The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests

The scapegoat theory of exchange rates (2 and 5) suggests that market participants may attach excessive weight to individual economic fundamentals, which are picked as �scapegoats� to rationalize observed currency fluctuations at times when exchange rates are driven by unobservable shocks. Using novel survey data that directly measure foreign exchange scapegoats for 12 exchange rates, we find empirical evidence that supports the scapegoat theory. The resulting models explain a large fraction of the variation and directional changes in exchange rates in sample, although their out-of-sample forecasting performance is mixed

Habitual intake of flavonoid subclasses and risk of colorectal cancer in two large prospective cohorts

Background: Flavonoids inhibit the growth of colon cancer cells in vitro. In a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial, the Polyp Prevention Trial, a higher intake of one sub-class, flavonols, was significantly associated with reduced risk of recurrent advanced adenoma. Most previous prospective studies on colorectal cancer evaluated only a limited number of flavonoid sub-classes and intake ranges, yielding inconsistent results.  Objective: To examine whether higher habitual dietary intakes of flavonoid subclasses (flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols and anthocyanins) are associated with lower risk of colorectal cancer.  Design: Using data from validated food frequency questionnaires administered every four years and an updated flavonoid food composition database flavonoid intakes were calculated for 42,478 male participants from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and for 76,364 female participants from the Nurses’ Health Study.  Results: During up to 26 years of follow-up, 2,519 colorectal cancer cases (1,061 in men, 1,458 in women) were documented. Intakes of flavonoid subclasses were not associated with risk of colorectal cancer in either cohort. Pooled multivariable adjusted relative risks (95% confidence interval) comparing the highest with the lowest quintile were 1.04 (0.91, 1.18) for flavonols; 1.01 (0.89, 1.15) for flavones; 0.96 (0.84, 1.10) for flavanones; 1.07 (0.95, 1.21) for flavan-3-ols; and 0.98 (0.81, 1.19) for anthocyanins (all p-values for heterogeneity by sex >0.19). In subsite analyses, flavonoid intake was also not associated with colon or rectal cancer risk.  Conclusion: Our findings do not support the hypothesis that a higher habitual intake of any flavonoid sub-class decreases the risk of colorectal cancer

Baryon Acoustic Oscillations in the Ly{\alpha} forest of BOSS DR11 quasars

We report a detection of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature in the flux-correlation function of the Ly{\alpha} forest of high-redshift quasars with a statistical significance of five standard deviations. The study uses 137,562 quasars in the redshift range $2.1\le z \le 3.5$ from the Data Release 11 (DR11) of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) of SDSS-III. This sample contains three times the number of quasars used in previous studies. The measured position of the BAO peak determines the angular distance, $D_A(z=2.34)$ and expansion rate, $H(z=2.34)$, both on a scale set by the sound horizon at the drag epoch, $r_d$. We find $D_A/r_d=11.28\pm0.65(1\sigma)^{+2.8}_{-1.2}(2\sigma)$ and $D_H/r_d=9.18\pm0.28(1\sigma)\pm0.6(2\sigma)$ where $D_H=c/H$. The optimal combination, $\sim D_H^{0.7}D_A^{0.3}/r_d$ is determined with a precision of $\sim2\%$. For the value $r_d=147.4~{\rm Mpc}$, consistent with the CMB power spectrum measured by Planck, we find $D_A(z=2.34)=1662\pm96(1\sigma)~{\rm Mpc}$ and $H(z=2.34)=222\pm7(1\sigma)~{\rm km\,s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}}$. Tests with mock catalogs and variations of our analysis procedure have revealed no systematic uncertainties comparable to our statistical errors. Our results agree with the previously reported BAO measurement at the same redshift using the quasar-Ly{\alpha} forest cross-correlation. The auto-correlation and cross-correlation approaches are complementary because of the quite different impact of redshift-space distortion on the two measurements. The combined constraints from the two correlation functions imply values of $D_A/r_d$ and $D_H/r_d$ that are, respectively, 7% low and 7% high compared to the predictions of a flat $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model with the best-fit Planck parameters. With our estimated statistical errors, the significance of this discrepancy is $\approx 2.5\sigma$.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A. 17 pages, 18 figure

Epilepsy Center Characteristics and Geographic Region Influence Presurgical Testing in the United States

bjective Persons with drug‐resistant epilepsy may benefit from epilepsy surgery and should undergo presurgical testing to determine potential candidacy and appropriate intervention. Institutional expertise can influence use and availability of evaluations and epilepsy surgery candidacy. This census survey study aims to examine the influence of geographic region and other center characteristics on presurgical testing for medically intractable epilepsy. Methods We analyzed annual report and supplemental survey data reported in 2020 from 206 adult epilepsy center directors and 136 pediatric epilepsy center directors in the United States. Test utilization data were compiled with annual center volumes, available resources, and US Census regional data. We used Wilcoxon rank‐sum, Kruskal–Wallis, and chi‐squared tests for univariate analysis of procedure utilization. Multivariable modeling was also performed to assign odds ratios (ORs) of significant variables. Results The response rate was 100% with individual element missingness \u3c 11% across 342 observations undergoing univariate analysis. A total of 278 complete observations were included in the multivariable models, and significant regional differences were present. For instance, compared to centers in the South, those in the Midwest used neuropsychological testing (OR = 2.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2–6.86; p = .018) and fluorodeoxyglucose–positron emission tomography (OR = 2.74, 95% CI = = 1.14–6.61; p = .025) more commonly. For centers in the Northeast (OR = .46, 95% CI = .23–.93; p = .031) and West (OR = .41, 95% CI = .19–.87; p = .022), odds of performing single‐photon emission computerized tomography were lower by nearly 50% compared to those in the South. Center accreditation level, demographics, volume, and resources were also associated with varying individual testing rates. Significance Presurgical testing for drug‐resistant epilepsy is influenced by US geographic region and other center characteristics. These findings have potential implications for comparing outcomes between US epilepsy centers and may inject disparities in access to surgical treatment

Association Between Characteristics of National Association of Epilepsy Centers and Reported Utilization of Specific Surgical Techniques

Background and Objective Nearly one-third of persons with epilepsy will continue having seizures despite trialing multiple antiseizure medications. Epilepsy surgery may be beneficial in these cases, and evaluation at a comprehensive epilepsy center is recommended. Numerous palliative and potentially curative approaches exist, and types of surgery performed may be influenced by center characteristics. This article describes epilepsy center characteristics associated with epilepsy surgery access and volumes in the United States. Methods We analyzed National Association of Epilepsy Centers 2019 annual report and supplemental survey data obtained with responses from 206 adult epilepsy center directors and 136 pediatric epilepsy center directors in the United States. Surgical treatment volumes were compiled with center characteristics, including US Census region. We used multivariable modeling with zero-inflated Poisson regression models to present ORs and incidence rate ratios of receiving a given surgery type based on center characteristics. Results The response rate was 100% with individual element missingness less than 4% across 352 observations undergoing univariate analysis. Multivariable models included 319 complete observations. Significant regional differences were present. The rates of laser interstitial thermal therapy (LITT) were lower at centers in the Midwest (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.74, 95% CI 0.59–0.92; p = 0.006) and Northeast (IRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.61–0.96; p = 0.022) compared with those in the South. Conversely, responsive neurostimulation implantation rates were higher in the Midwest (IRR 1.45, 95% CI 1.1–1.91; p = 0.008) and West (IRR 1.91, 95% CI 1.49–2.44; p \u3c 0.001) compared with the South. Center accreditation level, institution type, demographics, and resources were also associated with variations in access and rates of potentially curative and palliative surgical interventions. Discussion Epilepsy surgery procedure volumes are influenced by US epilepsy center region and other characteristics. These variations may affect access to specific surgical treatments for persons with drug resistant epilepsy across the United States

Religious Identity, Religious Attendance, and Parental Control

Using a national sample of adolescents aged 10–18 years and their parents (N = 5,117), this article examines whether parental religious identity and religious participation are associated with the ways in which parents control their children. We hypothesize that both religious orthodoxy and weekly religious attendance are related to heightened levels of three elements of parental control: monitoring activities, normative regulations, and network closure. Results indicate that an orthodox religious identity for Catholic and Protestant parents and higher levels of religious attendance for parents as a whole are associated with increases in monitoring activities and normative regulations of American adolescents

Measurement of Angular Distributions and R= sigma_L/sigma_T in Diffractive Electroproduction of rho^0 Mesons

Production and decay angular distributions were extracted from measurements of exclusive electroproduction of the rho^0(770) meson over a range in the virtual photon negative four-momentum squared 0.5< Q^2 <4 GeV^2 and the photon-nucleon invariant mass range 3.8< W <6.5 GeV. The experiment was performed with the HERMES spectrometer, using a longitudinally polarized positron beam and a ^3He gas target internal to the HERA e^{+-} storage ring. The event sample combines rho^0 mesons produced incoherently off individual nucleons and coherently off the nucleus as a whole. The distributions in one production angle and two angles describing the rho^0 -> pi+ pi- decay yielded measurements of eight elements of the spin-density matrix, including one that had not been measured before. The results are consistent with the dominance of helicity-conserving amplitudes and natural parity exchange. The improved precision achieved at 47 GeV, reveals evidence for an energy dependence in the ratio R of the longitudinal to transverse cross sections at constant Q^2.Comment: 15 pages, 15 embedded figures, LaTeX for SVJour(epj) document class Revision: Fig. 15 corrected, recent data added to Figs. 10,12,14,15; minor changes to tex

Beam-Induced Nuclear Depolarisation in a Gaseous Polarised Hydrogen Target

Spin-polarised atomic hydrogen is used as a gaseous polarised proton target in high energy and nuclear physics experiments operating with internal beams in storage rings. When such beams are intense and bunched, this type of target can be depolarised by a resonant interaction with the transient magnetic field generated by the beam bunches. This effect has been studied with the HERA positron beam in the HERMES experiment at DESY. Resonances have been observed and a simple analytic model has been used to explain their shape and position. Operating conditions for the experiment have been found where there is no significant target depolarisation due to this effect.Comment: REVTEX, 6 pages, 5 figure

Measurement of the Spin Asymmetry in the Photoproduction of Pairs of High-pT Hadrons at HERMES

We present a measurement of the longitudinal spin asymmetry A_|| in photoproduction of pairs of hadrons with high transverse momentum p_T. Data were accumulated by the HERMES experiment using a 27.5 GeV polarized positron beam and a polarized hydrogen target internal to the HERA storage ring. For h+h- pairs with p_T^h_1 > 1.5 GeV/c and p_T^h_2 > 1.0 GeV/c, the measured asymmetry is A_|| = -0.28 +/- 0.12 (stat.) +/- 0.02 (syst.). This negative value is in contrast to the positive asymmetries typically measured in deep inelastic scattering from protons, and is interpreted to arise from a positive gluon polarization.Comment: 5 pages (latex), 4 figures (eps