Long-Term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition and Improved Energy Security in Botswana’s Energy Sector Using the Open-Source Energy Modelling System

This research examines Botswana’s significant reliance on coal and imported fossil fuels for electricity generation, contributing to high carbon emissions and energy insecurity influenced by volatile fuel prices and supply challenges. The study utilizes the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to explore cost-effective renewable energy strategies to meet Botswana’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and enhance energy security by 2050, analysing six scenarios: Least Cost (LC), Business-As-Usual (BAU), Net Zero by 2050 (NZ), Coal Phase Out by 2045 (CPO), Fossil Fuel Phase Out by 2045 (FFPO), and Import Phase Out by 2045 (IMPPO). Our key findings highlight the critical role of solar technologies—photovoltaic (PV), storage, and concentrated solar power (CSP)—in transitioning to a sustainable energy future, especially under the Net Zero and Import Phase Out scenarios. This research demonstrates the economic and environmental benefits of transitioning away from fossil fuels, with the Fossil Fuel Phase Out scenario yielding a USD 31 million saving over the Business-As-Usual approach and reducing investment costs by USD 2 billion, albeit with a slight increase in light fuel oil imports. The study underscores the need for substantial capital investments, particularly in the Net Zero and Import Phase Out scenarios, necessitating private sector financing. Policy recommendations include adopting detailed strategies for solar PV and storage expansion, updating renewable energy targets, phasing out coal and natural gas, and bolstering the regulatory framework. These strategies are crucial for Botswana to achieve decarbonization and energy independence, aligning with global climate goals and national energy security objectives

Addressing Challenges in Long-Term Strategic Energy Planning in LMICs: Learning Pathways in an Energy Planning Ecosystem

This paper presents an innovative approach to addressing critical global challenges in long-term energy planning for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The paper proposes and tests an international enabling environment, a delivery ecosystem, and a community of practice. These components are integrated into workflows that yield four self-sustaining capacity-development outcomes. Planning long-term energy strategies in LMICs is particularly challenging due to limited national agency and poor international coordination. While outsourcing energy planning to foreign experts may appear to be a viable solution, it can lead to a reduction in government agency (the ability of a government to make its own informed analysis and decisions). Additionally, studies commissioned by external experts may have conflicting terms of reference, and a lack of familiarity with local conditions can result in misrepresentations of on-the-ground realities. It is argued here that enhancing national agency and analytical capacity can improve coordination and lead to more robust planning across line ministries and technical assistance (TA) providers. Moreover, the prevailing consulting model hampers the release and accessibility of underlying analytics, making it difficult to retrieve, reuse, and reconstruct consultant outputs. The absence of interoperability among outputs from various consultants hinders the ability to combine and audit the insights they provide. To overcome these challenges, five strategic principles for energy planning in LMICs have been introduced and developed in collaboration with 21 international and research organizations, including the AfDB, IEA, IRENA, IAEA, UNDP, UNECA, the World Bank, and WRI. These principles prioritize national ownership, coherence and inclusivity, capacity, robustness, transparency and accessibility. In this enabling environment, a unique delivery ecosystem consisting of knowledge products and activities is established. The paper focuses on two key knowledge products as examples of this ecosystem: the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) and the power system flexibility tool (IRENA FlexTool). These ecosystem elements are designed to meet user-friendliness, retrievability, reusability, reconstructability, repeatability, interoperability, and audibility (U4RIA) goals. To ensure the sustainability of this ecosystem, OpTIMUS is introduced—a community of practice dedicated to maintaining, supporting, expanding, and nurturing the elements within the ecosystem. Among other ecosystem elements, training and research initiatives are introduced, namely the Energy Modelling Platform for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific as well as the ICTP Joint Summer School on Modelling Tools for Sustainable Development. Once deployed via workflows, the preliminary outcomes of these capacity-development learning pathways show promise. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate their long-term impacts, scalability, replication, and deployment costs

Modelling pathways to energy security in Armenia's electricity sector using OSeMOSYS (OpenSource Energy Modelling System)

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Techno-economic data and assumptions for long-term energy systems modelling in Viet Nam

Viet Nam is at a critical juncture in planning for its future energy mix due to its fast-growing economy and recent climate commitments. Robust modelling analyses examining the potential and practical energy mix alternatives are therefore key in providing key stakeholders with critical information on energy policy decision-making. The challenge is that a large volume of data is required to accurately model various energy pathways at the national scale. This data note, therefore, aims to bridge the current data gap by providing key information on input data and assumptions for long-term energy planning in Viet Nam. Historical and/or projected data regarding electricity generation and consumption, electricity imports and exports, fuel prices, emissions, refineries, power transmission and distribution, electricity generation technologies, and renewable energy potential and reserves for the years 2015 to 2050 are described in this article

Long-Term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition in Egypt’s Energy Sector

Egypt has the potential to generate a significant amount of energy from renewable technologies, in particular solar PV, concentrated solar power (CSP), and onshore and offshore wind. The energy sector is reliant on fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, for electricity production and is at risk of locking itself into a high carbon pathway. Globally, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with national energy sectors is a target outlined in the UN’s Paris Agreement. To reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with a higher dependence on fossil fuels, Egypt must consider upscaling renewable energy technologies (RETs) to achieve a clean energy transition (CET). This research modelled six scenarios using clicSAND for OSeMOSYS to identify the technologies and policy target improvements that are needed to upscale RETs within Egypt’s energy sector. The results showed that solar PV and onshore wind are key technologies to be upscaled to contribute towards Egypt’s CET. The optimal renewable target is the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) target of 53% of electricity being sourced from RETs by 2030, which will cost USD 16.4 billion more up to 2035 than Egypt’s current Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) target of 42% by 2035; it also saves 732.0 MtCO2 over the entire modelling period to 2070. Socio-economic barriers to this transition are considered, such as recent discoveries of natural gas reserves combined with a history of energy insecurity, political instability impacting investor confidence, and a lack of international climate funding. The paper concludes with policy recommendations that would enable Egypt to progress towards achieving a CET

Techno-economic dataset and assumptions for long-term energy systems modelling in the Dominican Republic (2024–2050)

The land transport sector, impacting fossil fuel consumption, has been selected as one of the sectors to apply decarbonization strategies. Energy systems modelling is an applied tool to evaluate scenarios and strategies that can be implemented in the transport sector to achieve energy transitions. These energy modelling tools need a dataset that allows the simulation of alternative scenarios of the systems. For this purpose, a collection and processing of technical-economic data is needed to ensure a quality input for simulation tools. This article presents a set of open data to create a model of the energy system of the Dominican Republic to assess alternative scenarios and develop strategies to achieve the energy transition in the land transport sector. This exercise is performed to support the energy planning policies of the country. Although the dataset is presented for the conditions of the Dominican Republic, the insight regarding data gathering and processing can be applied to other island countries. The data obtained are an open-access database of energy regulators, generation agents, and representatives of the generation, transmission, and distribution sector, as well as websites, databases of international organizations, scientific journals, and standards. Therefore, the data presented can be updated as the technical-economic information becomes public

Evidence-based policymaking: Insights and recommendations for the implementation of clean energy transition pathways for Kenya’s power sector

With ambitious targets to drastically increase economic activity over the next decade, Kenya’s future is undoubtedly energy-intensive. Current power capacity expansion plans will see Kenya considerably ramp up fossil fuel generation, significantly increasing emissions. Therefore, Kenya is at a crucial stage of its national development, with critical decisions to make regarding its future power expansion and production. OSeMOSYS modelling software (clicSAND version v1.1) is employed to produce a series of possible clean energy transition pathways to increase renewable power production under rapidly intensifying demand. This study integrates existing national priorities and policies into six modelled scenarios to provide insights into their generation, total production, and costs, which can assist future policymaking and capacity-building efforts. The high-level insights gained in this research were employed to suggest key recommendations for Kenya’s power sector. Most notably, policy alignment, increased wind power production, energy-efficiency penetration, finance and investment securement, the development of storage technologies, power transmission, and distribution improvements should be prioritised.</p

Designing a zero-order energy transition model: How to create a new Starter Data Kit

The Paris Agreement was signed by 192 Parties, who committed to reducing emissions. Reaching such commitments by developing national decarbonisation strategies requires significant analyses and investment. Analyses for such strategies are often delayed due to a lack of accurate and up-to-date data for creating energy transition models. The Starter Data Kits address this issue by providing open-source, zero-level country datasets to accelerate the energy planning process. There is a strong demand for replicating the process of creating Starter Data Kits because they are currently only available for 69 countries in Africa, Asia, and South America. Using an African country as an example, this paper presents the methodology to create a Starter Data Kit made of tool-agnostic data repositories and OSeMOSYS-specific data files. The paper illustrates the steps involved, provides additional information for conducting similar work in Asia and South America, and highlights the limitations of the current version of the Starter Data Kits. Future development is proposed to expand the datasets, including new and more accurate data and new energy sectors. Therefore, this document provides instructions on the steps and materials required to develop a Starter Data Kit. • The methodology presented here is intended to encourage practitioners to apply it to new countries and expand the current Starter Data Kits library. • It is a novel process that creates data pipelines that feed into a single Data Collection and Manipulation Tool (DaCoMaTool). • It allows for tool-agnostic data creation in a consistent format ready for a modelling analysis using one of the available tools

Addressing Challenges in Long-Term Strategic Energy Planning in LMICs: Learning Pathways in an Energy Planning Ecosystem

Peer reviewed: TrueAcknowledgements: We would like to extend special thanks to Simon Patterson of the #CCG team for his valuable editorial additions, which significantly improved the quality of this paper. Additionally, we would like to acknowledge the contribution of Sarel Greyling, also from the #CCG team, for his outstanding graphic design work, which enhanced the visual presentation of the findings. The initiation and initial running of the Roundtable Process was led by Luca Petrarulo under the Energy for Economic Growth Programme, overseen by Simon Trace. The OpTIMUS community was initiated by Mark Howells and Holger Rogner. The Energy Modelling Platform (EMP) and its Summer Schools were initiated by Mark Howells with the active involvement of Carla Cannone, several members of the division of Energy Systems at KTH (now the division of Energy Systems, including Eunice Ramos, Ioannis Pappis, Vignesh Sridharan, and Constantinos Taliotis), and members of the OnSSET team. Mark Howells also led the development of The ICTP Sustainable Development Summer School. The first EMP (EMP-Europe) was developed in partnership with the European Commission, under the Horizon 2020 REEEM project (Grant Agreement n. 691739), with Mark Howells as Project Coordinator for REEEM. EMP-Europe was organized under WP3 of REEEM led by the Reiner Lemoine Institute (RLI), with key contributions from Berit Müller and Ludwig Hülk (RLI), Francesco Gardumi and Georgios Avgerinopoulos (KTH), and Olavur Ellefsen (TOKNI). EMP-Europe has now become the Energy and Climate Modelling Platform (ECEMP). The EMP Africa was developed with Linus Mofor and Mekalia Paulos Aklilu of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and partners. While EMP for Latin America and the Caribbean was developed with the University of Costa Rica and partners. The EMP for Asia-Pacific is planned for a full launch in 2024.Publication status: PublishedFunder: members of the OpTIMUS communityFunder: Climate Compatible Growth Programme (#CCG) of the UK government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO)This paper presents an innovative approach to addressing critical global challenges in long-term energy planning for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The paper proposes and tests an international enabling environment, a delivery ecosystem, and a community of practice. These components are integrated into workflows that yield four self-sustaining capacity-development outcomes. Planning long-term energy strategies in LMICs is particularly challenging due to limited national agency and poor international coordination. While outsourcing energy planning to foreign experts may appear to be a viable solution, it can lead to a reduction in government agency (the ability of a government to make its own informed analysis and decisions). Additionally, studies commissioned by external experts may have conflicting terms of reference, and a lack of familiarity with local conditions can result in misrepresentations of on-the-ground realities. It is argued here that enhancing national agency and analytical capacity can improve coordination and lead to more robust planning across line ministries and technical assistance (TA) providers. Moreover, the prevailing consulting model hampers the release and accessibility of underlying analytics, making it difficult to retrieve, reuse, and reconstruct consultant outputs. The absence of interoperability among outputs from various consultants hinders the ability to combine and audit the insights they provide. To overcome these challenges, five strategic principles for energy planning in LMICs have been introduced and developed in collaboration with 21 international and research organizations, including the AfDB, IEA, IRENA, IAEA, UNDP, UNECA, the World Bank, and WRI. These principles prioritize national ownership, coherence and inclusivity, capacity, robustness, transparency and accessibility. In this enabling environment, a unique delivery ecosystem consisting of knowledge products and activities is established. The paper focuses on two key knowledge products as examples of this ecosystem: the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) and the power system flexibility tool (IRENA FlexTool). These ecosystem elements are designed to meet user-friendliness, retrievability, reusability, reconstructability, repeatability, interoperability, and audibility (U4RIA) goals. To ensure the sustainability of this ecosystem, OpTIMUS is introduced—a community of practice dedicated to maintaining, supporting, expanding, and nurturing the elements within the ecosystem. Among other ecosystem elements, training and research initiatives are introduced, namely the Energy Modelling Platform for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific as well as the ICTP Joint Summer School on Modelling Tools for Sustainable Development. Once deployed via workflows, the preliminary outcomes of these capacity-development learning pathways show promise. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate their long-term impacts, scalability, replication, and deployment costs.</jats:p

Addressing challenges in long-term strategic energy planning in LMICs: learning pathways in an energy planning ecosystem

This paper presents an innovative approach to addressing critical global challenges in long-term energy planning for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The paper proposes and tests an international enabling environment, a delivery ecosystem, and a community of practice. These components are integrated into workflows that yield four self-sustaining capacity-development outcomes. Planning long-term energy strategies in LMICs is particularly challenging due to limited national agency and poor international coordination. While outsourcing energy planning to foreign experts may appear to be a viable solution, it can lead to a reduction in government agency (the ability of a government to make its own informed analysis and decisions). Additionally, studies commissioned by external experts may have conflicting terms of reference, and a lack of familiarity with local conditions can result in misrepresentations of on-the-ground realities. It is argued here that enhancing national agency and analytical capacity can improve coordination and lead to more robust planning across line ministries and technical assistance (TA) providers. Moreover, the prevailing consulting model hampers the release and accessibility of underlying analytics, making it difficult to retrieve, reuse, and reconstruct consultant outputs. The absence of interoperability among outputs from various consultants hinders the ability to combine and audit the insights they provide. To overcome these challenges, five strategic principles for energy planning in LMICs have been introduced and developed in collaboration with 21 international and research organizations, including the AfDB, IEA, IRENA, IAEA, UNDP, UNECA, the World Bank, and WRI. These principles prioritize national ownership, coherence and inclusivity, capacity, robustness, transparency and accessibility. In this enabling environment, a unique delivery ecosystem consisting of knowledge products and activities is established. The paper focuses on two key knowledge products as examples of this ecosystem: the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) and the power system flexibility tool (IRENA FlexTool). These ecosystem elements are designed to meet user-friendliness, retrievability, reusability, reconstructability, repeatability, interoperability, and audibility (U4RIA) goals. To ensure the sustainability of this ecosystem, OpTIMUS is introduced—a community of practice dedicated to maintaining, supporting, expanding, and nurturing the elements within the ecosystem. Among other ecosystem elements, training and research initiatives are introduced, namely the Energy Modelling Platform for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific as well as the ICTP Joint Summer School on Modelling Tools for Sustainable Development. Once deployed via workflows, the preliminary outcomes of these capacity-development learning pathways show promise. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate their long-term impacts, scalability, replication, and deployment costs.</p