Voorspelbaarheid van evolutie en revolutie

Het voorspellen van gebeurtenissen doen we meestal op grond van ervaringen uit het verleden. Daarmee vertel ik niets nieuws. Voorspellen is een dagelijkse bezigheid in onze samenleving. Meteorologen voorspellen elke dag het weer, met wisselend succes. Beleggers zouden graag ontwikkelingen op de fi nanciële markten voorspellen, om snel en gemakkelijk rijk te worden. Maar voorspellen kan erg lastig zijn. En zoals Lawrence Peter “Yogi” Berra, een beroemde catcher van de New York Yankees en later manager van deze honkbalclub al zei: Voorspellen is vooral lastig als het om de toekomst gaat. Yogi Berra is zeer beroemd om oneliners zoals deze, dat is een van de redenen dat de stripfi guur Yogi Beer naar hem vernoemd is. Maar deze quote, hoewel door Berra beroemd geworden, is zeer waarschijnlijk niet van hemzelf. Internetbronnen geven aan dat de quote afkomstig zou zijn van beroemde schrijvers als George Bernard Shaw, of Mark Twain, of zelfs al duizenden jaren oud is en afkomstig van Confucius. Maar waarschijnlijk komt de quote van Niels Bohr, een van de grondleggers van de atoomfysica en kwantummechanica, en Nobelprijswinnaar in 1922. Bohr’s werk en dat van tijdgenoten a

Host adaptation and transmission of influenza A viruses in mammals

A wide range of influenza A viruses of pigs and birds have infected humans in the last decade, sometimes with severe clinical consequences. Each of these so-called zoonotic infections provides an opportunity for virus adaptation to the new host. Fortunately, most of these human infections do not yield viruses with the ability of sustained human-to-human transmission. However, animal influenza viruses have acquired the ability of sustained transmission between humans to cause pandemics on rare occasions in the past, and therefore, influenza virus zoonoses continue to represent threats to public health. Numerous recent studies have shed new light on the mechanisms of adaptation and transmission of avian and swine influenza A viruses in mammals. In particular, several studies provided insights into the genetic and phenotypic traits of

Epidemiological and genetic investigations of human-to-human transmission of zoonotic influenza viruses.

In September 2013, leptospirosis was diagnosed in two Spanish travellers returning from Thailand. The first case walked in floodwater in the Phi Phi Islands in pouring rain: 20 days later he presented with fever and acute hepatitis. The second presented with fever and renal failure 17 days after visiting the islands. These cases remind clinicians to consider leptospirosis in febrile patients with a history of contact with flood or fresh water while travelling to tropical countries

Towards universal influenza vaccines?

Vaccination is the most cost-effective way to reduce the considerable disease burden of seasonal influenza. Although seasonal influenza vaccines are effective, their performance in the elderly and immunocompromised individuals would benefit from improvement. Major problems related to the development and production of pandemic influenza vaccines are response time and production capacity as well as vaccine efficacy and safety. Several improvements can be envisaged. Vaccine production technologies based on embryonated chicken eggs may be replaced by cell culture techniques. Reverse genetics techniques can speed up the generation of seed viruses and new mathematical modelling methods improve vaccine strain selection. Better understanding of the correlates of immune-mediated protection may lead to new vaccine targets besides the viral haemagglutinin, like the neuraminidase and M2 proteins. In addition, the role of cell-mediated immunity could be better exploited. New adjuvants have recently been shown to increase the breadth and the duration of influenza vaccine-induced protection. Other studies have shown that influenza vaccines based on different viral vector systems may also induce broad protection. It is to be expected that these developments may lead to more universal influenza vaccines that elicit broader and longer protection, and can be produced more efficiently

Dynamics of Airborne Influenza A Viruses Indoors and Dependence on Humidity

There is mounting evidence that the aerosol transmission route plays a significant role in the spread of influenza in temperate regions and that the efficiency of this route depends on humidity. Nevertheless, the precise mechanisms by which humidity might influence transmissibility via the aerosol route have not been elucidated. We hypothesize that airborne concentrations of infectious influenza A viruses (IAVs) vary with humidity through its influence on virus inactivation rate and respiratory droplet size. To gain insight into the mechanisms by which humidity might influence aerosol transmission, we modeled the size distribution and dynamics of IAVs emitted from a cough in typical residential and public settings over a relative humidity (RH) range of 10–90%. The model incorporates the size transformation of virus-containing droplets due to evaporation and then removal by gravitational settling, ventilation, and virus inactivation. The predicted concentration of infectious IAVs in air is 2.4 times higher at 10% RH than at 90% RH after 10 min in a residential setting, and this ratio grows over time. Settling is important for removal of large droplets containing large amounts of IAVs, while ventilation and inactivation are relatively more important for removal of IAVs associated with droplets <5 µm. The inactivation rate increases linearly with RH; at the highest RH, inactivation can remove up to 28% of IAVs in 10 min. Humidity is an important variable in aerosol transmission of IAVs because it both induces droplet size transformation and affects IAV inactivation rates. Our model advances a mechanistic understanding of the aerosol transmission route, and results complement recent studies on the relationship between humidity and influenza's seasonality. Maintaining a high indoor RH and ventilation rate may help reduce chances of IAV infection

Antigenic evolution of SARS coronavirus 2

SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID-19, emerged in China in December 2019. Vaccines developed were very effective initially, however, the virus has shown remarkable evolution with multiple variants spreading globally over the last three years. Nowadays, newly emerging Omicron lineages are gaining substitutions at a fast rate, resulting in escape from neutralization by antibodies that target the Spike protein. Tools to map the impact of substitutions on the further antigenic evolution of SARS-CoV-2, such as antigenic cartography, may be helpful to update SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. In this review, we focus on the antigenic evolution of SARS-CoV-2, highlighting the impact of Spike protein substitutions individually and in combination on immune escape.</p