Is there any Link Between Commodity Price and Monetary Policy? Evidence from Australia

The aim of this paper is to examine whether the commodity prices predict inflation, unemployment and short term interest rate in Australia. Advanced time series econometric modeling such as vector autoregressive model, cointegration and granger causality are used for this purpose. The empirical results show that three commodity prices (COMRL, COMNRL and COMBSMTL) precede inflation. However, no evidence of reverse causation is found. These findings have important implication for monetary authority. Inflation targeting experience has so far been hit by positive supply shocks. In case of negative supply shock, commodity price may be useful in singling out the likely direction of inflation.Commodity price; monetary policy; Cointegration; Error correction model; Granger causality test

Moribund SAFTA and trade policy options for South Asia

In response to meager intra-regional trade flow South Asian countries formed their regional trade bloc SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) in 2004 and made operational from 2006.Defying the rhetoric of the leaders and expectation of the masses, this bloc could not make any progress until now. Using panel data over the past thirty years from the seven member states and a random effect methodology that controls for endogenous predictors, the study shows that when gravity related and other variables are controlled for SAFTA turns out to be dysfunctional. The reasons for such failure can be attributed to the thin preferential margins on only a few number of tariff lines whose benefits are evaporated once complying with the rules of origin issue and complicated administrative procedure are taken into account. Moreover appearances of new generations of traded products (e.g. computing and telecommunications equipment) that are sourced from outside the region and changes of demand structure in favor of these commodities have made South Asian trade more outward oriented. Since the “free” trade bloc is not working in South, the paper concludes that alternative trade policy options like unilateral liberalization and seeking for multiple preferential agreements can buttress trade linked growth of the region

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of Australian Dollar: Do Test Procedures Matter?

This article aims to reexamine whether Australia’s real exchange rate is mean reverting in the long run by using quarterly trade weighted indices of real exchange rate data for the period of June 1970 to September 2009. We use the state of the art of several more recent econometric tests for this purpose. The empirical result shows that the non-stationarity of Australia’s real exchange rate cannot be rejected. Thus, our results support the PPP hypothesis in Australia. Our results are contradictory to those of Cuestas and Regis (2008), but conform to those of Darné and Hoarau (2007 and 2008)

Banks’ efficiency and credit risk analysis using by-production approach: the case of Iranian banks

This article uses a by-production approach that integrates credit risk to monitor bank efficiency. The method overcomes the possible misspecification issues of the commonly assumed weak disposability (WDA) of undesirable outputs. In addition, our measure extends the classic by-production approach by including statistical aspects through subsampling techniques. We have also provided an algorithm to correct related infeasibilities. Using this approach, we investigate the performance of Iranian banks and credit risk management in the sector for the period 1998–2012. Non-performing loans (NPLs) have been used as an undesirable output and proxy for credit risk in our models. Based on our empirical results, although the banks generally exhibited efficiency improvements over time, their credit risk performance deteriorated considerably after the regulatory changes introduced in 2005. These findings confirm that credit quality can be monitored more actively across Iranian banks

CAUSALITY AND DYNAMICS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND OUTPUT: EVIDENCE FROM NON-OECD ASIAN COUNTRIES

This article examines the short-run and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and output in six non-OECD Asian developing countries. Standard time series econometrics is used for this purpose. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling, the empirical result shows a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and income in Malaysia, while a unidirectional causality from output to energy consumption in China and Thailand and energy consumption to output in India and Pakistan. Bangladesh remains as an energy neutral economy confirming the fact that it is one of the lowest energy consuming countries in Asia. Both the generalized variance decompositions and the impulse response functions confirm the direction of causality in these countries. These findings have important policy implications for concerned countries. Countries like China and Thailand may contribute to the fight against global warming directly implementing energy conservation measures whereas India and Pakistan may focus on technological developments and mitigation policies. For Malaysia, a balanced combination of alternative policies seems to be appropriate.Energy Conservation, Cointegration, Error Correction Model, Generalized Variance Decompositions, Generalized Impulse Response Functions

How Effective Is The Free Trade Agreement in South Asia? An Empirical Investigation

We investigate the efficacy of preferential trade liberalization in changing the observed trade pattern among the South Asian countries that have entered into the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). Although in its nascent stage, some data are now available to provide an ex-post evaluation of the performance of this bloc. Using these data, we find no empirical evidence of trade creation among SAFTA members, which is not surprising given that tariff concessions in SAFTA are small and are offset by complicated rules of origin procedure. However, a substantial and statistically significant increase in exports from SAFTA members to the rest of the world is found. Several panel strategies are used to check the sensitivity of the results against the assumptions of the estimation strategies. As some key coefficient estimates are found to differ across estimation methods, policymakers in South Asia need to use care in relying on the results from empirical studies, including our own, in formulating their trade policies

Welfare Impacts of Preferential Trade Liberalization in South Asia

Focusing on the global trading relationship aggregated at the level of 15 regions and 10 sectors, we investigate in this paper the welfare effects of preferential trade liberalisation in South Asia from several simulation perspectives. The static version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model shows that countries that are initially more protected (such as India) are likely to capture the lion’s share of the gain from the liberalization scheme. Countries that maintain status quo are the losers; prominent among them are the EU 25 and the North America region. However, these results are dramatically changed in the dynamic version of the GTAP model. In terms of deviations from the baseline scenario, the regional integration policy in South Asia turns out to be net welfare reducing for both the region and the rest of the world

Urbanization, energy consumption, and pollutant emission in Asian developing economies: An empirical analysis

This paper aims to investigate the effects of urbanization, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, trade liberalization, and economic growth on pollutant emissions and energy intensity in selected Asian developing countries from 1980 to 2010. We use both linear and nonlinear panel data econometric techniques and employ the recently introduced mean group estimation methods, allowing for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. However, to check robustness of our panel results, we also apply the autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach to country-level data. In addition, the relationship between affluence and CO2 emissions is examined in the context of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The estimation results identify population, affluence, and non-renewable energy consumption as the main factors in pollutant emissions in Asian countries. However, the results of the EKC hypothesis show that when countries achieve a certain level of economic growth, their emissions tend to decline. Whereas nonlinear results show that renewable energy, urbanization, and trade liberalization reduce emissions, linear estimations do not confirm such outcomes. Thus, substitution of non-renewable for renewable energy consumption, as well as cautious and planned urbanization programs, and more liberal trading regimes may be viable options for the sustainable growth of these emerging Asian economies

The effects of agglomeration economies on technical efficiency of manufacturing firms: evidence from Indonesia

This article examines the effects of agglomeration economies and industrial structure upon firm-level technical efficiency in the Indonesian manufacturing industry over the period 2004–2009. A stochastic production frontier and three channels of agglomeration economies consisting of specialization, diversity and competition are used. The empirical results show that the effects of specialization and diversity upon firm-level technical efficiency are positive and negative, respectively, indicating that specialization is more favourable than diversity for stimulating firms’ technical efficiency. Competition has a positive sign, showing that region with high levels of competition tend to be more conducive in accelerating firm-level technical efficiency. In terms of firm location, both dummy for urban region and industrial complex turn out to be positive, indicating that firms located in both areas are experienced higher technical efficiency. Both firm size and age also have positive effect upon technical efficienc

Does R&D spur productivity growth in Australia’s broadacre agriculture? A semi-parametric smooth coefficient approach

© 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group This article analyses the role of research and development (R & D) in Australia’s broadacre farming by using the semi-parametric smooth coefficient model. While the conventional production function approach only captures the direct effects of R & D, this methodology captures both the direct impact of a change in R & D on output and the indirect impact through changes in efficiency of use of factor inputs in the production process. Moreover, technical inefficiency is introduced in the model allowing it as a function of R & D. Using a unique state-level dataset covering the period 1995–2007, this empirical study finds that once both the direct and indirect effects are taken into consideration, R & D investments significantly increase outputs. The results also show that there are substantial variations in the effects of R & D on output across the state-level average farm through technology parameters as well as through technical inefficiency. Such variations need to be taken into account when designing policies for investing public R & D in agriculture