Belief elicitation when more than money matters

Incentive compatible mechanisms for eliciting beliefs typically presume that money is the only argument in people's utility functions. However, subjects may also have non-monetary objectives that confound the mechanisms. In particular, psychologists have argued that people favour bets where their skill is involved over equivalent random bets -- a so-called preference for control. We propose a new belief elicitation method which mitigates the control preference. With the help of this method, we find that under the ostensibly incentive compatible probability matching mechanism (Grether (1981) and Karni (2009)), subjects report beliefs 7% higher than their true beliefs in order to increase their control. Non-monetary objectives account for at least 27% of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. Our paper also contributes to a refined understanding of control

Morals in Multi-Unit Markets

We examine how the erosion of morals, norms, and norm compliance in markets depends on the market power of individual traders. Previously studied markets allow traders to exchange at most one unit and provide market power to individual traders by de-activating two forces: (i) the replacement logic, whereby immoral trading is justified by the belief that others would trade otherwise and (ii) market selection, by which the least moral trader determines aggregate quantities. In an experiment, we compare single-unit to (more common) multi-unit markets, which may activate these forces. Multi-unit markets, in contrast to single-unit markets, lead to a complete erosion of morals. This is associated primarily with a deterioration in norm compliance: the observed level of immoral trade is in contrast with the prevailing social norm. The replacement logic is the main mechanism driving this finding

Belief elicitation when more than money matters

Incentive compatible mechanisms for eliciting beliefs typically presume that money is the only argument in people's utility functions. However, subjects may also have non-monetary objectives that confound the mechanisms. In particular, psychologists have argued that people favour bets where their skill is involved over equivalent random bets -- a so-called preference for control. We propose a new belief elicitation method which mitigates the control preference. With the help of this method, we find that under the ostensibly incentive compatible probability matching mechanism (Grether (1981) and Karni (2009)), subjects report beliefs 7% higher than their true beliefs in order to increase their control. Non-monetary objectives account for at least 27% of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. Our paper also contributes to a refined understanding of control

Outcome of liver transplantation with grafts from brain-dead donors treated with dual hypothermic oxygenated machine perfusion, with particular reference to elderly donors

Prompted by the utilization of extended criteria donors, dual hypothermic oxygenated machine perfusion (D‐HOPE) was introduced in liver transplantation to improve preservation. When donors after neurological determination of death (DBD) are used, D‐HOPE effect on graft outcomes is unclear. To assess D‐HOPE value in this setting and to identify ideal scenarios for its use, data on primary adult liver transplant recipients from January 2014 to April 2021 were analyzed using inverse probability of treatment weighting, comparing outcomes of D‐HOPE‐treated grafts (n = 121) with those preserved by static cold storage (n = 723). End‐ischemic D‐HOPE was systematically applied since November 2017 based on donor and recipient characteristics and transplant logistics. D‐HOPE use was associated with a significant reduction of early allograft failure (OR: 0.24; 0.83; p = .024), grade ≥3 complications (OR: 0.57; p = .046), comprehensive complication index (−7.20 points; p = .003), and improved patient and graft survival. These results were confirmed in the subset of elderly donors (>75‐year‐old). Although D‐HOPE did not reduce the incidence of biliary complications, its use was associated with a reduced severity of ischemic cholangiopathy. In conclusion, D‐HOPE improves postoperative outcomes and reduces early allograft loss in extended criteria DBD grafts