Bayesian Functional Generalized Additive Models with Sparsely Observed Covariates

The functional generalized additive model (FGAM) was recently proposed in McLean et al. (2013) as a more flexible alternative to the common functional linear model (FLM) for regressing a scalar on functional covariates. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian version of FGAM for the case of Gaussian errors with identity link function. Our approach allows the functional covariates to be sparsely observed and measured with error, whereas the estimation procedure of McLean et al. (2013) required that they be noiselessly observed on a regular grid. We consider both Monte Carlo and variational Bayes methods for fitting the FGAM with sparsely observed covariates. Due to the complicated form of the model posterior distribution and full conditional distributions, standard Monte Carlo and variational Bayes algorithms cannot be used. The strategies we use to handle the updating of parameters without closed-form full conditionals should be of independent interest to applied Bayesian statisticians working with nonconjugate models. Our numerical studies demonstrate the benefits of our algorithms over a two-step approach of first recovering the complete trajectories using standard techniques and then fitting a functional regression model. In a real data analysis, our methods are applied to forecasting closing price for items up for auction on the online auction website eBay

Theory and Phenomenology of Vector Mesons in Medium

Electromagnetic probes promise to be direct messengers of (spectral properties of) hot and dense matter formed in heavy-ion collisions, even at soft momentum transfers essential for characterizing possible phase transitions. We examine how far we have progressed toward this goal by highlighting recent developments, and trying to establish connections between lattice QCD, effective hadronic models and phenomenology of dilepton production.Comment: 8 pages latex incl. 12 ps/eps files; invited plenary talk at Quark Matter 2006 conference, Shanghai (China), Nov. 14-20, 200

Generalized monotonic functional mixed models with application to modelling normal tissue complications

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73586/1/j.1467-9876.2007.00606.x.pd

Angular hadron correlations probing the early medium evolution

Hard processes are a well calibrated probe to study heavy-ion collisions. However, the information to be gained from the nuclear suppression factor R_AA is limited, hene one has to study more differential observables to do medium tomography. The angular correlations of hadrons associated with a hard trigger appear suitable as they show a rich pattern when going from low p_T to high p_T. Of prime interest is the fate of away side partons with an in-medium pathlength O(several fm). At high p_T the correlations become dominated by the punchtrough of the away side parton with subsequent fragmentation. We discuss what information about the medium density can be gained from the data.Comment: Talk given at the 19th International Conference on Ultrarelativistic Nucleus-Nucleus Collisions: Quark Matter 2006 (QM 2006), Shanghai, China, 14-20 Nov 200

Radiative and Collisional Jet Energy Loss in a Quark-Gluon Plasma

We calculate radiative and collisional energy loss of hard partons traversing the quark-gluon plasma created at RHIC and compare the respective size of these contributions. We employ the AMY formalism for radiative energy loss and include additionally energy loss by elastic collisions. Our treatment of both processes is complete at leading order in the coupling, and accounts for the probabilistic nature of jet energy loss. We find that a solution of the Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density distributions of partons is necessary for a complete calculation of the nuclear modification factor $R_{AA}$ for pion production in heavy ion collisions. It is found that the magnitude of $R_{AA}$ is sensitive to the inclusion of both collisional and radiative energy loss, while the average energy is less affected by the addition of collisional contributions. We present a calculation of $R_{AA}$ for $\pi^0$ at RHIC, combining our energy loss formalism with a relativistic (3+1)-dimensional hydrodynamic description of the thermalized medium.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, contributed to Quark Matter 2008, Jaipur, Indi

Hard and soft probe - medium interactions in a 3D hydro+micro approach at RHIC

We utilize a 3D hybrid hydro+micro model for a comprehensive and consistent description of soft and hard particle production in ultra-relativistic heavy-ion collisions at RHIC. In the soft sector we focus on the dynamics of (multi-)strange baryons, where a clear strangeness dependence of their collision rates and freeze-out is observed. In the hard sector we study the radiative energy loss of hard partons in a soft medium in the multiple soft scattering approximation. While the nuclear suppression factor $R_{AA}$ does not reflect the high quality of the medium description (except in a reduced systematic uncertainty in extracting the quenching power of the medium), the hydrodynamical model also allows to study different centralities and in particular the angular variation of $R_{AA}$ with respect to the reaction plane, allowing for a controlled variation of the in-medium path-length.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, Quark Matter 2006 proceedings, to appear in Journal of Physics

Radiative and Collisional Energy Loss, and Photon-Tagged Jets at RHIC

The suppression of single jets at high transverse momenta in a quark-gluon plasma is studied at RHIC energies, and the additional information provided by a photon tag is included. The energy loss of hard jets traversing through the medium is evaluated in the AMY formalism, by consistently taking into account the contributions from radiative events and from elastic collisions at leading order in the coupling. The strongly-interacting medium in these collisions is modelled with (3+1)-dimensional ideal relativistic hydrodynamics. Putting these ingredients together with a complete set of photon-production processes, we present a calculation of the nuclear modification of single jets and photon-tagged jets at RHIC.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, contributed to the 3rd International Conference on Hard and Electro-Magnetic Probes of High-Energy Nuclear Collisions (Hard Probes 2008), typos corrected, published versio