Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund

We present stochastic forecasts of the Social Security trust fund by modeling key demographic and economic variables as historical time series, and using the fitted models to generate computer simulations of future fund performance. We evaluate several plans for achieving long-term solvency by raising the normal retirement age (NRA), increasing taxes, or investing some portion of the fund in the stock market. Stochastic population trajectories by age and sex are generated using the Lee-Carter and Lee- Tuljapurkar mortality and fertility models. Interest rates, wage growth and equities returns are modeled as vector autoregressive processes. With the exception of mortality, central tendencies are constrained to the Intermediate assumptions of the 2002 Trustees Report. Combining population forecasts with forecasted per-capita tax and benefit profiles by age and sex, we obtain inflows to and outflows from the fund over time, resulting in stochastic fund trajectories and distributions. Under current legislation, we estimate the chance of insolvency by 2038 to be 50%, although the expected fund balance stays positive until 2041. An immediate 2% increase in the payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 14.4% sustains a positive expected fund balance until 2078, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2064. Investing 60% of the fund in the S&P 500 by 2015 keeps the expected fund balance positive until 2060, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2042. An increase in the NRA to age 69 by 2024 keeps the expected fund balance positive until 2047, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2041. A combination of raising the payroll tax to 13.4%, increasing the NRA to 69 by 2024, and investing 25% of the fund in equities by 2015 keeps the expected fund balance positive past 2101 with a 50% chance of solvency through 2077.

EXPLANATION OF THE BASIC FORMULA PRICE PROVISIONS OF THE PROPOSED RULE

An important segment of milk marketing order reform involves replacing the current BFP. This working paper explains the background of the BFP issue, the options considered and the provisions of the proposed rule as related to the BFP issue.Marketing,

DEVELOPMENT OF BASIC FORMULA PRICE POLICY: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S.-CANADIAN TRADE ISSUES

Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,

ESTIMATED IMPACT OF NON-PRICE COORDINATION OF FED CATTLE PURCHASES ON MEAT PACKER PROCESSING COSTS

Stochastic simulation of daily slaughter level was used in conjunction with an estimated packing plant cost curve to assess potential reductions in processing costs due to improved vertical coordination between feedlots and packing plants. Results indicate that processing cost reductions of $1 to$5 per head may be possible. Savings result from ensuring a more stable processing volume that is near the plant's cost-minimizing level of production.cattle, cost curve, meat packing, vertical coordination, Industrial Organization, Livestock Production/Industries,

SOUTHERN FARMERS EXPOSURE TO INCOME RISK UNDER THE 1996 FARM BILL

Arguably, since the 1930s, what farmers produced has been markedly influenced by farm programs. The 1996 farm bill affects farmers in terms of what they produce and their level of risk exposure. This paper investigates the farm level impacts of the 1996 farm bill on the South. Focus group perceptions of risk sources, observed acreage changes, and the farm level impact of increased price risk are evaluated.Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance,

A Bayesian Network Estimation of the Service-Profit Chain for Transport Service Satisfaction

Bayesian network methodology is used to model key linkages of the service-profit chain within the context of transportation service satisfaction. Bayesian networks offer some advantages for implementing managerially focused models over other statistical techniques designed primarily for evaluating theoretical models. These advantages are (1) providing a causal explanation using observable variables within a single multivariate model, (2) analysis of nonlinear relationships contained in ordinal measurements, (3) accommodation of branching patterns that occur in data collection, and (4) the ability to conduct probabilistic inference for prediction and diagnostics with an output metric that can be understood by managers and academics. Sample data from 1,101 recent transport service customers are utilized to select and validate a Bayesian network and conduct probabilistic inference

EVALUATION OF "FINAL" FOUR BASIC FORMULA PRICE OPTIONS

Demand and Price Analysis,

Key Equations in the Tuljapurkar-Lee Model of the Social Security System

N/A

Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water Concentrations in California Waterbodies from 2001 to 2017

The objective of this study was to summarize and map bifenthrin sediment and water column monitoring data from California waterbodies (2001–2017) and determine where detected bifenthrin concentrations were reported and potential toxicity to aquatic biota may exist. Bifenthrin sediment data based on targeted sampling in depositional areas were available for more sites (982) than water column data (716 sites), and sediment sites had a lower percent of nondetected concentrations (36%) when compared with water values (77%). Comparison of results from three ambient sediment toxicity tests from sediment sites and six ambient toxicity tests from water sites showed no toxicity from 43% of the sediment sites and 65% of the water sites. A comparison of sediment measurements with acute toxicity data from two test species (Hyalella azteca and Chironomus tentans) showed no toxicity at 80–99.5% of the sites. Bifenthrin total water concentrations compared with a proposed 2015 chronic criterion of 0.01 ng/L showed no exceedances at 77% of the sites. Due to the conservative assumptions used in this analysis, bifenthrin ecological risk to aquatic life in California water bodies from both sediment exposure based on only targeted sampling from depositional areas and water column exposures based on using only total concentrations (not the bioavailable phase) is generally judged to be low statewide