Geographic profiling applied to testing models of bumble-bee foraging

Geographical profiling (GP) was originally developed as a statistical tool to help police forces prioritize lists of suspects in investigations of serial crimes. GP uses the location of related crime sites to make inferences about where the offender is most likely to live, and has been extremely successful in criminology. Here, we show how GP is applicable to experimental studies of animal foraging, using the bumble-bee Bombus terrestris. GP techniques enable us to simplify complex patterns of spatial data down to a small number of parameters (2-3) for rigorous hypothesis testing. Combining computer model simulations and experimental observation of foraging bumble-bees, we demonstrate that GP can be used to discriminate between foraging patterns resulting from (i) different hypothetical foraging algorithms and (ii) different food item (flower) densities. We also demonstrate that combining experimental and simulated data can be used to elucidate animal foraging strategies: specifically that the foraging patterns of real bumble-bees can be reliably discriminated from three out of nine hypothetical foraging algorithms. We suggest that experimental systems, like foraging bees, could be used to test and refine GP model predictions, and that GP offers a useful technique to analyse spatial animal behaviour data in both the laboratory and field

Understanding the origins of the ring-necked parakeet in the UK

The ring‐necked parakeet Psittacula krameri is one of the best‐known invasive species in the UK. It is also arguably the species whose origins as an invasive have been the subject of the greatest speculation, with explanations ranging from birds escaping from the set of the film ‘The African Queen’ to animals being released in Carnaby Street in London by Jimi Hendrix in the 1960s. Here, we use geographic profiling – a statistical technique originally developed in criminology to prioritise the large lists of suspects typical in cases of serial crime such as murder, rape and arson, but more recently applied to ecology and conservation biology – to analyse the spatial patterns of the ring‐necked parakeet, from the first detailed records in the 1960s to the 21st century and ask whether spatial analysis supports these hypotheses. We show that, despite the undoubted appeal of the different hypotheses concerning their origin, spatial analysis provides no support for any of them, leading us to conclude that the birds' establishment in Britain is more likely to be a consequence of repeated releases and introductions, a view supported by a detailed search of the British Newspaper Archive. More generally, our study shows how geographic profiling can be used to understand the spatial patterns of biological invasions over time