9,351 research outputs found
Explaining the Mechanism of Growth in the Past Two Million Years Vol. I
Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000
years are extensively examined. Data are found to be in a clear contradiction
of the currently accepted explanations of the mechanism of growth, which
revolve around two fundamental but incorrect doctrines: (1) the doctrine of
stagnation (inappropriately labelled also as Malthusian stagnation, because
Malthus never claimed that his positive checks would cause a long-lasting and
wide-spread stagnation) and (2) the doctrine of explosion described also as a
takeoff, sprint, spike or by other similar attributes. These doctrines and
other related postulates are contradicted even by precisely the same data,
which are used in the economic research and by the research results published
in a prestigious scientific journal as early as in 1960. The generally accepted
explanations are not based on a rigorous analysis of data but on impressions
created by the easily misleading features of hyperbolic distributions. Two
leading theories: the Demographic Transitions Theory (or Model) and the Unified
Growth Theory are fundamentally incorrect. Descriptions of the past
socio-economic conditions are not questioned. They might have been harsh,
difficult and primitive but they are not reflected in the growth trajectories.
They did not create stagnation in the economic growth and in the growth of
population. Likewise, impacts of the Industrial Revolution on many aspects of
life are not questioned. It is only demonstrated that this event had absolutely
no impact on shaping growth trajectories. A general law of growth is formulated
and used to explain the mechanism of growth of human population and of economic
growth. The growth was predominantly hyperbolic. Such a growth is described by
exceptionally simple mathematical function and the explanation of the mechanism
of growth turns out to be also simple.Comment: 85 pages, 44,161 words. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap
with arXiv:1708.08673, arXiv:1601.07291, arXiv:1601.04686, arXiv:1510.00992,
arXiv:1603.01685, arXiv:1509.0661
Extinction of megafauna: How could the research get so wrong?
Published evidence for the human-mediated extinction of megafauna is examined
and is found to be unsubstantiated. It is shown that the claimed evidence is
not based on data describing the growth of human population but on the
fabricated data. However, even these fabricated data, which were claimed to
support the human-induced extinction of megafauna, contradict this claim. The
belief in the human-induced extinction of megafauna appears to be so strong
that even contradicting evidence based on the fabricated data is interpreted as
the evidence supporting this belief.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, 3859 word
Demographic Transition Theory Contradicted Repeatedly by Data
In the absence of convincing evidence, data for Sweden and Mauritius are used
in academic publications to illustrate the Demographic Transition Theory. These
data are closely examined and found to be in clear contradiction of this
theory. Demographic Transition Theory is also contradicted by the best
available data for England. Other examples of contradicting evidence are also
discussed.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures, 8796 word
Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Economic Growth in Asia
Historical economic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) is analysed. It is shown
that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used (but
not analysed) during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does
not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of
Malthusian stagnation, which did not exist and it explains the mechanism of the
transition from stagnation to growth that did not happen. The data show that
the economic growth in Asia was never stagnant but hyperbolic. The alleged
dramatic takeoff around 1900 or around any other time did not happen. However,
the theory contains also a dangerous and strongly-misleading concept that after
a long epoch of stagnation we have now entered the epoch of sustained economic
growth, the concept creating the sense of security. The opposite is true. After
the epoch of sustained and secure economic growth we have now entered the epoch
of a fast-increasing and insecure economic growth.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures, 3848 word
Computer simulations of the extinction of megafauna
Computer simulations carried out by Alroy (2001) are examined. Contrary to
the claim of their Author, there is no convincing evidence that the extinction
of megafauna was caused by humans. Intentionally or unintentionally, attempt
was made to force the human-induced extinction of megafauna by assuming an
absurdly fast growth of the hypothetical human population in North America. The
assumed growth rate was around two-orders of magnitude larger than normally
expected. It is well known that the past growth of human population was slow,
but in these simulations, the growth of the hypothetical human population was
unreasonably fast. However, even under this unreasonable assumption about the
growth of human population, computer simulations do not support the postulate
of human-assisted extinction of megafauna because there is no clear correlation
between the growth of the hypothetical human population and the distributions
describing the decline in the population of megafauna.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure, 4411 words. This version contains new information
about the growth of human populatio
Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the GDP/cap Data
Mathematical properties of the historical GDP/cap distributions are discussed
and explained. These distributions are frequently incorrectly interpreted and
the Unified Growth Theory is an outstanding example of such common
misconceptions. It is shown here that the fundamental postulates of this theory
are contradicted by the data used in its formulation. The postulated three
regimes of growth did not exist and there was no takeoff at any time. It is
demonstrated that features interpreted as three regimes of growth represent
just mathematical properties of a single, monotonically-increasing
distribution, indicating that a single mechanism should be used to explain the
historical economic growth. It is shown that using different socio-economic
conditions for different perceived parts of the historical GDP/cap data is
irrelevant and scientifically unjustified. The GDP/cap growth was indeed
increasing slowly over a long time and fast over a short time but these
features represent a single, uniform and uninterrupted growth process, which
should be interpreted as whole using a single mechanism of growth.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, 5945 word
Hyperbolic Growth of the World Population in the Past 12,000 Years
Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years
are analysed. It is shown that, if unchecked, population does not increase
exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three
approximately-determined episodes of hyperbolic growth: 10,000-500 BC, AD
500-1200 and AD 1400-1950, representing a total of about 89% of the past 12,000
years. It also reveals three demographic transitions: 500 BC-AD 500, AD
1200-1400 and AD 1950-present, representing the remaining 11% of the past
12,000 years. The first two transitions were between sustained hyperbolic
trajectories. The current transition is to an unknown trajectory. There was
never any form of dramatic transition from stagnation to growth, described
often as a takeoff, because there was no stagnation in the growth of the world
population. Correct understanding of the historical growth of human population
is essential in the correct interpretation of the historical growth of income
per capita.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, 4995 word
Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future
Growth of the world population and the world economic growth were hyperbolic
in the past 2,000,000 years. Recently, from around 1950, they started to be
diverted to slower trajectories but they are still close to the historical
hyperbolic trajectories. Regional growth of population and regional economic
growth were also hyperbolic. Hyperbolic growth can be slow over a long time and
fast over a short time but it is still the same, monotonically increasing,
growth. It is incorrect to interpret slow growth as stagnation and fast growth
as explosion, each controlled by different mechanisms of growth. Hyperbolic
growth has to be interpreted as a whole and the same mechanism has to be
applied to the slow and to the fast growth. The Anthropocene is characterised
by the rapid growth of population, rapid economic growth and rapid consumption
of natural resources. The origin of the Anthropocene can be explained as the
natural consequence of hyperbolic growth. However, while its dramatic impacts
became apparent only recently its starting point cannot be mathematically
determined. Its beginning could be traced to the dawn of the existence of
hominines. Its future is insecure because it is dictated by many critical
trends shaping the future or our planet, but notably because the size of the
world population is predicted to continue to increase at least until the end of
the current century to a possibly unsustainable level and because the world
economic growth follows now an unsustainable trajectory.Comment: 14 figures, 1 table, 11,148 word
Changing the Direction of the Economic and Demographic Research
A simple but useful method of reciprocal values is introduced, explained and
illustrated. This method simplifies the analysis of hyperbolic distributions,
which are causing serious problems in the demographic and economic research. It
allows for a unique identification of hyperbolic distributions and for
unravelling components of more complicated trajectories. This method is
illustrated by a few examples. They show that fundamental postulates of the
demographic and economic research are contradicted by data, even by precisely
the same data, which are used in this research. The generally accepted
postulates are based on the incorrect understanding of hyperbolic
distributions, which characterise the historical growth of population and the
historical economic growth. In particular, data used, but never analysed,
during the formulation of the Unified Growth Theory show that this theory is
based on fundamentally incorrect premises and thus is fundamentally defective.
Application of this simple method of analysis points to new directions in the
demographic and economic research. It suggests simpler interpretations of the
mechanism of growth. The concept or the evidence of the past primitive and
difficult living conditions, which might be perhaps described as some kind of
stagnation, is not questioned or disputed. It is only demonstrated that
trajectories of the past economic growth and of the growth of population were
not reflecting any form of stagnation and thus that they were not shaped by
these primitive and difficult living conditions. The concept or evidence of an
explosion in technology, medicine, education and in the improved living
conditions is not questioned or disputed. It is only demonstrated that this
possible explosion is not reflected in the trajectories of the economic growth
and of the growth of population.Comment: 20 pages,10 figures, 11729 word
Mathematical analysis of historical income per capita distributions
Data describing historical growth of income per capita [Gross Domestic
Product per capita (GDP/cap)] for the world economic growth and for the growth
in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America
are analysed. They follow closely the linearly-modulated hyperbolic
distributions represented by the ratios of hyperbolic distributions obtained by
fitting the GDP and population data. Results of this analysis demonstrate that
income per capita was increasing monotonically. There was no stagnation and
there were no transitions from stagnation to growth. The usually postulated
dramatic escapes from the Malthusian trap never happened because there was no
trap. Unified Growth Theory is fundamentally incorrect because its central
postulates are contradicted repeatedly by data, which were used but never
analysed during the formulation of this theory. The large body of
readily-available data opens new avenues for the economic and demographic
research. They show that certain fundamental postulates revolving around the
concept of Malthusian stagnation need to be replaced by the evidence-based
interpretations. Within the range of analysable data, which for the growth of
population extends down to 10,000 BC, growth of human population and economic
growth were hyperbolic. There was no Malthusian stagnation and there were no
transitions to distinctly faster trajectories. Industrial Revolution had no
impact on changing growth trajectories.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, 8331 word
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