Asset Substitutability and the Impact of Federal Deficits

In this paper, the role of asset substitutability in determining the impact of debt-financed federal deficits is examined. The issues are first discussed in the context of a simple analytical model in which financial assets are disaggregated into money, federal debt,and corporate bonds. In this model, it is shown that depending on the degree of substitutability among financial assets, a range of possible outcomes associated with a change in the federal deficit is possible.Next, the issue of asset substitutability is examine dempirically in a disaggregated structural model of the Treasury security,corporate bond, and equity markets. Using this model, the implications of larger debt-financed federal deficits are then examined in a series of simulation experiments.

The Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements under Alternative Operating Prosedures and Reserve Requirement Systems

The response of interest rates to money announcement surprises is examined both theoretically and empirically in this paper. In the theoretical models developed, not only changes in operating procedures, but also reserve requirement systems, are found to potentially affect the response. Moreover, under the current two-week contemporaneous reserve requirements (CRR) adopted in February 1984, the responses in the first and second weeks of the two-week reserve maintenance period may differ. The empirical results generally conform to the predictions of the theoretical models. The response of the Treasury bill yield to money announcement surprises changed significantly following changes in either operating procedures or reserve requirement systems in October 1979, October 1982, and February 1984.

Intraday Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Movements: News or Noise?

Intraday movements in the yen/dollar rate are examined over the 1980-86 period using opening and closing quotes in the New York and Tokyo markets. The results indicate that random-walk behavior is violated about half of the time in various subsamples. However, the economic significance of departures from the random-walk model diminishes over time. Large jumps in the exchange rate also are examined, and some evidence on subsequent mean reversion is presented. Finally, the response of Japanese and U.S. stock prices suggests that intraday yen/dollar rate movements do contain at least some relevant information.

Unanticipated Money and Interest Rates

Evidence on the relationship between unanticipated money and interestrates has been provided by two types of studies. First, several researchers have investigated the relationship using quarterly data. Second, a number of researchers have examined the effect of money announcement surprises on interest rates. In both instances, the correlation between money surprises and interest rates has usually been found to be non-negative.This paper first provides an interpretation of the correlation between unanticipated money and interest rates in terms of Federal Reserve policy objectives and operating procedures. Then, the correlation of unanticipated money and both short- and long-term interest rates is examined over weekly intervals, combining several aspects of the previous quarterly and announcement studies. In addition, the distinction between unpredicted and unperceived money also is considered.

Temporal Variation in the Interest-Rate Response to Money Announcements

A number of studies find significant temporal variation in the interest-rate response to money announcement surprises. An unresolved question, however, is whether the response changes immediately as different policy regimes are adopted, or whether the change is gradual reflecting the establishment of Federal Reserve credibility. This paper conducts tests that allow for both discrete shifts in the interest-rate response to money announcements and a gradual evolution in this response. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that temporal variation in the interest-rate response is limited to discrete shifts in October 1979, October 1982, arid February 1984.

Federal Reserve Behavior Since 1980: A Financial Markets Perspective

The financial market's understanding of Federal Reserve behavior is used to examine recent changes in monetary policy. Changes in the level of interest rats in response to specific types of economic information are primarily considered. Differences in the volatility of interest rates across period provide additional evidence on changes in monetary policy regimes. The results indicate that monetary policy changed several times since 1980 with respect to either the Federal Reserve's targets, its desire to achieve its targets, or its operating procedures. The different regimes correspond to Federal Reserve statements about changes in policy. In this context, then, the evidence suggests that policy was credible.