Who Wants to Return Home? A Survey of Sudanese Refugees in Kakuma, Kenya

With the goal of better understanding some of the psychological factors related to refugees’ desire to return home, surveys were administered to 235 South Sudanese refugees living in the Kakuma Refugee Camp in Kenya. Respondents were asked about how much they wanted to return to Sudan, their emotional reactions about returning, their views on the prospects for peace, their expectations regarding how they would be received upon return, and their concerns about specific challenges they might face. In addition, they completed an inventory measuring their personal beliefs about issues in five domains: vulnerability, injustice, distrust, superiority, and helplessness in regard to prospective returnees to Sudan. A large majority was very eager to repatriate. Individual differences in attitudes toward returning were significantly linked to the strength of their beliefs in the five domains. Stronger beliefs about vulnerability, injustice, distrust, and helplessness were associated with more negative perceptions of return, while a stronger belief about returnee superiority was correlated with a more favourable perspective on repatriation.Dans le but de mieux comprendre quelques-uns des facteurs psychologiques liés au désir des réfugiés de retourner chez eux, des enquêtes ont été conduites auprès de 235 réfugiés originaires du sud Soudan et vivant dans le camp de réfugiés de Kakuma, au Kenya. On posa aux répondants des questions sur l’intensité de leur désir de retourner au Soudan, leurs réactions émotionnelles par rapport à toute la question du retour, leur point de vue sur les perspectives pour la paix, leurs attentes quant à la façon dont ils seraient reçus au retour, et leurs préoccupations quant aux défis spécifiques qui pourraient les confronter. En plus, ils complétèrent aussi un inventaire de personnalité permettant d’évaluer leurs croyances personnelles sur des questions relatives à cinq domaines : la vulnérabilité, l’injustice, la méfiance, la supériorité, et le sentiment d’impuissance par rapport aux éventuels candidats au retour au Soudan. La grande majorité était très désireuse de rentrer au pays. Les différences individuelles dans les attitudes par rapport au retour étaient étroitement liées à l’intensité de leur croyance dans les cinq domaines. Une croyance plus forte dans la vulnérabilité, l’injustice, la méfiance, et le sentiment d’impuissance était associée à des perceptions plutôt négatives sur le retour, alors qu’une croyance plus forte quant à la supériorité du réfugié revenant chez lui était corrélée avec une perspective plus favorable sur le retour

Modeling Factions for \u27Effects Based Operations\u27: Part I Leader and Follower Behaviors

This paper presents a synthetic approach for generating role playing simulation games intended to support analysts (and trainees) interested in testing alternative competing courses of action (operations) and discovering what effects they are likely to precipitate in potential ethno-political conflict situations. Simulated leaders and followers capable of playing these games are implemented in a cognitive modeling framework, called PMFserv, which covers value systems, personality and cultural factors, emotions, relationships, perception, stress/coping style and decision making. Of direct interest, as Sect. 1.1 explains, is mathematical representation and synthesis of best-of-breed behavioral science models within this framework to reduce dimensionality and to improve the realism and internal validity of the agent implementations. Sections 2 and 3 present this for leader profiling instruments and group membership decision-making, respectively. Section 4 serves as an existence proof that the framework has generated several training and analysis tools, and Sect. 5 concludes with lessons learned. Part II turns to the question of assessment of the synthesis and its usage in course of action studies

Socio-Cultural Games for Training and Analysis

This paper presents a theory for role playing simulation games intended to support analysts (and trainees) with generating and testing alternative competing hypotheses on how to influence world conflict situations. Simulated leaders and followers capable of playing these games are implemented in a cognitive modeling framework, called PMFserv, which covers value systems, personality and cultural factors, emotions, relationships, perception, stress/coping style and decision making. Of direct interest, as Section 1.1 explains, is codification and synthesis of best-of-breed social science models within PMFserv to improve the internal validity of the agent implementations. Sections 2 and 3 present this for leader profiling instruments and group membership decision-making, respectively. Section 4 then offers two real world case studies (The Third Crusade and SE Asia today) where the agent models are subjected to Turing and correspondence tests under each case study. In sum, substantial effort on game realism, best-of-breed social science models, and agent validation efforts is essential if analysis and training tools are to help explore cultural issues and alternative ways to influence outcomes. Such exercises, in turn, are likely to improve the state of the science as well

Interoperable human behavior models for simulations

Modern simulations and games have limited capabilities for simulated characters to interact with each other and with humans in rich, meaningful ways. Although significant achievements have been made in developing human behavior models (HBMs) that are able to control a single simulated entity (or a single group of simulated entities), a limiting factor is the inability of HBMs developed by different groups to interact with each other. We present an architecture and multi-level message framework for enabling HBMs to communicate with each other about their actions and their intents, and describe the results of our crowd control demonstration system which applied it to allow three distinct HBMs to interoperate within a single training-oriented simulation. Our hope is that this will encourage the development of standards for interoperability among HBMs which will lead to the development of richer training and analysis simulations.Postprint (author’s final draft

Socio-Cultural Games for Training and Analysis

This paper presents a theory for role playing simulation games intended to support analysts (and trainees) with generating and testing alternative competing hypotheses on how to influence world conflict situations. Simulated leaders and followers capable of playing these games are implemented in a cognitive modeling framework, called PMFserv, which covers value systems, personality and cultural factors, emotions, relationships, perception, stress/coping style and decision making. Of direct interest, as Section 1.1 explains, is codification and synthesis of best-of-breed social science models within PMFserv to improve the internal validity of the agent implementations. Sections 2 and 3 present this for leader profiling instruments and group membership decision-making, respectively. Section 4 then offers two real world case studies (The Third Crusade and SE Asia today) where the agent models are subjected to Turing and correspondence tests under each case study. The agent models are then used in a number of sensitivity and parameter elasticity studies. We observe the emergence of a ‘civil rights ’ demand curve that correlates with real world data about when followers will shift from phases of peaceful to vigorous protest to insurgency against a leader. In sum, substantial effort on game realism, best-of-breed social science models, and agent validation efforts is essential if analysis and training tools are to help explore cultural issues and alternative ways to influence outcomes. Such exercises, in turn, are likely to improve the state of the science as well