Extremes on the discounted aggregate claims in a time dependent risk model

This paper presents an extension of the classical compound Poisson risk model for which the inter-claim time and the forthcoming claim amount are no longer independent random variables (rv's). Asymptotic tail probabilities for the discounted aggregate claims are presented when the force of interest is constant and the claim amounts are heavy tail distributed rv's. Furthermore, we derive asymptotic finite time ruin probabilities, as well as asymptotic approximations for some common risk measures associated with the discounted aggregate claims. A simulation study is performed in order to validate the results obtained in the free interest risk model

Work-related stress and well-being in association with epigenetic age acceleration: a Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 Study

Recent evidence indicates consistent association of low socioeconomic status with epigenetic age acceleration, measured from DNA methylation. As work characteristics and job stressors are crucial components of socioeconomic status, we investigated their association with various measures of epigenetic age acceleration. The study population included employed and unemployed men and women (n=604) from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966. We investigated the association of job strain, effort-reward imbalance and work characteristics with five biomarkers of epigenetic aging (Hannum, Horvath, PhenoAge, GrimAge, and DunedinPoAm). Our results indicate few significant associations between work stress indicators and epigenetic age acceleration, limited to a range of ±2 years, and smoking recording the highest effect on GrimAge age acceleration biomarker between current and no smokers (median difference 4.73 years (IQR 1.18, 8.41). PhenoAgeAA was associated with job strain active work (β=-1.301 95%CI -2.391, -0.212), slowing aging of less than 1.5 years, and working as white-collar slowed aging six months (GrimAgeAA β=-0.683, 95%CI -1.264, -0.102) when compared to blue collars. Association was found for working for more than 40 hours per week that increased the aging over 1.5 years, (HorvathAA β =2.058 95%CI 0.517,3.599, HannumAA β=1.567, 95%CI 0.415,2.719). The pattern of associations was different between women and men and some of the estimated effects are inconsistent with current literature. Our results provide the first evidence of association of work conditions with epigenetic aging biomarkers. However, further epidemiological research is needed to fully understand how work-related stress affects epigenetic age acceleration in men and women in different societies

Search for intracranial aneurysm susceptibility gene(s) using Finnish families

BACKGROUND: Cerebrovascular disease is the third leading cause of death in the United States, and about one-fourth of cerebrovascular deaths are attributed to ruptured intracranial aneurysms (IA). Epidemiological evidence suggests that IAs cluster in families, and are therefore probably genetic. Identification of individuals at risk for developing IAs by genetic tests will allow concentration of diagnostic imaging on high-risk individuals. We used model-free linkage analysis based on allele sharing with a two-stage design for a genome-wide scan to identify chromosomal regions that may harbor IA loci. METHODS: We previously estimated sibling relative risk in the Finnish population at between 9 and 16, and proceeded with a genome-wide scan for loci predisposing to IA. In 85 Finnish families with two or more affected members, 48 affected sibling pairs (ASPs) were available for our genetic study. Power calculations indicated that 48 ASPs were adequate to identify chromosomal regions likely to harbor predisposing genes and that a liberal stage I lod score threshold of 0.8 provided a reasonable balance between detection of false positive regions and failure to detect real loci with moderate effect. RESULTS: Seven chromosomal regions exceeded the stage I lod score threshold of 0.8 and five exceeded 1.0. The most significant region, on chromosome 19q, had a maximum multipoint lod score (MLS) of 2.6. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence for the locations of genes predisposing to IA. Further studies are necessary to elucidate the genes and their role in the pathophysiology of IA, and to design genetic tests

Sonically-enhanced widgets: comments on Brewster and Clarke, ICAD 1997

This paper presents a review of the research surrounding the paper “The Design and Evaluation of a Sonically Enhanced Tool Palette” by Brewster and Clarke from ICAD 1997. A historical perspective is given followed by a discussion of how this work has fed into current developments in the area

Doubtful outcome of the validation of the Rome II questionnaire: validation of a symptom based diagnostic tool

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Questionnaires are used in research and clinical practice. For gastrointestinal complaints the Rome II questionnaire is internationally known but not validated. The aim of this study was to validate a printed and a computerized version of Rome II, translated into Swedish. Results from various analyses are reported.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Volunteers from a population based colonoscopy study were included (n = 1011), together with patients seeking general practice (n = 45) and patients visiting a gastrointestinal specialists' clinic (n = 67). The questionnaire consists of 38 questions concerning gastrointestinal symptoms and complaints. Diagnoses are made after a special code. Our validation included analyses of the translation, feasibility, predictability, reproducibility and reliability. Kappa values and overall agreement were measured. The factor structures were confirmed using a principal component analysis and Cronbach's alpha was used to test the internal consistency.</p> <p>Results and Discussion</p> <p>Translation and back translation showed good agreement. The questionnaire was easy to understand and use. The reproducibility test showed kappa values of 0.60 for GERS, 0.52 for FD, and 0.47 for IBS. Kappa values and overall agreement for the predictability when the diagnoses by the questionnaire were compared to the diagnoses by the clinician were 0.26 and 90% for GERS, 0.18 and 85% for FD, and 0.49 and 86% for IBS. Corresponding figures for the agreement between the printed and the digital version were 0.50 and 92% for GERS, 0.64 and 95% for FD, and 0.76 and 95% for IBS. Cronbach's alpha coefficient for GERS was 0.75 with a span per item of 0.71 to 0.76. For FD the figures were 0.68 and 0.54 to 0.70 and for IBS 0.61 and 0.56 to 0.66. The Rome II questionnaire has never been thoroughly validated before even if diagnoses made by the Rome criteria have been compared to diagnoses made in clinical practice.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The accuracy of the Swedish version of the Rome II is of doubtful value for clinical practice and research. The results for reproducibility and reliability were acceptable but the outcome of the predictability test was poor with IBS as an exception. The agreement between the digital and the paper questionnaire was good.</p

Impact of gastroesophageal reflux disease on work absenteeism, presenteeism and productivity in daily life: a European observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The RANGE (<it>R</it>etrospective <it>AN</it>alysis of <it>G</it>astro<it>E</it>sophageal reflux disease [GERD]) study assessed differences among patients consulting a primary care physician due to GERD-related reasons in terms of: symptoms, diagnosis and management, response to treatment, and effects on productivity, costs and health-related quality of life. This subanalysis of RANGE determined the impact of GERD on productivity in work and daily life.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>RANGE was conducted at 134 primary care sites across six European countries (Germany, Greece, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK). All subjects (aged ≥18 years) who consulted with their primary care physician over a 4-month identification period were screened retrospectively, and those consulting at least once for GERD-related reasons were identified (index visit). From this population, a random sample was selected to enter the study and attended a follow-up appointment, during which the impact of GERD on productivity while working (absenteeism and presenteeism) and in daily life was evaluated using the self-reported Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire for patients with GERD (WPAI-GERD).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, 373,610 subjects consulted with their primary care physician over the 4-month identification period, 12,815 for GERD-related reasons (3.4%); 2678 randomly selected patients attended the follow-up appointment. Average absenteeism due to GERD was highest in Germany (3.2 hours/week) and lowest in the UK (0.4 hours/week), with an average of up to 6.7 additional hours/week lost due to presenteeism in Norway. The average monetary impact of GERD-related work absenteeism and presenteeism were substantial in all countries (from €55/week per employed patient in the UK to €273/patient in Sweden). Reductions in productivity in daily life of up to 26% were observed across the European countries.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>GERD places a significant burden on primary care patients, in terms of work absenteeism and presenteeism and in daily life. The resulting costs to the local economy may be substantial. Improved management of GERD could be expected to lessen the impact of GERD on productivity and reduce costs.</p

Effects of permafrost aggradation on peat properties as determined from a pan-arctic synthesis of plant macrofossils

©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1002/2015JG003061Permafrost dynamics play an important role in high-latitude peatland carbon balance and are key to understanding the future response of soil carbon stocks. Permafrost aggradation can control the magnitude of the carbon feedback in peatlands through effects on peat properties. We compiled peatland plant macrofossil records for the northern permafrost zone (515 cores from 280 sites) and classified samples by vegetation type and environmental class (fen, bog, tundra and boreal permafrost, thawed permafrost). We examined differences in peat properties (bulk density, carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and organic matter content, C/N ratio) and C accumulation rates among vegetation types and environmental classes. Consequences of permafrost aggradation differed between boreal and tundra biomes, including differences in vegetation composition, C/N ratios, and N content. The vegetation composition of tundra permafrost peatlands was similar to permafrost-free fens, while boreal permafrost peatlands more closely resembled permafrost-free bogs. Nitrogen content in boreal permafrost and thawed permafrost peatlands was significantly lower than in permafrost-free bogs despite similar vegetation types (0.9% versus 1.5% N). Median long-term C accumulation rates were higher in fens (23 g C m-2 y-1) than in permafrost-free bogs (18 g C m-2 y-1), and were lowest in boreal permafrost peatlands (14 g C m-2 y-1). The plant macrofossil record demonstrated transitions from fens to bogs to permafrost peatlands, bogs to fens, permafrost aggradation within fens, and permafrost thaw and re-aggradation. Using data synthesis, we've identified predominant peatland successional pathways, changes in vegetation type, peat properties, and C accumulation rates associated with permafrost aggradation.National Science FoundationUSGS Climate and Land-useChange Research and Development ProgramAcademy of FinlandRoyal Swedish Academy of ScienceYmer-80, Knut & Alice Wallenberg and Ahlmann Foundation

Expected impact of MRI-related interreader variability on ProScreen prostate cancer screening trial: a pre-trial validation study

Background: The aim of this study is to investigate the potential impact of prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) -related interreader variability on a population-based randomized prostate cancer screening trial (ProScreen). Methods: From January 2014 to January 2018, 100 men aged 50-63 years with clinical suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa) in Helsinki University Hospital underwent MRI. Nine radiologists individually reviewed the pseudonymized MRI scans of all 100 men in two ProScreen trial centers. All 100 men were biopsied according to a histological composite variable comprising radical prostatectomy histology (N = 38) or biopsy result within 1 year from the imaging (N = 62). Fleiss' kappa (kappa) was used to estimate the combined agreement between all individual radiologists. Sample data were subsequently extrapolated to 1000-men subgroups of the ProScreen cohort. Results: Altogether 89% men of the 100-men sample were diagnosed with PCa within a median of 2.4 years of follow-up. Clinically significant PCa (csPCa) was identified in 76% men. For all PCa, mean sensitivity was 79% (SD +/- 10%, range 62-96%), and mean specificity 60% (SD +/- 22%, range 27-82%). For csPCa (Gleason Grade 2-5) MRI was equally sensitive (mean 82%, SD +/- 9%, range 67-97%) but less specific (mean 47%, SD +/- 20%, range 21-75%). Interreader agreement for any lesion was fair (kappa 0.40) and for PI-RADS 4-5 lesions it was moderate (kappa 0.60). Upon extrapolating these data, the average sensitivity and specificity to a screening positive subgroup of 1000 men from ProScreen with a 30% prevalence of csPCa, 639 would be biopsied. Of these, 244 men would be true positive, and 395 false positive. Moreover, 361 men would not be referred to biopsy and among these, 56 csPCas would be missed. The variation among the radiologists was broad as the least sensitive radiologist would have twice as many men biopsied and almost three times more men would undergo unnecessary biopsies. Although the most sensitive radiologist would miss only 2.6% of csPCa (false negatives), the least sensitive radiologist would miss every third. Conclusions: Interreader agreement was fair to moderate. The role of MRI in the ongoing ProScreen trial is crucial and has a substantial impact on the screening process.Peer reviewe

Expected impact of MRI-related interreader variability on ProScreen prostate cancer screening trial: a pre-trial validation study

Background: The aim of this study is to investigate the potential impact of prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) -related interreader variability on a population-based randomized prostate cancer screening trial (ProScreen). Methods: From January 2014 to January 2018, 100 men aged 50-63 years with clinical suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa) in Helsinki University Hospital underwent MRI. Nine radiologists individually reviewed the pseudonymized MRI scans of all 100 men in two ProScreen trial centers. All 100 men were biopsied according to a histological composite variable comprising radical prostatectomy histology (N = 38) or biopsy result within 1 year from the imaging (N = 62). Fleiss' kappa (kappa) was used to estimate the combined agreement between all individual radiologists. Sample data were subsequently extrapolated to 1000-men subgroups of the ProScreen cohort. Results: Altogether 89% men of the 100-men sample were diagnosed with PCa within a median of 2.4 years of follow-up. Clinically significant PCa (csPCa) was identified in 76% men. For all PCa, mean sensitivity was 79% (SD +/- 10%, range 62-96%), and mean specificity 60% (SD +/- 22%, range 27-82%). For csPCa (Gleason Grade 2-5) MRI was equally sensitive (mean 82%, SD +/- 9%, range 67-97%) but less specific (mean 47%, SD +/- 20%, range 21-75%). Interreader agreement for any lesion was fair (kappa 0.40) and for PI-RADS 4-5 lesions it was moderate (kappa 0.60). Upon extrapolating these data, the average sensitivity and specificity to a screening positive subgroup of 1000 men from ProScreen with a 30% prevalence of csPCa, 639 would be biopsied. Of these, 244 men would be true positive, and 395 false positive. Moreover, 361 men would not be referred to biopsy and among these, 56 csPCas would be missed. The variation among the radiologists was broad as the least sensitive radiologist would have twice as many men biopsied and almost three times more men would undergo unnecessary biopsies. Although the most sensitive radiologist would miss only 2.6% of csPCa (false negatives), the least sensitive radiologist would miss every third. Conclusions: Interreader agreement was fair to moderate. The role of MRI in the ongoing ProScreen trial is crucial and has a substantial impact on the screening process.Peer reviewe

Cosmological Backreaction from Perturbations

We reformulate the averaged Einstein equations in a form suitable for use with Newtonian gauge linear perturbation theory and track the size of the modifications to standard Robertson-Walker evolution on the largest scales as a function of redshift for both Einstein de-Sitter and Lambda CDM cosmologies. In both cases the effective energy density arising from linear perturbations is of the order of 10^-5 the matter density, as would be expected, with an effective equation of state w ~ -1/19. Employing a modified Halofit code to extend our results to quasilinear scales, we find that, while larger, the deviations from Robertson-Walker behaviour remain of the order of 10^-5.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures; replaced by version accepted by JCA