Understanding ground conditions can save time and money. Dr Kate Royse explains why geology still has a key role to play in the regeneration of the Thames Gateway

The 40-mile stretch of land along the River Thames that forms the Thames Gateway is the focus for the biggest building programme to be undertaken in the UK for over 50 years. The key areas for redevelopment have already been chosen, so one might reasonably ask, “Geology -why consider it now?” The answer is straightforward. For the most part the key development areas have been selected primarily on the basis of socio-economic factors. However, environmental issues – sustainable urban drainage, biodiversity, flood control and foundation conditions – remain important considerations, for which an understanding of the geology can be critica

Using geological data to answer environmental questions

Kate Royse Director for Environmental Modelling at the British Geological Survey details how the types of geological data are changing in response to policy makers needing to answer ever more complex environmental questions

Battlegrounds of environmental change

The Thames catchment encompasses one of Europe’s largest cities, the UK’s principal aquifer, an extensive zone of coastal interaction and much else. It presents a unique conjunction of geological, hydrogeological, environmental and socio-economic factors that are intrinsically linked by the effects of environmental change and the pressures of developmen

Key challenges and opportunities facing the geospatial information industry: a view from the British Geological Survey

The British Geological Survey has a bold new strategy to instrument the earth. What does that mean in terms of data and specifically geospatial information? In essence the survey is going to be moving from concentrating on the solid subsurface to monitoring processes below the ground in real time. This will necessitate not just the instrumentation of subsurface boreholes but also the use of satellite measurements and real-time monitoring of natural hazards. The drive for this monitoring is to enable us to model, predict and mitigate the impacts of environmental change. To do this effectively will mean that we will need to look at novel ways to visualise and communicate our data to nonspecialist users and combine our geological data with data from other sectors. Making use of mobile platforms and open data will provide us with many opportunities as well as some significant challenges over the next five years. These can be grouped into 3 areas discussed on the following pages

Improving the discovery and re-use of hazard models – the PURE Portal

The Probability Uncertainty and Risk in the Environment (PURE) network is an action that has been prioritised by NERC in order to increase the impact of NERC Natural Hazards Research and to take a national leadership role in changing the way in which uncertainty and risk are assessed and quantified across the natural hazards community. Running in parallel with the PURE research programme a requirement was identified by the PURE project board to increase the level of sharing and re-use of hazard models. This provides an important knowledge exchange facility and help to ensure maximum exposure for NERC funded models. The PURE portal consists of a web interface underpinned by a model metadata database. Whilst there are many metadata catalogues and repositories for spatial data sets, e.g. data.gov.uk, the same is not the case for process models. Zaslavsky et al (2014) review five existing ones which mainly contain model codes, examples include the US-based CSDMS model catalogue (Peckham et al., 2014) and the TESS model funded by the EU which was created to store metadata for ecosystem management. In the UK, the FluidEarth 2 catalogue holds metadata on linkable models (Harpham et al., 2014). The PURE portal is specifically designed to hold metadata for both model code and model instance for Hazard models and their implementations created within the research community

The Influence Of Particle Size And Frictional/Cohesional Shear Strength Components On UK Salt Marsh Substrate Stability

Salt marshes and tidal flats contribute valuable ecosystem services, by providing habitats, storing pollutants and reducing flood and erosion risk in the coastal hinterland. However, salt marsh areal extent is decreasing both globally and regionally (e.g. in Northwest Europe). While we know that salt marshes are retreating, this could be occurring due to biological, geochemical and geotechnical properties of the marsh and tidal flat, and/or due to changes in hydrodynamic forcing. Until now, very few studies have assessed how substrate geotechnical properties influence both the erosion processes and the erodibility of the marsh edge and tidal flat surface. Here, we compare frictional and cohesional strength components at two hydrodynamically-similar but sedimentologically-different salt marshes and tidal flats in the UK. As such, we assess how sediment composition and behavior may influence marsh resistance to hydrodynamic forcing.This work was funded by a NERC PhD studentship (LCAG/329; 2016-2020), and a Collaborative Award in Science and Engineering with the British Geological Survey (LCAG/352)

An illustrative ‘plug & play’ catastrophe model for groundwater flooding

Economic losses from natural catastrophes are substantial; e.g., US$130 billion in 2010. ‘Catastrophe models’ are stochastic event-set based models that simulate these risks and underpin their assessment in the insurance industry. Most catastrophe models are proprietary ’black boxes’, which limit the level of user interaction, but new regulations (Solvency II) require firms to understand better the assumptions upon which the calculations ultimately rest. Part of this greater transparency requires constraining where uncertainty originates, perhaps by interchanging components provided by rival model vendors in ’plug and play’ catastrophe models. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a practical, accessible way in which this may be made possible. Specifically to do this the first, illustrative ‘plug and play’ model was created efficiently and effectively using OpenMI, a free ‘open-source’ model linking standard. In about 100 man-hours climate, groundwater flow, vulnerability, exposure and loss components were linked to output financial losses, i.e. occurrence exceedance probability (OEP) curves. Groundwater flooding near Marlborough (UK) is used for this proof of concept. Losses from this example dataset are small, about £.8 million for a 33 yr OEP, but groundwater is an important compounding factor in UK flooding and this is the first, albeit rudimentary, attempt to probabilistically model loss for this hazard. Selected components are swopped, and losses calculated to show how insights into the origin of uncertainty can be gained. Crucially, OpenMI has the future potential to operate online and shield valuable data within components whilst allowing them to be swopped. So, it has the potential to underpin a secure, open-source, practical framework of use to the insurance industry

Geotechnical Properties of Salt Marsh and Tidal Flat Substrates at Tillingham, Essex, UK.

Salt marshes and, to a lesser extent, tidal flats, attenuate incoming hydrodynamic energy, thus reducing flood and erosion risk in the coastal hinterland. However, marshes are declining in aerial extent both globally and regionally (e.g. the Northwest European region). In order to comprehend why a reduction in salt marsh extent due to marsh edge erosion is occurring, we need to understand the resistance of salt marshes to incoming hydrodynamic energy. This resistance depends on marsh biological, geochemical and geotechnical properties. However, there currently exists no systematic study of marsh geotechnical properties and how these may impact both marsh edge and marsh surface erosion processes (e.g. surface removal, cliff undercutting, gravitational slumping). This has led to an oversimplification of marsh evolution models. Here, we present the initial results of a systematic study of salt marsh and tidal flat geotechnical properties (shear strength, plasticity and particle size) at Tillingham marsh, Essex, UK.Department of Geograph

Erodibility of salt marsh sediments under storm-surge conditions

Salt marshes are unique habitats that provide diverse ecosystem services including coastal protection during storm conditions in addition to storing carbon from the atmosphere. The loss of salt marshes is a worrying phenomenon on a global scale and little is known about their likely response, in terms of likelihood of erosion, to predicted increases in storminess. We investigated the relationships between hydrodynamic forcing and the erosion of intertidal sediments during high-magnitude events in the Large Wave Flume (GWK) facility in Hannover. A range of different intertidal sediments (sandy to clay-silt rich) were extracted from the field and exposed to a variety of true-to-scale simulation of storm conditions (inundation depth and wave height combinations). Sediment surfaces were exposed both horizontally and vertically to investigate sediment mobilisation from marsh platforms or mudflats and marsh edge scarps respectively. We use structure-from-motion and laser scanning to quantify volumetric changes of the sediment surfaces and micro-CT scanning to characterise the internal structure of the sediments. We find erosion of sediment surfaces exposed under water depths commonly found during storm surge events to be minimal despite maximum bed velocities during the highest simulated energy conditions exceeding those recorded in field studies during storm conditions. For horizontal surfaces, the introduction of micro-topographic features through sculpting of the sediment surface is shown to increase the sediment volumes eroded. For vertical faces, sediment erosion was greatest when exposed at mean water level rather than at depth. A strong contrast in behaviour is also seen between sediment types. We conclude that marsh sediments, both on the surface and at the margin, are likely to be relatively stable under storm surge conditions, despite significant hydrodynamic forcing. We find that sediment is mobilised when turbulence is introduced through the interaction between wave-driven near-bed current velocities and the bed characteristics themselves (e.g. micro-topography). These interactions are dependent on, inter alia, the elevation of the water level relative to the exposed surface. This suggests a strong feedback between landform structure and morphodynamic response for given conditions and implies that low-frequency, high-magnitude events may be less significant contributors to marsh erosion than more secular processes

Food Insecurity Prevalence Across Diverse Sites During COVID-19: A Year of Comprehensive Data

Key Findings NFACT includes 18 study sites in 15 states as well as a national poll, collectively representing a sample size of more than 26,000 people. Some sites have implemented multiple survey rounds, here we report results from 22 separate surveys conducted during the year since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020. 18 out of 19 surveys in 14 sites with data for before and since the pandemic began found an increase in food insecurity since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as compared to before the pandemic. In nearly all surveys (18/19) that measured food insecurity both before and during the pandemic, more Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) were classified as food insecure during the pandemic as compared to before it began. Prevalence of food insecurity for BIPOC respondents was higher than the overall population in the majority of surveys (19/20) sampling a general population. In almost all surveys (21/22), the prevalence of food insecurity for households with children was higher than the overall prevalence of food insecurity. Food insecurity prevalence was higher for households experiencing a negative job impact during the pandemic (i.e. job loss, furlough, reduction in hours) in nearly all surveys and study sites (21/22). Food insecurity prevalence in most sites was significantly higher before COVID-19 than estimates from that time period. Reporting a percent change between pre and during COVID-19 prevalence may provide additional information about the rate of change in food insecurity since the start of the pandemic, which absolute prevalence of food insecurity may not capture. Results highlight consistent trends in food insecurity outcomes since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, across diverse study sites, methodological approaches, and time