The Decline and Rise of Interstate Migration in the United States: Evidence from the IPUMS, 1850-1990

We examine evidence on trends in interstate migration over the past 150 years, using data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series of the U.S. Census (IPUMS). Two measures of migration are calculated. The first considers an individual to have moved if she is residing in a state different from her state of birth. The second considers a family to have moved if it is residing in a state different from the state of birth of one of its young children. The latter measure allows us estimate the timing of moves more accurately. Our results suggest that overall migration propensities have followed a U-shaped trend since 1850, falling until around 1900 and then rising until around 1970. We examine variation in the propensity to make an interstate move by age, sex, race, nativity, region of origin, family structure, and education. Counterfactuals based on probit estimates of the propensity to migrate suggest that the rise in migration of families since 1900 is largely attributable to increased educational attainment. The decline of interstate migration in the late nineteenth century remains to be explained.

The Sources of Regional Variation in the Severity of the Great Depression: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing, 1919-1937

The impact of the Great Depression was milder in the South Atlantic states, more severe in the Mountain states, and surprisingly uniform across other regions of the country —despite large diiferences in industrial structure. Employing data on 20 manufacturing industries disaggregated by state, we analyze the relative contributions of industry mix and location to regional variations in economic performance. Industrial composition had a significant impact on employment growth, with regions that concentrated on durable goods or inputs to construction faring worse than others. Long-run trends also mattered, and explain much of the South Atlantic's more favorable performance

Predicting the outcomes of treatment to eradicate the latent reservoir for HIV-1

Massive research efforts are now underway to develop a cure for HIV infection, allowing patients to discontinue lifelong combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). New latency-reversing agents (LRAs) may be able to purge the persistent reservoir of latent virus in resting memory CD4+ T cells, but the degree of reservoir reduction needed for cure remains unknown. Here we use a stochastic model of infection dynamics to estimate the efficacy of LRA needed to prevent viral rebound after ART interruption. We incorporate clinical data to estimate population-level parameter distributions and outcomes. Our findings suggest that approximately 2,000-fold reductions are required to permit a majority of patients to interrupt ART for one year without rebound and that rebound may occur suddenly after multiple years. Greater than 10,000-fold reductions may be required to prevent rebound altogether. Our results predict large variation in rebound times following LRA therapy, which will complicate clinical management. This model provides benchmarks for moving LRAs from the lab to the clinic and can aid in the design and interpretation of clinical trials. These results also apply to other interventions to reduce the latent reservoir and can explain the observed return of viremia after months of apparent cure in recent bone marrow transplant recipients and an immediately-treated neonate.Comment: 8 pages main text (4 figures). In PNAS Early Edition http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/08/05/1406663111. Ancillary files: SI, 24 pages SI (7 figures). File .htm opens a browser-based application to calculate rebound times (see SI). Or, the .cdf file can be run with Mathematica. The most up-to-date version of the code is available at http://www.danielrosenbloom.com/reboundtimes

Labor-Market Regimes in U.S. Economic History

In much economic analysis it is a convenient fiction to suppose that changes over time in wages and employment are determined by shifts in supply or demand within a more or less competitive market framework Indeed, this framework has been effectively deployed to understand many episodes in American economic history. We argue here, however, that by minimizing the role of labor-market institutions such an approach is incomplete. Drawing on the history of American labor markets over two centuries, we argue that institutions--by which we mean both formal and informal rules that constrain the choices of economic agents--have played a significant role in the determination of wages, employment and other market outcomes over time. The historical evolution of American labor markets can best be characterized as a sequence of relatively stable arrangements punctuated by shifts in institutional regimes. Our narrative emphasizes the importance of understanding the historically contingent role of institutional regimes in conditioning the operation of supply and demand in empirical and policy analysis of the labor market.

Mobility patterns of the elderly tourist in Algarve

The present work is part of the Project for Scientific Research and Techno-logical Development "Accessibility for All in Tourism" focuses on modal in-terfaces designed according to the concepts of "Universal Design" and "Age Sensitive Design". In this project 851 surveys were carried out for elderly tourists, who arrived in Algarve (Portugal) through the international Airport of Faro, in the summer of 2018, with a view to understanding their prefer-ences and needs in terms of mobility. It presents the characterization of the senior tourist in Algarve, according to: gender, age, academic qualification, situation in the relation to the profession, nationality, disability and/or disa-bilities that affects mobility and the need to use technical aids to move. It analyses and compares, from the point of view of sustainable mobility, the mobility of the elderly tourist, by gender and age group, in the country where they reside and in the Algarve region. This information is useful for local au-thorities and for transport operators in order to make the mobility of elderly tourists, in Algarve, more sustainable from a social, economic and environ-mental standpoint.The Research Project ACCES4ALL - Accessibility for All in Tourisminfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Growth hormone receptor deficiency (Laron syndrome) in black African siblings

Non-Caucasians with growth honnone receptor (GHR) deficiency/Laron syndrome among the approximately 180 recognised cases are rare, and include a Japanese and 3 African Americans. Black African siblings, a brother and a sister seen initially at 11 years 9 months and 5 years 6 months of age respectively were -7,4 and -8,0 on the standard deviation score for height. They had characteristic features and biochemical findings including prominent forehead; depressed nasal bridge; central adiposity; high-pitched voices; micropenis; high GH levels and low levels of insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I, IGF-II, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3), and GH-binding protein (the solubilised extracellular domain of the GH cell surface receptor). Molecular genetic studies revealed a dinucleotide deletion in both siblings on exon 7 of the GHR gene, a mutation not found in any other G.HR-deficient patient studied, including the North Americans of African origin. Since African Americans have a substantial admixture of Caucasian genes, it is of interest to document the presence of this condition in siblings from Afric

Academic Chemistry Inputs and Outcomes Data

The Academic Chemistry Inputs and Outcomes Data assembles panel data on academic chemistry inputs and outputs for 147 universities from 1989 through 2009. Each observation represents a single university-year and includes information on numbers of publications, citations to these publications, levels of federal and non-federal R&D funding, numbers of faculty, postdoctoral researchers, doctorates awarded and institutional characteristics. The data were compiled for the analysis of the determinants of university publication behavior and its relationship to research funding as reported in Joshua L. Rosenbloom, Donna K. Ginther, Ted Juhl and Joseph Heppert, "The Effects of Research & Development Funding on Scientific Productivity: Academic Chemistry, 1990-2009," Public Library of Science One, available in KU ScholarWorks at http://hdl.handle.net/1808/20057. As described in the Data Description and Code Book, these data were assembled by linking together information from a number of publicly available data sources and combining them with proprietary data on publications and citations provided by Thomson Reuters from their Web of Science database. These data are available to download as a text file (.csv) and as a STATA (.dta) data file. Anyone is free to use these data for scholarly purposes, but must include a citation to this user guide in any papers or published articles that employ these data

Life cycle synchronization is a viral drug resistance mechanism

Viral infections are one of the major causes of death worldwide, with HIV infection alone resulting in over 1.2 million casualties per year. Antiviral drugs are now being administered for a variety of viral infections, including HIV, hepatitis B and C, and influenza. These therapies target a specific phase of the virus’s life cycle, yet their ultimate success depends on a variety of factors, such as adherence to a prescribed regimen and the emergence of viral drug resistance. The epidemiology and evolution of drug resistance have been extensively characterized, and it is generally assumed that drug resistance arises from mutations that alter the virus’s susceptibility to the direct action of the drug. In this paper, we consider the possibility that a virus population can evolve towards synchronizing its life cycle with the pattern of drug therapy. The periodicity of the drug treatment could then allow for a virus strain whose life cycle length is a multiple of the dosing interval to replicate only when the concentration of the drug is lowest. This process, referred to as “drug tolerance by synchronization”, could allow the virus population to maximize its overall fitness without having to alter drug binding or complete its life cycle in the drug’s presence. We use mathematical models and stochastic simulations to show that life cycle synchronization can indeed be a mechanism of viral drug tolerance. We show that this effect is more likely to occur when the variability in both viral life cycle and drug dose timing are low. More generally, we find that in the presence of periodic drug levels, time-averaged calculations of viral fitness do not accurately predict drug levels needed to eradicate infection, even if there is no synchronization. We derive an analytical expression for viral fitness that is sufficient to explain the drug-pattern-dependent survival of strains with any life cycle length. We discuss the implications of these findings for clinically relevant antiviral strategies

Cognitive architectures as Lakatosian research programmes: two case studies

Cognitive architectures - task-general theories of the structure and function of the complete cognitive system - are sometimes argued to be more akin to frameworks or belief systems than scientific theories. The argument stems from the apparent non-falsifiability of existing cognitive architectures. Newell was aware of this criticism and argued that architectures should be viewed not as theories subject to Popperian falsification, but rather as Lakatosian research programs based on cumulative growth. Newell's argument is undermined because he failed to demonstrate that the development of Soar, his own candidate architecture, adhered to Lakatosian principles. This paper presents detailed case studies of the development of two cognitive architectures, Soar and ACT-R, from a Lakatosian perspective. It is demonstrated that both are broadly Lakatosian, but that in both cases there have been theoretical progressions that, according to Lakatosian criteria, are pseudo-scientific. Thus, Newell's defense of Soar as a scientific rather than pseudo-scientific theory is not supported in practice. The ACT series of architectures has fewer pseudo-scientific progressions than Soar, but it too is vulnerable to accusations of pseudo-science. From this analysis, it is argued that successive versions of theories of the human cognitive architecture must explicitly address five questions to maintain scientific credibility