur. Only 2 percent of the economic growth expected over the next 18 years in South Africa can be linked to additional trade associated with the FTA. The long phase-in period and the partial benefits of regionalism limit the importance of trade as an engine of growth.Free Trade Area, South Africa, European Union

'Fair Trade' Coffee and the Mitigation of Local Oligopsony Power

In recent years there has been considerable growth in ‘Fair Trade’ markets for several commodities, but most notably for coffee. We argue that coffee is grown under conditions that might well subject growers to the market power of intermediaries. Using an approach designed to evaluate the impact of state trading enterprises, we develop an oligopsony model of intermediaries. In this model, ‘Fair Trade’ firms optimize a welfare function that includes the producer surplus of growers. This concern for growers’ welfare among some intermediary firms helps to alleviate the market power distortion. We calibrate the model to price data reported by a fair trade organization, and consider the counterfactual removal of fair trade behavior by intermediaries and customers downstream. As expected, the income of coffee growers (in aggregate) is reduced, though the effects are quite small.coffee, fair trade, oligopsony

Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows

We propose two distinct approaches to the measurement of industry upstreamness (or average distance from final use) and show that they yield an equivalent measure. Furthermore, we provide two additional interpretations of this measure, one of them related to the concept of forward linkages in Input-Output analysis. On the empirical side, we construct this measure for 426 industries using the 2002 US Input-Output Tables. We also verify the stability of upstreamness across countries in the OECD STAN database, albeit with a more aggregated industry classification. Finally, we present an application that explores the determinants of the average upstreamness of exports at the country level using trade flows for 2002.

Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms

We present an empirical implementation of a general-equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous manufacturing firms. The theory underlying our model is consistent with Melitz (2003). A nonlinear structural estimation procedure identifies a set of core parameters and unobserved firm-level trade frictions that best fit the geographic pattern of trade. Once the parameters are identified, we utilize a decomposition technique for computing general-equilibrium counterfactuals. We illustrate this technique using trade and protection data from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). We first assess the economic effects of reductions in measured tariffs. Taking the simple-average welfare change across regions the Melitz structure indicates welfare gains from liberalization that are nearly four times larger than in a standard policy simulation model. Furthermore, when we compare the economic impact of tariffs with reductions in estimated fixed trade costs we find that policy measures affecting the fixed costs of firmentry are of greater importance than conventional tariff barriers.

Trade and Welfare: Does Industrial Organization Matter?

Many contemporary theoretic studies of trade over geography reduce to an ex- amination of constant-elasticity reactions to changes in iceberg trade costs. These impacts are readily analyzed in simple constant-returns models based on the Arm- ington (1969) assumption of regionally differentiated goods. Following the line of reasoning suggested by Arkolakis et al. (2008) one can reach the surprising conclu- sion that industrial organization does not matter. In the present paper, we show that this finding is fragile, and with a minor elaboration of their model, the rich industrial-organization features of the popular Melitz (2003) model do, in fact, gen- erate important differences for trade and welfare.Variety effects, Heterogeneous firms, Gains from trade

Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms

We present an empirical implementation of a general-equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous manufacturing firms. The theory underlying our model is consistent with Melitz (2003). A nonlinear structural estimation procedure identifies a set of core parameters and unobserved firm-level trade frictions that best fit the geographic pattern of trade. Once the parameters are identified, we utilize a decomposition technique for computing general-equilibrium counterfactuals. We first assess the economic effects of reductions in measured tariffs. Taking the simple-average welfare change across regions the Melitz structure indicates welfare gains from liberalization that are nearly four times larger than in a standard trade policy simulation. Furthermore, when we compare the economic impact of tariff reductions with reductions in estimated fixed trade costs we find that policy measures affecting the fixed costs are of greater importance than tariff barriers