The Relative Efficiency of Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from a Social Experiment and Non-Parametric Methods

We re-analyze the effects of a Danish active labour market program social experiment that included a range of sub-treatments, including monitoring, job search assistance and training. Previous studies have shown that the overall effect of the experiment is positive. We apply newly developed non-parametric methods to determine which of the individual policies that explains the positive effect. The use of non-parametric methods to separate sub-treatment effects is important from a methodological point of view, since the alternative, namely parametric/distributional assumptions, is in conflict with the concept of experimental evidence. Our results are highly relevant in a policy perspective, as optimal labour market policy design requires knowledge on the effectiveness of specific policy measures.active labour market policy, treatment effect, non-parametric bounds

A Danish Profiling System

We describe the statistical model used for profiling new unemployed workers in Denmark. When a worker - during his or her first six months in unemployment - enters the employment office for the first time, this model predicts whether he or she will be unemployed for more than six months from that date or not. The case workers’ assessment of how to treat the person is partially based upon this prediction.unemployment duration; profiling

Home Ownership, Job Duration, and Wages

We investigate the impact of home ownership on individual job mobility and wages in Denmark. We find that home ownership has a negative impact on job-to-job mobility both in terms of transition into new local jobs and new jobs outside the local labour market. In addition, there is a clear negative effect of home ownership on the unemployment risk and a positive impact on wages. These results are robust to different strategies for correcting for the possible endogeneity of the home owner variable.home ownership; job mobility; duration model

Employment Effects of Dispersal Policies on Refugee Immigrants: Theory

This paper formulates a partial search model in which unemployed individuals simultaneously search for job and location of residence. Most importantly, we show that, ceteris paribus, a decrease in current place utility increases the transition rate into a new location of residence and the transition rate into employment outside the local labour market, but decreases the transition rate into local employment. Thus, a decrease in current place utility decreases the overall job-finding rate if the local reservation wage effect dominates. We argue that dispersal policies on refugee immigrants are characterised by low average values of current place utility. Hence, the model predicts that dispersal policies increase the geographical mobility rates of refugees and, for a sufficiently large local reservation wage effect, decrease their job-finding rates.Job Search; Residential Search; Geographical Mobility; Dispersal Policy on Refugees

Employment Effects of Spatial Dispersal of Refugees

Spatial dispersal policies may influence labour market integration of refugees through two mechanisms. First, it may affect the local job offer arrival rate, and second, it may affect place utility. We investigate the second mechanism theoretically by formulating a partial search model in which an individual searches simultaneously for a job and for a new residential location. The model predicts that the reservation wage for local jobs is decreasing in place utility. We argue that spatial dispersal policies decrease average place utility of refugees which decrease the transition rate into first job due to large local reservation wage effects. We investigate both mechanisms empirically and test the predictions of the theoretical model by evaluating the employment effects of the Danish spatial dispersal policy carried out 1986-1998.spatial dispersal policy; job search; residential search; employment; migration

Looking Beyond the Bridge: How Temporary Agency Employment Affects Labor Market Outcomes

We perform a comprehensive analysis of the stepping-stone effect of temporary agency employment on unemployed workers. Using the timing-of-events approach, we not only investigate whether agency employment is a bridge into regular employment but also analyze its effect on post-unemployment wages and job stability for unemployed Danish workers. We find evidence of large positive treatment effects, particularly for immigrants. There is also some indication that higher treatment intensity increases the likelihood of leaving unemployment for regular jobs. Our results show that agency employment is even more effective in tight labor markets, where firms use agency employment primarily to screen potential candidates for permanent posts. Finally, our results suggest that agency employment may improve subsequent match quality in terms of wages and job duration.temporary agency employment, stepping stone, employment stability, wages

An Analysis of the Processes of Labour Market Exclusion and (Re-) Inclusion

In this paper we analyze the processes of labour market exclusion and (re-) inclusion, using a Danish register-based data set covering the period 1981-1990. The analysis is performed by estimation of reduced form transition models, the parameters of which are interpreted within the framework of search theory mixed with social psychological theories regarding unemployment and labour market exclusion. The main findings of the study are that low levels of education and working experience are associated with an increased risk of labour market exclusion. However, for the labour market (re-) inclusion process, human capital variables are not important. There is indirect evidence of psychological damaging and/or stigma effects of unemployment and nonparticipation. There is also evidence of budget constraints that eventually lead to decreasing reservation wages or increasing search intensity, as unemployment spells become very long. We discuss some policy implications of our findings

Employment Effects of Spatial Dispersal of Refugees

We argue that spatial dispersal policies on refugees and asylum seekers influence labour market assimilation of refugees through two mechanisms: first, the local job offer arrival rate and, second, place utility. Our partial search model with simultaneous job and residential location search predicts that the reservation wage for local jobs decreases with place utility. We argue that spatial dispersal decreases average place utility of refugees which decreases the transition rate into first job due to large local reservation wages. We investigate both mechanisms empirically and test the predictions of the theoretical model by evaluating the employment effects of the Danish spatial dispersal policy carried out 1986-1998.Migration

Looking Beyond the Bridge: How Temporary Agency Employment Affects Labor Market Outcomes

We perform a comprehensive analysis of the stepping-stone effect of temporary agency employment on unemployed workers. Using the timing-of-events approach, we not only investigate whether agency employment is a bridge into regular employment but also analyze its effect on post-unemployment wages and job stability for unemployed Danish workers. We find evidence of large positive treatment effects, particularly for immigrants. There is also some indication that higher treatment intensity increases the likelihood of leaving unemployment for regular jobs. Our results show that agency employment is even more effective in tight labor markets, where firms use agency employment primarily to screen potential candidates for permanent posts. Finally, our results suggest that agency employment may improve subsequent match quality in terms of wages and job duration.temporary agency employment; stepping stone; employment stability; wages

Do case workers help the unemployed?

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries spend, on average, an equivalent of 0.4% of their gross domestic product on active and passive labor market policies. This is a non-negligible sum, especially in times of strained government budgets. Meetings with case workersâwho can provide advice and information on what jobs to look for, and how to search, and give moral support, as well as monitor search intensityâare a simple and effective option for policymakers to help the unemployed find work