The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off

macroeconomics, New Keynsesian Economics, Output-Inflation Trade-off

Historical Perspectives on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

This paper examines changes over time in the importance of the lending channel in the transmission of monetary shocks to the real economy. We first use a simple extension of the Bernanke-Blinder model to isolate the observable factors that affect the strength of the lending channel. We then show that based on changes in the structure of banks assets, reserve requirements, and the composition of external firm finance, the lending channel should have been stronger before 1929 than during the post-World War II period, especially the first half of this period. Finally, we demonstrate that conventional indicators of the importance of the lending channel, such as the spread between the loan rate and the bond rate and the correlation between loans and output, do not show the predicted decline in the importance of lending over time. From this we conclude that either the traditional indicators are not useful measures of the strength of the lending channel or that the lending channel has not been quantitatively important in any era.

Emergence of heterogeneity and political organization in information exchange networks

We present a simple model of the emergence of the division of labor and the development of a system of resource subsidy from an agent-based model of directed resource production with variable degrees of trust between the agents. The model has three distinct phases, corresponding to different forms of societal organization: disconnected (independent agents), homogeneous cooperative (collective state), and inhomogeneous cooperative (collective state with a leader). Our results indicate that such levels of organization arise generically as a collective effect from interacting agent dynamics, and may have applications in a variety of systems including social insects and microbial communities.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

A COMPARISON OF PEDALING MECHANICS IN EXPERIENCED POSE AND TRADITIONAL CYCLISTS

The purpose of this study was to describe the mechanical differences between two experienced male Pose cyclists and traditional cyclists. Pose cycling requires a specific set-up that attempts to place the centre of mass over the pedal to increase the non-muscular force/power component during the downstroke. Results revealed that for the Pose cyclists the centre of mass was closer to vertically above the pedal when in the horizontal forward position. Non-muscular contributions to pedal power tended to be greater in the Pose cyclists compared to the traditional cyclists. In addition, we found joint differences in the power contribution to pedal power in the traditional cyclists who relied more heavily on contributions from the muscles spanning the knee joint, whereas Pose cyclists had greater ankle and hip power contributions

Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal

This paper presents and implements statistical tests of stock market forecastability and volatility that are immune from the severe statistical problems of earlier tests. Although the null hypothesis of strict market efficiency is rejected, the evidence against the hypothesis is not overwhelming. That is, the data do not provide evidence of gross violations of the conventional valuation model.

Number counts in homogeneous and inhomogeneous dark energy models

In the simple case of a constant equation of state, redshift distribution of collapsed structures may constrain dark energy models. Different dark energy models having the same energy density today but different equations of state give quite different number counts. Moreover, we show that introducing the possibility that dark energy collapses with dark matter (``inhomogeneous'' dark energy) significantly complicates the picture. We illustrate our results by comparing four dark energy models to the standard $\Lambda$-model. We investigate a model with a constant equation of state equal to -0.8, a phantom energy model and two scalar potentials (built out of a combination of two exponential terms). Although their equations of state at present are almost indistinguishable from a $\Lambda$-model, both scalar potentials undergo quite different evolutions at higher redshifts and give different number counts. We show that phantom dark energy induces opposite departures from the $\Lambda$-model as compared with the other models considered here. Finally, we find that inhomogeneous dark energy enhances departures from the $\Lambda$-model with maximum deviations of about 15% for both number counts and integrated number counts. Larger departures from the $\Lambda$-model are obtained for massive structures which are rare objects making it difficult to statistically distinguish between models.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures. Version accepted for publication in A&

Clusters of Galaxies: New Results from the CLEF Hydrodynamics Simulation

Preliminary results are presented from the CLEF hydrodynamics simulation, a large (N=2(428)^3 particles within a 200 Mpc/h comoving box) simulation of the LCDM cosmology that includes both radiative cooling and a simple model for galactic feedback. Specifically, we focus on the X-ray properties of the simulated clusters at z=0 and demonstrate a reasonable level of agreement between simulated and observed cluster scaling relations.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Advances in Space Research (proceedings of the COSPAR 2004 Assembly, Paris